Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Top Daily Sportsbook Offers 8/11/23

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Hold onto your butts because another mammoth MLB Friday hits the calendar with 13 games loaded up onto today’s main slate ticket! There are no shortage of ways to attack this one with a slew of great pitching options and just as many viable offensive stacks. Outside of potential trouble in the STL @ KC game, there will be minimal weather issues to worry about as well -- that’s always welcomed on a slate of this magnitude! Let’s have some fun and try to crack the code today. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• DET @ BOS (7:10 ET): Winds OUT to right/center around 10 mph.

• ATL @ NYM (7:10 ET): Winds OUT to right at 5-10 mph.

• MIL @ CWS (8:10 ET): Winds IN from right at 10+ mph.

• STL @ KC (8:10 ET): This looks to be the sole game to monitor closely today. Some heavy pop-up storms may threaten a washout in KC tonight, but there’s also a decent chance the forecast clears up closer to game time and they’d be able to get this one played. If they can play, temps will be around 100 degrees at first pitch, however, swirling 10-15 mph winds will be blowing IN from center/left for much of the evening. Still, this is the only game on the slate with a double-digit over/under (11 O/U), so it sets up as a great spot for hitters if they do play. We’ll keep the bats in play for DFS for now.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $10k, FD: $10.6k | vs. BAL

We’ve got a few stud pitchers to choose from today but I’ll be interested to see if Castillo goes slightly overlooked following a poor outing on the road against the Angels last Friday. He’ll also be facing an Orioles squad that boasts the best record in the AL at 71-44. Castillo will be making his first home start since July 19th and he’s been at his best when on the mound at the pitcher-friendly T-Mobiles Park (#3 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season). Let’s give his home/away splits a quick run-through:

Home: 2.79 ERA, 3.14 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, .196 opp AVG, 31.3% kRate

Away: 3.75 ERA, 4.24 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, .236 opp AVG, 23.8% kRate

So he’s gone from a strong starter on the road to lights out at home -- for DFS purposes, the noticeable jump in his kRate at home is the big sweetener.

Getting to the match-up with the Orioles -- while it may not seem ideal, it’s worth pointing out how poorly the O’s have been playing against RHPs on the road as of late. Over the last month against righties on the road (259 PA), Baltimore has hit just .225 with an MLB-worst .266 wOBA and 65 wRC+ to go along with an MLB-high 29.7% kRate in that stretch. If Baltimore’s road woes against RHPs continue, while Castillo’s positive home splits continue, then he could easily end the night as the top-scoring pitcher on the slate. The Mariners are solid -142 ML favorites today and the Orioles will be pinned with a slate-low 3.4 implied runs.

Kyle Gibson (RHP), BAL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.6k | @ SEA

We’ll move over to highlight the aforementioned Luis Castillo’s counterpart, Kyle Gibson, out of the mid-range. It looks like Lance Lynn (DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.9k) will be the “chalk du jour” at pitcher today as he faces a sputtering Rockies offense at his new home ballpark in L.A. I don’t necessarily hate it for cash games, but I’m not sure I can stomach a potentially 40+% owned Lance Lynn in GPPs given the way he has pitched this season. So we’ll pivot down to Kyle Gibson at much lower ownership (DK: 10% pOwn%, FD: 2% pOwn%) who has been in some solid form as of late. Over his last four starts (three on the road), Gibson has procured a 3.24 ERA, 2.54 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, .207 opp AVG, and 27.6% kRate while allowing a low 20.0% HardContact%. Seeing his xFIP in the mid-2s is a really encouraging indicator of just how well he has been pitching lately.

This match-up carries a slate-low 7.5 over/under so we could easily see a low-scoring pitcher’s duel between Castillo and Gibson this evening. The Mariners have been hitting RHPs well over the last month, ranking 7th with a 116 wRC+. However, they also strike out a ton, and their 27.4% kRate vs. RHPs in that same span is the 5th highest in MLB. The Mariners also have the 4th highest kRate against Gibson’s primary pitch mix of sinker, changeup, sweeper, and cutter. Admittedly, the floor can be quite low for Gibson in this spot, but he’ll also have some legitimate 25 DKFP/40 FDFP upside at very low ownership.

Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT | DK: $7k, FD: $9.3k | vs. CIN

There are several value arms worth considering on this slate and Oviedo is going to land firmly on the SP2 radar on DraftKings where his $7,000 price tag looks like a potential steal given his recent performances. Spanning his last five starts, Oviedo has come away with a 2.32 ERA, 4.42 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, .147 opp AVG, and 25.4% kRate. He allowed three hits or fewer in four of those five outings and his only hiccup in that stretch came on the road against the Angels -- in the remaining four games, he put up at least 21.3 DKFP/40 FDFP and reached a ceiling of 30.8 DKFP/52 FDFP. The walks have been an issue (11.0% BB% L5Starts) but Oviedo has shown a reduced walk rate at home (7.7% BB%) this season.

Folks may see all those young stud hitters on the Reds’ roster and avoid playing pitchers against them, but they’ve been a rather pedestrian offense against righties as of late, while also striking out at a very high rate. Against RHPs in the last two weeks, the Reds are hitting just .232 (ranks 22nd) with a 90 wRC+ (20th) to go along with a massive 30.3% kRate (highest in MLB). I love the upside from Oviedo in this spot.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $11.2k, FD: $10.8k | @ CWS

Blake Snell (LHP), SD | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11k | @ ARI

Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.5k | vs. LAA

Lance Lynn (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.9k | vs. COL

Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.4k | @ WAS

Joan Adon (RHP), WAS | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.4k | vs. OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), MIN

+ Phillies: 4.9 implied runs (ranks T-5th on the slate).

+ Keuchel has made just one MLB start this season (vs. ARI: 5.0 IP, 8 H, 2 BB, 1 ER, 0 K) and pitched well in 32.0 IP in AAA this year, but dating back to the start of the 2022 MLB season, Keuchel posted a porous 8.63 ERA, 2.06 WHIP, .352 opp AVG, and .417 opp wOBA.

+ In six MLB road starts last season, Keuchel was abysmal: 13.70 ERA, 2.48 WHIP, .395 opp AVG, .468 opp wOBA, and 2.30 HR/9.

+ The Phillies have been swinging some hot bats over the last week: .393 wOBA, .299 ISO, and 150 wRC+.

+ At home against LHPs over the last month (190 PA), the Phillies have put up a ..367 wOBA, .204 ISO, and 130 wRC+.

+ The Twins have had a below-average bullpen over the last month.

- As mentioned, Keuchel did look solid in Triple-A this season (32.0 IP), posting a 1.69 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and garnered a 6-0 record -- despite giving up some hits, he also surrendered just the one run to the D-Backs this past Sunday.

- Citizens Bank Park has been the #4 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

Favorite PHI Bats: Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, Trea Turner

Bargain Bat: Johan Rojas

Atlanta Braves vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

+ Braves: 5.2 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

+ Megill has been in some awful form spanning his last seven MLB starts: 7.89 ERA, 5.16 xFIP, 2.09 WHIP, .348 opp AVG, and .412 opp wOBA.

+ Braves rank 1st in the MLB vs. RHPs L2Weeks with the following offensive metrics: .327 AVG, .986 OPS, .411 wOBA, .269 ISO, and 160 wRC+.

+ Mets bullpen has ranked bottom-10 both on the season and over the last month.

- Megill has been MUCH better at home (+127.7% more FPPG) this season where he has a 2.79 ERA versus an 8.20 ERA on the road.

- Citi Field has been the #3 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season, though, there will be some 5-10 mph winds blowing out tonight.

- Core Braves bats remain very expensive.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies

Bargain Bat: Michael Harris II

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

+ Every Astros hitter has a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Detmers has been in some poor form over his last five starts: 8.61 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, .305 opp AVG, .419 opp wOBA, 2.70 HR/9 Rate, 38.8% HardContact%.

+ Detmers has been less effective on the road (-56.7% less FPPG).

+ Astros have been a top-five offense vs. LHPs over the last month: .282 AVG (4th), .834 OPS (3rd), .357 wOBA (3rd), .214 ISO (3rd), and 130 wRC+ (3rd).

+ Over the last two weeks, the Angels bullpen owns a 1.66 WHIP, 1.75 HR/9 Rate, and an MLB-worst 5.17 xFIP.

-/+ Astros: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-12th on the slate).

- The Astros have been less effective at home (4.45 runs/gm) than on the road (5.13 runs/gm).

Favorite HOU Bats: Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez

Bargain Bat: Yainer Diaz

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $4.9k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Scott Alexander (LHP), SF

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

2B Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

2B/SS Trevor Story, BOS | DK: $5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

2B Ha-Seong Kim, SD | DK: $5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Nick Castellanos, PHI | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), MIN

OF Lars Nootbaar, STL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Dylan Coleman (RHP), KC

2B/OF Whit Merrifield, TOR | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

OF TJ Friedl, CIN | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT

2B Zack Gelof, OAK | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Joan Adon (RHP), WAS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

C Willson Contreras, STL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Dylan Coleman (RHP), KC

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, PIT | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

C Ryan Jeffers, MIN | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Christopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

3B/OF Kike Hernandez, LAD | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Rob Refsnyder, BOS | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

2B/3B Andruw Monasterio, MIL | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

2B/SS Pablo Reyes, BOS | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

OF Johan Rojas, PHI | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), MIN

OF Jordan Luplow, MIN | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Christopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Jose Altuve MORE than 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Freddie Freeman MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!