Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/10 | Happy Hump Day!

August 10, 2022

Justin Verlander & Coors Field bats are the obvious plays today, but where else should we look?

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s never a bad day when you have some all-day baseball to keep you entertained from lunchtime til bedtime. The main slate will feature nine games in the evening window (note: FanDuel will not include the CWS @ KC game on their main slate). A pair of aces headline the pitcher player pool with Justin Verlander and Sandy Alcantara taking the mound today. Behind those two, many of the pitching options become noticeably more questionable. But that also means we’ll have a slew of viable stack options to choose from on a slate that also features a juicy-looking Coors Field match-up. Time to dive in!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

The same two spots that gave us some concern yesterday (BAL & PHI) will once again be the two game locations to keep an eye on today.

TOR @ BAL (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): A fairly expansive storm system looks to move through the Baltimore area right around first pitch. They could be looking at a lengthy delay/late start here but there is some hope that they’ll eventually be able to get this game in. We’ll for sure need to see how things are shaping up closer to game time.

MIA @ PHI (7:05 ET, 7 O/U): Storms are possible but likely not until the later innings. As long as the weather holds off, both pitchers and bats should be safe but we’ll need to double-check closer to first pitch here as well.

STL @ COL (8:40 ET, 12 O/U): The bats in the best hitter’s ballpark get an additional boost due to some hot 90+ degree temperatures and 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left field.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.2k | @ PHI

Reminder: Keep an eye on the weather here since there is some risk of a mid-game delay.

The obvious spend-up at pitcher today will be Justin Verlander ($10.5k/$11.3k) who draws the better match-up at home. Alcantara gets the tougher draw against a Phillies offense that has been hitting the ball very well recently (.365 wOBA, 134 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Wks). However, in three starts (22.0 IP) against Philadelphia this season, Alcantara has maintained a 2.45 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP, and 25.6% kRate. If he played for a better team, he’d likely be a shoo-in for the NL Cy Young award because he’s having a stellar season. As it stands, he makes plenty of sense as a high-level pivot from Verlander. He won’t be an “under the radar” play by any means but he may very well end up carrying around half the ownership of Verlander today.

Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.3k | vs. PIT

You know it’s a tough day for pitching when MadBum gets a highlight. Whether it’s match-up concerns, coming off of injury, terrible form, ballpark factor, or concerning home/road splits, there are just red flags all over the place once you get past Verlander/Alcantara. However, there are a couple of reasons to like Bumgarner today. He draws nearly the best match-up a left-hander could ask for. Over the last month vs. LHPs, the Pirates have a measly .207 AVG, .268 wOBA, and 72 wRC+ alongside a lofty 27.0% kRate. Bumgarner is also set up at home today where he has a decent 3.31 ERA and 1.28 WHIP while averaging +40.0% more fantasy points per game. He’s not much for strikeouts but we can likely get five or six solid innings out of MadBum today. He’s shown the ability to pitch well against bad offenses several times this season.

Kris Bubic (LHP), KC | DK: $5.5k, FD: N/A | vs. CWS

This will be a DraftKings SP2 GPP-only punt but it’s another dart throw that may land relatively close to the bullseye. In his last four starts (26.0 IP), Bubic has been quite impressive, pitching his way to a 2.42 ERA, 3.87 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, .187 opp AVG, and 20.0% kRate in that span. Two of those starts came against elite offenses in the Blue Jays and Yankees. The strange thing about Bubic is how insanely bad his reverse splits are. Against RHBs, he’s actually pretty decent: 3.99 xFIP, .311 wOBA, 1.34 WHIP. Whereas against LHBs, he has an abysmal 6.69 xFIP, .467 wOBA, and 2.34 WHIP. The White Sox are only rolling out one pure lefty hitter in their lineup today and, as a team, they rank 25th with an 80 wRC+ vs. LHPs over the last month. It’s a sneaky decent spot for Bubic to keep posting solid results.

Also Consider:

Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.3k | vs. TEX

Kyle Wright (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.4k | @ BOS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), STL

Non-Coors Stacks to Consider

 

Atlanta Braves vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

There are not many positives to speak of when it comes to Nick Pivetta and how he has been pitching lately. Since July 5th (six starts, 29.0 IP), he has racked up an 8.69 ERA, .365 opp AVG, .442 opp wOBA, 2.03 WHIP, and 2.20 HR/9 Rate. Following Pivetta will be a Boston bullpen that has an MLB-worst 5.79 ERA over the last two weeks. Boston had to go deep into their bullpen in last night’s extra-inning game. Seven Red Sox relievers were utilized in total with five of them throwing at least 20 pitches. You have to imagine that they’ll have a depleted bullpen to go to today so, if Atlanta can jump on Pivetta early, there is some big potential to be had.

BOS Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite ATL Bats: Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson | Sneaky Bat: Vaughn Grissom (6% pOwn%)

Houston Astros vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX

The lineup hasn’t been clicking top to bottom but we should look for some good results out of the primary Astros bats today. While he’s not a terrible arm, Glenn Otto just isn’t particularly good either and he has shown some noticeably bad reverse splits. Against RHBs this season, he has a 6.14 ERA, .385 opp wOBA, and 1.61 WHIP. That won’t necessarily rule out the lefty bats like Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker from stack consideration, but instead, the RHBs get a decent bump in their outlook for this evening.

TEX Bullpen Rating: 5/10

Favorite HOU Bats: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez | Sneaky Bat: Yuli Gurriel (5% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

Many people know the drill by now. When Jose Berrios is on the road, it’s often not a bad idea to stack against him. In 54.0 IP on the road this season, Berrios has accumulated a poor 7.50 ERA, 4.80 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, .316 opp AVG, and .403 opp wOBA. He isn’t necessarily a lock to play poorly in every away game he pitches but it does happen more often than not. The O’s have also been a top 10 offense against RHPs over the last month and are a young, highly motivated team chasing a playoff spot. They will have to dodge a bit of bad weather today so keep an eye on the forecast once we get closer to first pitch (7:05 ET).

TOR Bullpen Rating: 6/10

Favorite BAL Bats: Anthony Santander, Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins | Sneaky Bat: Terrin Vavra (2% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

SS Trea Turner | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

SS Bo Bichette | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

OF Anthony Santander | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Randal Grichuk | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), STL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Paul DeJong | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

1B/3B Elehuris Montero | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), STL

1B Vinnie Pasquantino | DK: $2.1k, FD: N/A | vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), CWS

2B/3B Charles Leblanc | DK: $2k, FD: $2.5k | vs.Noah Syndergaard (RHP), PHI

2B Terrin Vavra | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Lars Nootbaar | DK: $2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

SS Vaughn Grissom | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Anthony Santander | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

There is some dicey weather around for this game so hopefully they’re able to get all nine innings played. Assuming they play, Santander stands out as a worthy home run pick. His 93.5 mph average exit velocity vs. RHPs in the last two weeks ranks in the 90th percentile and he’s creating 41.4% HardContact% as well. The real draw here is the match-up with Jose Berrios who has been awful on the road, especially against LHBs. Versus LHBs this year, Berrios has a very poor .415 opp wOBA, 5.78 xFIP, and 2.96 HR/9 Rate. 

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Jose Altuve OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +125 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Altuve has multiple hits in five of his last six games and, expanding it even further, he’s cashed the over on this prop in eight of his last 11 games. He’ll face off with Rangers starter Glenn Otto who has been really poor against RHBs this season: 6.14 ERA, .385 opp wOBA, and 1.61 WHIP. Liking the value on this prop at plus money odds.

 

Justin Verlander to Record the Win: Yes | -160 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

I’ll go with the Astros double dip and take Verlander to pick up the win in this game. Verlander already has a 7-1 record in nine home starts this season. The Houston offense should be able to provide some decent run support against Glenn Otto and, from there, Verlander just needs to continue to do Verlander things. Not much analysis is needed here but the Astros are massive -300 favorites in this game and Verlander should be in a great spot to pick up his 16th win of the season.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!