Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 8/1 | Diving Into the First August Slate!

August 01, 2022

To eat the chalk with Mad Max or go elsewhere? Read on to see some potential pivots as well as some offenses to target for today's slate!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s an exciting time in baseball as we turn the page over to the month of August! As the saying goes… new month, new money! The trade deadline also arrives just over 24 hours from now at 6 pm ET tomorrow. Most of the key trade pieces around the league have still yet to be dealt but, barring an unexpectedly low amount of moves being made, quite a few teams are going to look a bit different moving forward.

Here is a website you can bookmark to track all of the MLB trades going down: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/transactions/trade/

In the meantime, we’ve got a sturdy nine-game slate to dissect today. The pitching options are fairly underwhelming today, as a whole, but perhaps that will lead to some additional flexibility when it comes to viable stack options. Let’s have some fun!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

It’s a pretty quiet slate for weather, which is fine by me. There’s only one game to keep an eye on for this slate.

ARI @ CLE (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): There will be some scattered showers around Cleveland this evening which could spark a late start or in-game delay. Skies look to clear up later in the evening so they should get this entire game in tonight. 10+ mph winds blowing OUT to right.

KC @ CWS (8:10 ET, 9 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to left at 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.2k | vs. BOS

There is a clear-cut SP1 on the board today with Max Scherzer, who is sure to check in with around 50% ownership in GPPs. I have no issues eating some Scherzer chalk, but Luis Garcia looks like a strong pivot as well. The Red Sox have posted some pretty terrible road splits in recent weeks, particularly against right-handed pitching. Over the last month against RHPs on the road, they have a league-high 28.8% kRate, a meager .176 AVG, .218 wOBA, .093 ISO, and 38 wRC+ -- ranking dead last in every category. Garcia has been a reliable starting option this season and, heading into this game, he has posted a 28.7% kRate and 1.09 WHIP over his previous five starts while averaging 96.4 pitches/gm. Houston is a heavy -185 favorite at home today and it wouldn’t shock me to see Garcia and Scherzer end the day with roughly the same amount of fantasy points.

Domingo German (RHP), NYY | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.5k | vs. SEA

While he won’t necessarily qualify as a safe option, German deserves some consideration at these salaries. After a pretty disastrous season debut against the Astros, German bounced back in his last outing against the Mets where he allowed two runs over 4.2 IP and, more notably, he recorded seven strikeouts in that time. German is a really solid pitcher when he’s healthy, and he provides some above-average strikeout upside. In recent seasons, he has often been priced as an $8k-$9k pitcher in DFS and he draws his easiest match-up to date in his 2022 Yankees home debut. The Mariners lineup is a lot less scary with All-Star and ROTY favorite Julio Rodriguez (wrist) sidelined along with Ty France (wrist). The Yankees are big -185 favorites in this game as well, and German should see a more expanded workload in his third start of the year (threw 82 pitches last Wednesday). There is some good upside here for a guy priced in the mid-$6k range.

Also Consider:

Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.5k | @ WAS

Jon Gray (RHP), TEX | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10k | vs. BAL

Mike Clevinger (RHP), SD | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.5k | vs. COL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Mets vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Corbin heads into this match-up with a 10.80 ERA, .395 opp AVG, and 2.28 WHIP registered over his previous four starts (16.2 IP). Three of those starts came against the Braves and the Dodgers, but the Mets have been finding something offensively as well. Their .293 AVG and 139 wRC+ over the last two weeks rank second in the MLB. They’ve also had no trouble hitting Corbin with a .292 AVG, .367 wOBA, and .203 ISO against him in 232 plate appearances.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite NYM Bats: Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor | Sneaky Bat: Eduardo Escobar (7% pOwn%)

Houston Astros vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS

The Astros excel against RHPs at home where they’ve posted a 120 wRC+ on the season (2nd best in MLB) and a 135 wRC+ over the last month. In his three starts (13.0 IP) since returning from the IL with a back injury, Eovaldi has racked up a miserable 11.08 ERA with a 2.08 WHIP, .371 opp AVG, and just an 11.9% kRate. Houston is a tough team to strike out to begin with so Eovaldi could be in for another long day on the mound if he’s unable to get those punchouts. Our guy Jasonr345 often calls this Boston pitching elite, but their bullpen’s 1.75 WHIP, .303 opp AVG, and 7.25 ERA over the last two weeks would say otherwise. They’ve also pitched 30.1 innings in the last seven days (2nd most in MLB) so those relief arms may be pretty taxed heading into this game as well.

BOS Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Yuli Gurriel | Sneaky Bat: Jose Altuve (6% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Diego Padres vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

The Padres get the juicy Senzatela match-up but since this game is not in Coors Field, I would not expect much ownership to land here. In many aspects, Senzatela has been pitching worse on the road (6.57 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 66.2% LOB%) than at home (4.02 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, 74.6% LOB%). The Padres have been a really poor offense at home this year (3.67 runs/gm, 93 wRC+) but perhaps they can find some production against Senzatela and a hittable Rockies bullpen.

COL Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite SD Bats: Manny Machado, Luke Voit, Jurickson Profar | Sneaky Bat: Ha-Seong Kim (1% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.4k, FD: $5k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

3B Manny Machado | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

2B/SS Marcus Semien | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Luke Voit | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

OF Daulton Varsho | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

1B/3B Jose Miranda | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

OF Mark Canha | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

1B Yuli Gurriel | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS

OF Yermin Mercedes | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAD

1B Vinnie Pasquantino | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

3B/OF JD Davis | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Manny Machado | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Machado has mashed three homers in his last eight games (two HRs in his last three) alongside a .303 ISO and 40.9% HardContact%. Machado has struggled with strikeouts recently but he’ll get two or three cracks at a low strikeout pitcher in Antonio Senzatela (13.1% kRate vs. RHBs) who has been trending downward when pitching on the road this season. In 20 career at-bats against Senzatela, Machado has a .400 AVG with four XBH, including a home run. Let’s see if he stays hot at the plate tonight.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 Total Bases | -108 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units

Alvarez has hit the over on this prop in four of his last six games and he’s a perfect 4-for-4 against Nathan Eovaldi, which includes a pair of XBH. Yordan has a monster .455 wOBA against RHPs at home this season and the Boston bullpen that will be backing up Eovaldi has been pretty terrible in their own right recently.

 

Domingo German OVER 5.5 Strikeouts | +135 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

German went from 58 pitches in his season debut to 82 pitches thrown in his second 2022 outing last Wednesday. We can look for him to push for a more complete starter’s workload today, perhaps around 90 pitches. That should be enough to pull in at least six strikeouts against a watered-down Mariners lineup that will be without two of their top hitters in Julio Rodriguez and Ty France. German might be able to get three or four strikeouts against three Mariners bats, in particular, today -- Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh, and Jared Kelenic all have at least a 31.7% kRate vs. RHPs this season.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Best of luck out there today, everyone!