Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Happy Friday! We have a ton of commotion on the diamond today with a dozen games landing on the main slate ticket! On the surface, it looks like we’ll have a fairly well-rounded slate on our hands with plenty of great pitching and stacking options to choose from. Looks like few, if any, weather concerns, which is always welcomed. It should be a fun one! Best of luck!

Also, no MLB newsletters on the weekends so I’ll go ahead and say that I hope everyone enjoys the All-Star Break! We’ll reconvene once the regular season action returns next Friday.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

TEX @ WAS (7:05 ET): Some scattered storms around so some sort of delay is a possibility. Adds some risk to starting pitchers.

OAK @ BOS (7:10 ET): Winds OUT to left at 10 mph.

BAL @ MIN (8:10 ET): A bit of rain around in the forecast, so there will be some delay risk here.

STL @ CWS (8:10 ET): Any potential rain looks to hold off until after the game. Cooler temps in the 60s with light winds blowing OUT to right.

COL @ SF (10:15 ET): Winds blowing OUT to left/center near 20 mph. As usual, it must be noted that Oracle Park is designed to mitigate wind impacts, but when they’re this strong, it’s worth mentioning. Cool temps in the 50s.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.6k | @ MIL

Rookie phenoms are not in short supply in Cincy, and Andrew Abbott has been the guy stealing the show on the mound. Through six big league starts, he has boasted a 1.21 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .222 opp wOBA, and 29.4% kRate. Abbott has benefited from a low .190 BABIP, which has led to a much less impressive 4.27 xFIP, but, at the moment, he still ranks in the 95th percentile in opponent expected batting average and 94th percentile in xERA/xwOBA, so many of his expected metrics remain thoroughly impressive.

We’re going to like the match-up that Abbott draws today given how much the Brewers have struggled against lefty pitching this season. Against LHPs, Milwaukee ranks 29th in AVG, last in OPS, 28th in wOBA, 28th in ISO, and 29th in wRC+. Most importantly, for DFS purposes, they’ve struck out at an MLB-high 27.6% kRate (vs. LHPs) this season. It is worth noting that they have made some adjustments and are hitting LHPs better as of late, but they remain in the middle of the pack by most key offensive metrics in more recent sample sizes. Abbott is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but he has looked like one of the more polished rookie pitchers we’ve seen in quite a while and he’s displayed a great DFS floor plus an immense ceiling during his short time in the majors.

Jordan Montgomery (LHP), STL | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.3k | @ CWS

Montgomery sets up well out of the mid-range after showing some excellent consistency over the last month. Spanning his last five starts, Monty has pitched to a 1.38 ERA, 3.49 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, .237 opp wOBA, and 24.8% kRate. Just really solid stuff all around. In that stretch, he has also covered at least six innings in all five games while allowing just one home run and a low 26.7% HardContact%.

The White Sox have been a bottom-10 offense against LHPs over the last month, ranking 21st with a 91 wRC+. Their 25.7% kRate in that span is also the 7th highest in baseball. Montgomery specializes in a sinker (43.3%), changeup (22.5%), and curveball (22.5%) mix. Against that pitch mix (from LHPs), the White Sox rank 26th with a .299 xwOBA, and their 24.8% kRate is the 4th highest in MLB. So, we’ll be looking for Montgomery to continue operating at a consistently solid level tonight.

Cody Bradford (LHP), TEX | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | @ WAS

Here’s another “DraftKings SP2 Preferred $4k Special” for ya. For a $4,000 arm, you’re getting quite a bit of strikeout potential from Bradford, who owns a 27.0% kRate and 12.1% SwStr% in 21.2 IP on the season. The hangup here is that Bradford may not have a traditional starter’s workload today. While he has thrown as many as 90 pitches (twice) in a game this season, he did pitch out of the bullpen four days ago on Monday, throwing 30 pitches over 2.1 IP. Also, match-up-wise, Bradford is up against a Nationals team that may not be overly dangerous offensively, but they are a team that owns an MLB-low 18.7% kRate this season. However, if we look at Washington’s splits versus LHPs over the last month, we’ll see a 21.9% kRate which is not too terribly far off from the MLB average. Expectations should certainly be tempered for Bradford but, if I had to guess, he should still be able to throw around 60-70 pitches and, at this salary (on DK), we’re really just hoping for around 12-15 DKFP. And, who knows, if he can make it through five innings, there’s a good chance he would find himself in line for the win given the Rangers’ heavy -181 ML odds. Sliding Bradford in at SP2 will go a long way in opening up roster flexibility on this huge slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.1k | vs. PIT

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9k | vs. SEA

Aaron Civale (RHP), CLE | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.8k | vs. KC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Texas Rangers vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

+ Rangers: 5.5 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ There’s nothing special about Williams, who has posted a lackluster 4.34 ERA, 4.99 xFIP, 1.42 WHIP, .352 opp wOBA, and 15.7% HR/FB Rate this season.

+ Rangers have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks, ranking 7th in AVG, 8th in OPS, 8th in wOBA, 10th in ISO, and 9th in wRC+.

+ Rangers have an overall 129 wRC+ L2Weeks (ranks 3rd) with a 40.0% HardContact% (also ranks 3rd).

+ Nationals bullpen L2Weeks: 6.33 ERA, 5.07 xFIP, and 1.61 WHIP.

-/+ Rangers have been less effective on the road this season where they have a 107 wRC+ (vs. a 136 wRC+ at home), however, they’re still 3rd in the MLB with 5.47 runs/gm scored on the road.

- Core Rangers bats are fairly pricey.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim

Bargain Bat: Travis Jankowski

San Francisco Giants vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Note: Gomber has not yet been confirmed as the COL starter but seems to be the most likely option.

+ Giants: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-4th on the slate).

+ Gomber certainly gets hurt by the Coors Field effect, but even if we section off his splits on the road, they’re not great: 4.93 ERA, 4.83 xFIP, 1.41 WHIP, .344 opp wOBA, and 1.82 HR/9.

+ Gomber has had some extremely poor reverse splits so there’s no need to shy away from Giants lefties, especially if they possess strong reverse splits -- Gomber vs. LHBs this season: 7.88 ERA, .388 opp AVG, .497 opp wOBA, 2.19 WHIP, 12.8% kRate, and 3.38 HR/9.

+ Rockies bullpen L2Weeks: 7.77 ERA, 4.79 xFIP, and 1.83 WHIP.

+ Plenty of cheap bats in this SF lineup.

-/+ Giants have either been average or above average against LHPs by most key metrics over the last month: .270 AVG (8th), .725 OPS (15th), .322 wOBA (12th), and 102 wRC+ (15th).

-/+ Oracle Park is not a great hitter’s park, however, some 20 mph winds blowing out to left/center should help fly balls travel a bit further, even with the park’s design to mitigate wind impacts.

- Giants haven’t displayed much ‘pop’ versus LHPs this season -- they have just 22 HRs off of lefties (T-6th fewest) and a .130 ISO (ranks 29th).

Favorite SF Bats: Patrick Bailey, Wilmer Flores, JD Davis

Bargain Bat: Austin Slater

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

New York Yankees vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

+ 8-of-9 projected Yankees hitters have a 5% pOwn% or lower.

+ Taillon is trudging through a rough season, sporting a 6.93 ERA, 4.85 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP, .372 opp wOBA, and 1.84 HR/9 Rate.

+ Taillon has allowed 14 barreled balls in the last 30 days, placing him in the bottom 5th percentile.

+ Current Yankees roster vs. Taillon: 51 PA, .295 AVG, .363 wOBA, 9.8% kRate.

-/+ Yankees: 4.4 implied runs (ranks T-11th on the slate).

- Yankees have struggled vs. RHP recently, ranking 24th with an 86 wRC+ L2Weeks.

- Cubs bullpen has been very solid L2Weeks, sporting a 2.78 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 0.60 HR/9.

Favorite NYY Bats: Anthony Rizzo, Anthony Volpe, Harrison Bader

Bargain Bat: Isiah Kiner-Falefa

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

3B/SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), PIT

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), BAL

OF Lane Thomas, WAS | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Cody Bradford (LHP), TEX

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Sam Long (LHP)/Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

1B Anthony Rizzo, NYY | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Justin Turner, BOS | DK: $4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Sam Long (LHP)/Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

2B Andres Gimenez, CLE | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

SS Amed Rosario, CLE | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Sam Long (LHP)/Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

C Patrick Bailey, SF | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

SS Anthony Volpe, NYY | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

3B Evan Longoria, ARI | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), PIT

1B Wilmer Flores, SF | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

2B/OF Tony Kemp, OAK | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k| vs. Brennan Bernardino (LHP)/Brandon Walter (LHP), BOS

OF Corey Julks, HOU | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

3B/OF Isiah Kiner-Falefa, NYY | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Corey Seager MORE than 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Jordan Montgomery LESS than 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!