Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 7/7 | Check the Calendar, It's Takedown Thursday!

July 07, 2022

Find out why Strikeout machine Dylan Cease will likely be giving Detroit a run for their money on Takedown Thursday. Let's get into it...

Pennd By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Time to get things poppin’ on what is a surprisingly beefy Thursday slate. A total of ten games are on deck for the evening slate, however, FanDuel will not feature game two of the PIT @ CIN doubleheader (DraftKings will). We’ve got a nice array of pitching and offensive/stack options to pick from today. Let’s hope the baseball gods are on our side for this one as we try to cook up a winning recipe for this slate!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

No major PPD threats today!

LAA @ BAL (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Small chance of a storm making its way over the park.

NYY @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left.

STL @ ATL (7:20 ET, 9 O/U): Scattered t-storms look to roll through the area which puts a low-end chance for a delay on the table. This game features the warmest weather of the slate as well (mid to upper-80s). Bats are safe, starting pitchers will have some risk.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.4k | vs. CWS

There are a few aces to choose from today but Cease will undoubtedly be the most obvious option on the board. His 34.3% kRate this season is already very impressive but that figure has risen to a monstrous 39.4% kRate when he has pitched at home, which is where he will be today. Over 80% of Cease’s pitches have been either four-seamers or sliders; Detroit’s combined .275 wOBA against those two pitches is the second-lowest in the MLB. He’ll be chalky for sure, but Cease should be in line for another big outing this evening.

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.6k | vs. STL

Note: Do be sure to doublecheck the ATL forecast closer to lock to make sure a mid-game weather delay is not a major risk.

At these mid-range salaries, it is simply too hard to argue against Strider’s upside. His 37.7% kRate not only leads all pitchers on this slate but all MLB starters combined (min. 20 IP). And he backs that elite kRate up with a 16.2% Swinging Strike Rate. He’s working on mixing in a third pitch (changeup) into his arsenal, but as of now, he is certainly a heavy fastball pitcher (68.9% of pitches thrown). And, to be fair, he’s got a strong case to rely on that pitch since it’s normally coming in at 98-101 mph. The Cardinals have plenty of hitting talent within their lineup and they don’t normally offer up a ton of strikeouts, but against four-seam fastballs, they rank 15th with a .310 wOBA and 22nd with a .149 ISO. It’s not necessarily an overly difficult match-up for Strider and the Braves, who check-in as massive -245 favorites today.

Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL | DK: $6.9k, FD: $9.3k | vs. LAA

The value range is pretty desolate today but, with so many strong options up top, it’ll be hard to pass up the aces on this slate. Lyles isn’t exactly cheap on FanDuel so consider this essentially just a DraftKings GPP SP2 play.

Lyles has been pitching decently well, both recently and on the season as a whole. Not spectacular, but decent. The main draw here is the fact that the Angel's offense has gone back to being absolutely abysmal lately. Over the last week, they rank dead last with a .132 AVG, .203 wOBA, and 27 wRC+ with a cartoonishly high 39.4% kRate. And the results do not improve all too much when you extend things beyond just the last week. So, is this a spot where Lyles can deliver a 20+ DKFP performance? I’d say it’s a fair possibility.

Also, Consider:

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.9k | @ BOS

Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.1k | vs. SF

Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10k | vs. CHC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

Ahh, the Braves seem to let me down when they’re in strong spots I can’t pass up the opportunity to highlight them today. The Braves offense is fueled by homers (126 HRs this season, 2nd most) and hard contact (36.3% HardContact%, ranks 1st). Liberatore only has five starts and 20.2 IP in the MLB to go off of, but he has already surrendered four home runs (1.74 HR/9) and is last among today’s starting pitchers with a 43.5% HardContact% and 53.6% HardHit%. In general, the Braves offense is noticeably better against southpaw pitching as well and any number of their bats could take advantage of this match-up today. The downside here stems from the Cardinals bullpen, which has pitched solid lately. But perhaps if Atlanta gets up big early on Liberatore, St. Louis won’t utilize their best relief arms.

STL Bullpen Rating: 6/10

Favorite ATL Bats: Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr., Dansby Swanson | Sneaky Bat: Travis d’Arnaud

Colorado Rockies vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), ARI

Unfortunately for Dallas Keuchel, it’s not 2015 anymore and he no longer stands out as a pitcher to avoid. He’s rocking with an 8.27 ERA, 4.96 xFIP, 2.10 WHIP, and .404 opp wOBA on the season. He also just went up against the Rockies five days ago and gave up six earned runs (seven runs total) in five innings of work. That last outing was at Coors Field but Chase Field still qualifies as a favorable hitter’s park. No one loves stacking up Rockies bats when they’re outside of Coors but perhaps today may be the time to reconsider that thought process.

ARI Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite COL Bats: Connor Joe, Kris Bryant, Brendan Rodgers | Sneaky Bat: Jose Iglesias

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Miami Marlins vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), NYM

The Marlins have been decidedly better at home this season, particularly when facing off against righty pitchers. Their 124 wRC+ vs. RHPs at home ranks second in the MLB and Trevor Williams enters his start tonight in some poor form. Over his last five appearances, he has come away with a 6.23 ERA, 5.21 xFIP, 1.62 WHIP, and .416 opp wOBA while allowing five home runs (3.50 HR/9 Rate). The Mets bullpen also hasn’t been super sharp lately either and, despite some injuries, it isn’t the worst spot for the Marlins bats to turn in one of their random offensively charged games. There are plenty of cheap hitters in this lineup as well which is never a bad thing when it feels like a day where spending up on pitching is the right move.

Mets Bullpen Rating: 7/10

Favorite MIA Bats: Garrett Cooper, Jesus Sanchez, Jon Berti | Sneaky Bat: Joey Wendle

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Casey Lawrence (RHP), TOR

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Chase Silseth (RHP), LAA

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

OF Mookie Betts | DK: $5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Mark Leiter Jr. (RHP), CHC

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

2B/OF Ketel Marte | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Austin Gomberl (LHP), COL

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

2B Brendan Rodgers | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), ARI

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

*1B Daniel Vogelbach | DK: $3.5k, FD: N/A Robert Dugger (RHP), CIN

SS Jose Iglesias | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), ARI

OF Jesus Sanchez | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), NYM

1B Garrett Cooper | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), NYM

OF Yonathan Daza | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), ARI

C Carson Kelly | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

*DraftKings Main Slate Only

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

All four of Liberatore’s home runs allowed in his limited MLB action have come off of right-handed bats when pitching on the road. Of course, the Braves are the home squad today and Austin Riley has crushed left-handed pitching (.436 wOBA, .358 ISO, 27.3% HR/FB Rate). It’ll be hot and humid in Atlanta today where fly balls may travel just a bit further than most other ballparks. It just makes sense! Austin “Yung Thicc” Riley dinger incoming.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Dallas Keuchel OVER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed | -155 (DraftKings) | 2.5 Units

Keuchel (8.27 ERA) has allowed at least four ER in four consecutive starts, including six earned runs allowed five days ago to the same Rockies team he’ll be facing tonight. Granted, the game tonight will not be at Coors Field but Chase Field is a perfectly solid hitter’s park in its own right. The Rockies have also been effective against lefties outside of Coors where they have a .323 wOBA and 107 wRC+ (both rank 7th in the MLB). Colorado should be able to hang at least three runs on Keuchel before he’s retired from the mound.

Julio Rodriguez OVER 1.5 Total Bases | -110 (BetMGM) | 2.0 Units

This is the prop bet that just keeps on juicing. So much so, that I don’t even see it posted on some of the major sportsbooks. Rodriguez has cashed in on this bet in seven of his last eight games and I don’t see that stopping now. The Blue Jays are rolling out Casey Lawrence for his first start of the season. Lawrence is 34 years old and has just 91.2 innings of MLB experience under his belt. In that time, he has allowed a .290 AVG and .342 wOBA to opposing RHBs. A mediocre Blue Jays bullpen will step in for the remaining innings once Lawrence’s day is done.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!