Today's Top DFS Plays & Prop Bets from your #1 Companion for DraftKings, FanDuel, & Yahoo!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Some midweek mayhem arrives this evening in the form of an eight-game MLB main slate! Following a 12-game Tuesday slate where only two out of 24 starting pitchers scored more than 17 DKFP/32 FDFP, it would seem as if we have better overall options on the mound despite there being eight fewer teams in play. Even with some extra arm talent available today, I count at least eight offenses that I wouldn’t mind stacking up. I believe we’ll have a fun slate on our hands tonight. Let’s get itttttttttt!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Might see some delays in some spots today and with delays comes at least some risk of PPD(s). The current lean is that all eight games on this slate will play, but just keep an eye on a few forecasts closer to lock.

NYY @ PIT (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): The heaviest rain should be moving out around the first pitch but some coverage could bleed into the early innings. A “delay and play” scenario feels like a possibility here.

TEX @ BAL (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): 20-25% storm coverage in the BAL area throughout this game with the highest chances coming during the later innings. I’d expect they get this entire game played but the threat of a random pesky delay is there.

STL @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.5 O/U): Copy and paste the same ole “chance for a summertime pop-up storm in ATL.” Light delay risk. No significant PPD risk.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9,7k | vs. KC

We can’t insert Javier into DFS lineups with the expectation that he replicates what he has done in his previous two starts… but man, were those last two starts (@ NYY, vs. LAA) impressive: 14.0 IP, 27 K, 1 H, 1 ER, 0.75 xFIP, 60% kRate (lol). The only downside/risk with Javier is his high 59.3% Fly Ball Rate. Other than that, he leads all pitchers today with an elite 34.3% kRate and has maintained a sub-1.00 WHIP. He’s boasting a 1.83 ERA at home this season while opponents are hitting just .148 against him at Minute Maid Park. The positive home splits have been a trend for Javier throughout his career and he’ll draw a soft Royals opponent today. The Royals have a 91 wRC+ vs. RHPs this season, ranking them 23rd in the MLB.

Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS | DK: $5k, FD: $6k | vs. TB

I’m sure this is an exciting day for Red Sox fans as Brayan Bello, Boston’s top pitching prospect is set to make his MLB debut in Fenway Park tonight against the Rays. Injuries to the Boston rotation have been adding up, which is the primary reason for the call up, but Bello certainly appears to be worthy of the promotion. In 51.1 IP in Triple-A this season, Bello has impressed with a 2.81 ERA, 2.64 xFIP, 34.4% kRate, and 63.3% Ground Ball Rate. Bello’s walk rate has not been at a comfortable level but that’s pretty much the only criticism to take from him on paper. The Rays have been one of the more strikeout-prone offenses this season (25% kRate vs. RHPs, 4th highest) and they tend to hover around league average offensively. It’s far from the worst spot for a kid to be making his big league debut. The usual inexperience risks will be attached to Bello, but I do like his chances of pitching five, maybe six, rock-solid innings tonight while paying off his dirt cheap DFS salaries.

Also Consider:

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.5k | vs. WAS

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.4k | vs. STL

Alex Cobb (RHP), SF | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.1k | @ ARI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

It’s a pretty obvious spot for the Dodgers today. Colorado is looking to start Jose Urena who has posted a 7.29 ERA across 21.0 IP in the minor leagues this season. He hasn’t pitched more than three innings in any of his four MLB appearances this season so this is certainly shaping up for a Rockies bullpen game. That would be music to about any offense’s ears. Even outside of Coors, the Rockies have what is firmly a bottom 10 bullpen that has pitched quite a few innings in recent days. Even in tough match-ups, the Dodgers offense is going to be solid, especially at home, so any sort of letdown in this spot would be a pretty big surprise.

COL Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite LAD Bats: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman | Sneaky Bat: Gavin Lux

Texas Rangers vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

The Rangers came through as yesterday’s “low owned stack that just might work out” so they’ll get promoted to the main stack section today. Texas has been an above-league-average offense for a few weeks now and they’ll draw a friendly match-up with Spenser Watkins who has posted some ugly statcast numbers this season along with a very poor 5.53 xFIP. Both of these bullpens saw some heavy usage in their match-up yesterday so either offense has a solid chance to pop off tonight. However, the O’s have really gone deep into their pen in the last two days so there is some legitimate fatigue concern with many of their relievers. Remember to keep an eye on the weather in this game but, as long as there are no major issues, be on the lookout for another strong offensive performance out of Texas here.

BAL Bullpen Rating: 5/10

Favorite TEX Bats: Marcus Semien, Mitch Garver, Corey Seager | Sneaky Bat: Nathaniel Lowe

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

Mikolas is a classic “bend but don’t break” kinda pitcher. He’s not overly reliant on strikeouts and doesn’t blow anyone away with his velocity, but he usually finds a way to pitch through six or seven innings while coming out relatively unscathed. In 16 starts this season, he has allowed more than two earned runs just three times. With that said, given how hard Atlanta hits the ball, there are possibly two or three Braves bats that will do some solid damage against Mikolas and a respectable Cardinals bullpen in this game. A full five-man Braves stack is off the table for me but plucking out two or three ATL bats makes some sense from a contrarian standpoint.

STL Bullpen Rating: 7/10

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley | Sneaky Bat: Michael Harris II

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

OF Giancarlo Stanton | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF Mookie Betts | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

C Mitch Garver | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

1B Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Nathaniel Lowe | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

1B/3B Matt Carpenter | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

OF Michael Harris II | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

1B Darick Hall | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

OF/SS Mauricio Dubon | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Mookie Betts | DK: $4.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

Urena might pitch three or four innings, and Mookie could certainly go yard off of him in the one or two ABs he gets against him. Otherwise, the Dodgers bats are looking to mostly face Rockies relievers tonight. In the last two weeks, the Rockies bullpen has surrendered 2.04 HR/9 with an 18.8% HR/FB Rate. Last night, Mookie slugged his first home run since his return following a 15-game absence from the lineup due to a ribs injury. It was the ninth home run he has hit in 31 home games this season where he also has a .285 ISO. I’ll be looking for him to blast another one out tonight.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Cedric Mullins OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Mullins has been raking and there’s nothing worrisome about this match-up he’ll have with RHP Glenn Otto and a shaky Rangers bullpen that saw a ton of usage last night. Mullins has cashed the over on this prop in eight of his last 11 games and he’s in prime position to keep the trend rolling out of the leadoff spot for the O’s tonight in what should be an offensive-heavy match-up.

Cristian Javier to Record a Win: Yes | +110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

The thought of the Astros (-290 ML favorites) gaining and holding the lead while Javier pitches at least five innings seems incredibly likely tonight. Javier has been dealing straight heat and, while the randomness of baseball can always rear its ugly head, I’ll take the Houston strikeout specialist to go down as the winning pitcher against the Royals tonight, especially when this prop is presented at plus money odds. The Royals have also lost their last four games against the Astros when the game was played in Houston.

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🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Best of luck out there today, everyone!