Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A modest six-game slate lands on the Thursday docket! It’s a fairly “meh” slate from both a pitching perspective and a hitting/stacking perspective, but we’ll look to make the most of it nonetheless! It feels like one of those days where you may just want to eat some chalk at some spots and just look to differentiate lineups elsewhere (for GPPs), either by taking a shot on a lower-owned pitcher, targeting the back end of the order from a popular stack, or gambling on some hitters from offenses with relatively low expectations. We’ll be back on the big slate grind tomorrow, but for now, let’s try to crack the code on this little six-gamer! Best of luck!

Note: The TOR/CWS game is showing up on the DraftKings slate, but since that is the second leg of a doubleheader, players from that game will not accrue fantasy points. Make sure you don’t accidentally roster anyone from that game!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

TEX @ BOS (7:10 ET): Winds OUT to left around 10 mph.

KC @ CLE (7:10 ET): A bit of rain in the forecast here so we’ll need to keep a close eye on things closer to first pitch since the timing of those (potential) storms could cause some issues. Moderate risk of some delay (late start or in-game) and a PPD cannot be ruled out 100%.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.2k | @ HOU

Rolling with George Kirby isn’t a super safe bet against an Astros team that has been hot versus RHPs lately (142 wRC+ L2Weeks), but he offers up a chance at some leverage on this small slate given his 14% pOwn% on DraftKings and 3% pOwn% on FanDuel. Kirby enters off of a stellar start against the Rays where he pitched seven innings of two-hit, two-run ball while striking out seven and racking up 27.4 DKFP/46 FDFP. A similar performance wouldn’t be out of the question today. Kirby owns a rock-solid 3.21 ERA, 3.64 xFIP, and 1.04 WHIP this season. His 21.4% kRate is fairly average but he has shown double-digit K upside and he also leads all qualified MLB starters with a minuscule 2.2% Walk Rate.

The Astros continue to play without power LHB Yordan Alvarez; meanwhile, a hot-hitting Jose Altuve (oblique) is not expected to be available and may be sidelined until after the All-Star break. George Kirby has posted very strong traditional splits this season, holding RHBs to a 1.84 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 0.67 HR/9, .234 AVG, .255 wOBA, .093 ISO, and 24.8% kRate. This is notable because the Astros simply do not have many LHBs to roll out and we may see as many as eight RHBs in their lineup today. It would not be a major surprise if Kirby ends the night as the highest-scoring pitcher on this slate.

Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.2k | vs. KC

Note: Remember to keep an eye on the Cleveland forecast since there is a chance of a mid-game delay which could cut a starting pitcher’s outing short.

Bibee sets up as the “chalk du jour” at pitcher today with a 43% pOwn% on DK and 44% pOwn% on FD. He owns the highest consensus projection on the slate, and it’s easy to see why. He’s taken advantage of some plus match-ups in his last two outings (vs. MIL, @ CHC), combining for 11.2 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, and his 16 Ks in those two games represent a huge 34.0% kRate.

Bibee draws the exceptionally favorable Royals match-up today. Kansas City ranks dead last in the MLB with a 65 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last two weeks. They also do not match up well against Bibee’s primary pitch mix of 4-seamer (49.5%), slider (27.1%), and changeup (16.4%). Versus that pitch mix (from RHPs), the Royals rank 29th with a .218 AVG, last with a .283 wOBA, and their 27.0% kRate is the 2nd highest in MLB. This stagnant Royals offense allowed Twins RHP Pablo Lopez to throw a CGSO against them yesterday and, while Bibee is not the same caliber of pitcher as Lopez, he’s fully capable of delivering six very strong innings today. The Guardians are also the heaviest favorites on the slate with -225 ML odds.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX | DK: $10k, FD: $9.9k | @ BOS

Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.5k | @ NYY

Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.3k | vs. SEA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

+ D-Backs: 5.4 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).

+ Carrasco has had many more bad outings than good this season, which has led to a 5.94 ERA, 5.20 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, 21.4% HR/FB Rate, and a slate-worst 46.2% HardHit%.

+ Carrasco has had some awful reverse splits vs. RHBs: 7.76 ERA, .299 AVG, .407 wOBA, .308 ISO, 2.79 HR/9.

+ D-Backs have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs over the last month: .272 AVG (4th), .803 OPS (5th), .346 wOBA (5th), .190 ISO (5th), 115 wRC+ (8th), and 36.2% HardContact% (7th).

+ Mets have had a bottom-10 bullpen this season and their 5.45 xFIP over the last two weeks is the 2nd worst in MLB.

- Carrasco has performed marginally better on the road and the Mets bullpen will be well-rested after Kodai Senga delivered with 8.0 IP last night.

Favorite ARI Bats: Christian Walker, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte

Bargain Bat: Evan Longoria

Cleveland Guardians (LHBs Preferred) vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

+ Guardians: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 3rd on the slate).

+ Jordan Lyles has been one of the lowest-quality starters in the MLB this season: 6.68 ERA, 5.47 xFIP, 16.3% kRate, 49.8% Fly Ball Rate.

+ The Guardians have a ton of lefty hitters they can roll out today -- Lyles vs. LHBs: 7.63 ERA, .358 wOBA, .263 ISO, 2.27 HR/9.

+ Guardians have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs over the last month: .299 AVG (2nd), .790 OPS (6th), .342 wOBA (6th), and 119 wRC+ (5th).

+ Royals bullpen this season: 5.07 ERA (2nd worst) and 1.49 WHIP (4th worst).

- The Guardians' offensive upside is somewhat limited since they rely on contact hitting over power -- they rank last in the MLB with only 56 HRs, a .123 ISO, and a 25.2% HardContact%.

- Progressive Field has ranked as the #1 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season and the Guardians are averaging just 3.50 runs/gm at home.

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez

Bargain Bat: Will Brennan

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Julio Urias (LHP), LAD

+ Every Pirates hitter has a <5% pOwn%.

+ Julio Urias was on the IL for about a month-and-a-half with a hamstring injury -- he returned to action on July 1st where he gave up 5 ER on six hits to a bad Royals offense across just three innings (66 pitches).

+ In 11 starts this season, Urias has produced fairly mediocre results: 4.94 ERA, 4.23 xFIP, .340 opp wOBA, and 18.7% HR/FB Rate.

+ While they haven’t been great, the Pirates offense has been serviceable (aka slightly above average) vs. LHPs over the last month, ranking 11th in AVG, 13th in OPS, 13th in wOBA, 14th in ISO, 14th in wRC+, and 10th in HardContact%.

+ Urias will probably still face some light pitch restrictions and the Dodgers bullpen has been heavily taxed -- LAD hasn’t had an off day since June 26th and their bullpen has pitched 13.2 innings over the last three days (2nd most in MLB).

+ Pirates bats are extremely affordable.

- Urias has been much, much better at home where he has posted a 1.99 ERA, 2.91 xFIP, and 0.73 WHIP (vs. 8.44 ERA, 5.79 xFIP, and 1.84 WHIP on the road).

- Pirates: 3.7 implied runs (ranks last on the slate).

Favorite PIT Bats: Henry Davis, Carlos Santana, Andrew McCutchen

Bargain Bat: Connor Joe/Nick Gonzales

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Andres Gimenez, CLE | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

OF Harrison Bader, NYY | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

1B Ryan O’Hearn, BAL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

C Francisco Alvarez, NYM | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

3B Evan Longoria, ARI | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

OF Leody Taveras, TEX | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

SS Anthony Volpe, NYY | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

1B Carlos Santana, PIT | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Julio Urias (LHP), LAD

OF Henry Davis, PIT | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Julio Urias (LHP), LAD

OF Will Brennan, CLE | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

1B Mike Ford, SEA | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

OF Colton Cowser, BAL | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Tanner Bibee LESS than 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed

Julio Urias LESS than 16.5 Pitching Outs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!