Today's Top DFS Plays & Prop Bets from your #1 Companion for DraftKings, FanDuel, & Yahoo!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

I hope everyone enjoyed the long July 4th weekend but now it’s time to get back right back on that MLB DFS grind! A juicy 12-game main slate is on tap today and it’s looking like a very offensive-heavy slate. When Nick Pivetta is the most expensive pitcher on the board on a slate this big, you know that it’s not exactly a talent-rich slate at the SP position. So it should be a fun day with all the stack possibilities but nailing the pitcher position will pose a greater challenge. Let’s see what we can cook up today!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

We’ll have several spots to keep an eye on this evening. Currently, the two riskiest weather games look to be TB @ BOS and MIN @ CWS, but pretty much all of the games highlighted below are worth checking up on closer to lock.

NYY @ PIT (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): Sparse t-storms in the area. One may make its way over the ballpark and cause a delay.

TEX @ BAL (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Things could be cleared up by first pitch but some scattered showers could linger around the area during the game. Delay is possible, but PPD seems unlikely.

WAS @ PHI (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Similar outlook as BAL. Scattered showers lead to some delay risk but no significant PPD risk. Winds blowing OUT to center at 10 mph.

TB @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): It’s looking like a wet but playable game here. The worst of the rain should hold off until after the game is finished. There is some risk since they will probably have to play a bit wet, but I won’t be avoiding TB/BAL players for now. Winds blowing OUT to left at 10+ mph.

STL @ ATL (7:20 ET, 9.5 O/U): The usual “chance for a summertime pop up storm” in Atlanta. Nothing too crazy and they likely avoid trouble altogether.

MIN @ CWS (8:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): The forecast has improved here since this morning but there is some decent rain coverage expected in the Chicago area this evening which will put some notable PPD risk on the table for this game. If no PPD, some sort of delay seems very possible.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10k | vs. KC

I’m really not loving the SP options today but Garcia does stand out given his solid K potential (25.2% kRate) and a fairly soft match-up. The Royals have just a .295 wOBA vs. RHPs this season, ranking them 25th in the MLB. Garcia has seen his kRate rise to 28.2% when pitching at home this season and the Astros (-250) check in as the heaviest favorites on today’s slate.

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.9k | @ OAK

I hate playing the Kikuchi guessing game but that’s where we’re at today. There haven’t been many “in-between” performances from Kikuchi this season -- he either comes out and pitches well while providing some decent strikeout numbers, or he gets beat up early and doesn’t make it past the fourth inning. He does receive the soft Oakland match-up, though they haven’t been a complete disaster on offense as of late. Kikuchi’s 26.3% kRate is the second-highest among today’s starters so he should be given some amount of consideration out of the mid-range.

Also Consider:

Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY | DK: $10k, FD: $9.4k | @ PIT

Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.2k | @ DET

*Josh Winder (RHP), MIN | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.6k | @ CWS

**Christopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.7k | vs. WAS

*Weather concerns.

**DraftKings GPP SP2 Preferred

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Adrian Martinez (RHP), OAK

Martinez had a nice MLB debut back on May 10th when he threw 5.1 scoreless innings (against Detroit). However, his second big league outing, which came last Thursday, did not go so well as he allowed seven runs on seven hits (two HRs) to the Mariners in only 4.2 innings. He enters tonight with a 5.79 xFIP through his two MLB starts and he was struggling a fair amount in the minor leagues this season as well. The Toronto Blue Jays are one of the top power offenses in the league and they should be licking their chops in this match-up against a shaky rookie and a bad bullpen.

OAK Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Alejandro Kirk | Sneaky Bat: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Houston Astros vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

Greinke is far from a good MLB starting pitcher these days but, more often than not, he’s going to go out on the mound and post a very “bend but not break” performance. But Greinke will be on the road (6.90 ERA in away games this season) pitching against his former Astros teammates. It’s certainly a tough spot for Greinke considering the Astros have led the MLB with a .238 ISO and 139 wRC+ over the last two weeks. But the faster they can get Greinke off the mound, the better because as most are aware, that Royals bullpen can be pretty tragic at times.

KC Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve | Sneaky Bat: Jake Meyers

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Austin Voth (RHP), BAL

It’s a 12-game slate so most teams are going to be low-owned. With that said, Texas is an interesting stack option today. They have popped off in some recent games and they’ve been a top 10 offense over the last two weeks (119 wRC+, ranks 7th). Austin Voth has posted an ugly 7.34 ERA this season next to a slate-worst 1.89 WHIP. Unfortunately, the O’s have some talent in their bullpen but if the Rangers can hang up some runs up on Voth early, they may choose to not use their top relievers in this game.

BAL Bullpen Rating: 7/10

Favorite TEX Bats: Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia | Sneaky Bat: Josh H. Smith

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Spencer Howard (RHP), TEX

OF Giancarlo Stanton | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jose Quintana (RHP), PIT

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Adrian Martinez (RHP), OAK

2B Marcus Semien | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Austin Voth (RHP), BAL

1B Rhys Hoskins | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Juan Yepez | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

2B Kolten Wong | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Rafael Ortega | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jason Alexander (RHP), MIL

1B Darick Hall | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS

OF Riley Greene | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

Greinke doesn’t give up a ton of fly balls or home runs, but he is more likely to give up a four-bagger to LHBs (1.32 HR/9 Rate) and Yordan is one of the most dangerous lefties in the game. Alvarez is coming off of a monstrous month of June where he hit .418 with a .553 wOBA, .418 ISO, 277 wRC+ and launched nine home runs. Given Greinke’s struggles on the road this season, I like the match-up for the Astros bats today and Alvarez’s chances to blast his 25th home run of the season are pretty solid tonight.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Rhys Hoskins OVER 0.5 RBI | +110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Vlad Guerrero Jr. OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +105 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Best of luck out there today, everyone!