Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I hope everyone had a great 4th of July and here’s to hoping you came away with the same amount of fingers that you began the week with! We’ll see if we can keep the fireworks poppin’ on today’s hefty 11-game slate. Pitching looks to be the weakness on this slate, but with 11 games and 22 starters taking the mound, some of these guys will inevitably pitch a great game. Let’s lock and load! Best of luck!

Also, here’s a happy birthday shout-out to the man @bulletproof!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

CIN @ WAS (7:05 ET): A bit of rain around so some sort of delay isn’t impossible.

BAL @ NYY (7:05 ET): Same deal as BAL. Low-end chance of a delay.

ATL @ CLE (7:10 ET): And once again, there's a low-end chance of a delay here with some scattered storms around the area. Not a major concern.

KC @ MIN (7:40 ET): 10 mph winds OUT to center.

TOR @ CWS (8:10 ET): Might see some afternoon rain linger around at the scheduled first pitch. We’ll look out for a late start here.

SEA @ SF (9:05 ET): Cool temps in the mid-50s. Winds OUT to left at 10-15 mph but, as always, Oracle Park is designed to mitigate wind impacts.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.8k | vs. KC

While the slate may not be loaded with a slew of aces and high-upside pitchers, Pablo Lopez is going to certainly command some consideration. He leads all pitchers on the slate with a 29.8% kRate, 14.6 SwStr%, and 3.43 SIERA. Lopez’s kRate has jumped to 31.1% across his last five starts and he has covered at least six full innings in four of those outings.

Lopez will draw one of the best match-ups a pitcher could ask for. The Royals have an MLB-worst 78 wRC+ vs. RHPs this season and, over the last two weeks against righties, they rank 25th in AVG, 28th in OPS, 28th in wOBA, and 28th in wRC+ while striking out 25.9% of the time (6th highest). The Royals also do not match up well against Lopez’s primary pitch mix of 4-seamers, changeups, sweepers, and curveballs. Against those pitchers (from RHPs), the Royals have a .303 xwOBA (ranks 27th) and a hefty 27.4% kRate (3rd highest). The Twins lead the slate with -280 ML odds today and the Royals are being pinned with a slate-low 3.3 implied run total. He’ll be chalky, but Lopez brings a strong floor + upside combination to lineups today.

Seth Lugo (RHP), SD | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.6k | vs. LAA

It hasn’t been a consistent season on the mound for Seth Lugo but he has put up fantasy scores of at least 15.9 DKFP/27 FDFP in 7-of-11 starts and his 3.69 xFIP ranks 3rd among the slate’s starting pitchers. Lugo also doesn’t give out many free passes based on his slate-low 5.0% BB%.

What really makes Lugo an intriguing DFS play out of the mid-range is his match-up with the banged-up Angels lineup. Mike Trout and Brandon Drury were recently placed on the IL, joining injured players like Gio Urshela and Zach Neto. Meanwhile, Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon also may not be available to play tonight -- both are listed as day-to-day. That’s a lot of firepower missing from this lineup, especially if Ohtani is unable to suit up. Furthermore, the Angels have a 26.8% kRate (5th highest) against Seth Lugo’s two primary pitches (curveballs and 4-seamers). The Padres are heavy -188 ML favorites tonight and the Angels are one of just a handful of teams with a sub-4.0 implied run total.

Alec Marsh (RHP), KC | DK: $5k, FD: $5.8k | @ MIN

As usual, pitchers in this range are best suited as DraftKings SP2 plays. Marsh had a rough MLB debut against the Dodgers, surrendering five runs on six hits (two HRs) and four walks across four innings. However, he did show some nice strikeout upside with five Ks, equaling 22.7% kRate. Marsh posted a stout 28.8% kRate in 15.0 IP in Triple-A this season and a 26.4% kRate in 47.1 IP in Double-A. We can expect Marsh to give up some hits and maybe a few runs, but the hope would be that he can still pay off his $5,000 DK price tag with a solid number of strikeouts. He’ll land in a favorable spot to do that tonight. The Twins have an MLB-high 27.8% kRate vs. RHPs over the last month and six players in their confirmed lineup have at least a 26.5% kRate vs. RHPs this season. The risk is obvious but Marsh did throw 95 pitches in his debut, so he has the length to pitch through five or six innings, and the Twins represent a decidedly easier match-up than the Dodgers.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Justin Steele (LHP), CHC | DK: $10.3k, FD: $9.7k | @ MIL

Alex Cobb (RHP), SF | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.1k | vs. SEA

Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.9k | vs. PIT

Tommy Milone (LHP), SEA | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | @ SF (DraftKings GPP SP2 Preferred)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

San Diego Padres vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

+ Sandoval is battling some very poor form -- last seven starts: 6.25 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, .335 opp AVG, .374 opp wOBA, 66.9% LOB%.

+ Padres have been a top-10 offense vs. LHPs L30Days: .788 OPS (6th), .342 wOBA (5th), .187 ISO (8th), and 118 wRC+ (7th).

+ Padres have the 4th most HRs (35), 7th most runs scored (116), and 7th most stolen bases (21) against LHPs this season.

+ Based on their 4.51 xFIP, the Angels have had the 7th worst bullpen this season -- over the last two weeks, the Angels bullpen owns a 5.75 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.

-/+ Padres: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-12th on the slate).

- Petco Park is the #3 least hitter-friendly park and the Padres are averaging only 4.07 runs/gm at home this season.

Favorite SD Bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim, Manny Machado

Bargain Bat: Brandon Dixon

Atlanta Braves vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

+ Braves: 5.4 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Quantrill has not been great this season and he’s been a disaster over this last five starts: 10.03 ERA, 5.95 xFIP, 1.80 WHIP, .333 opp AVG, .400 opp wOBA, and a low 12.3% kRate.

+ It’s getting a bit redundant always recommending the Braves, but they have been by far the best offense versus RHPs over the last month, ranking 1st in the following metrics: .305 AVG, .954 OPS, .403 wOBA, .280 ISO, and 152 wRC+ with 57 HRs.

+ Braves are averaging an MLB-leading 5.55 runs/gm on the road.

-/+ Based on their 4.25 xFIP, the Guardians bullpen has ranked mid-pack this season, however, they did burn many of their top relievers in yesterday’s game.

- Braves bats continue to be a very expensive stack and will likely carry moderately high ownership.

- Progressive Field has ranked as the #1 least hitter-friendly park this season.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Michael Harris II

Bargain Bat: Marcell Ozuna

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

+ Every D-Backs hitter has a 6% pOwn% or lower.

+ D-Backs: 5.0 implied runs (ranks T-5th on the slate).

+ Senga has been noticeably worse in road games where he owns a 4.58 ERA, 4.36 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP, and .330 opp wOBA.

+ D-Backs have been a top-10 offense at home vs. RHPs: .270 AVG (5th), .794 OPS (7th), .342 wOBA (8th), .190 ISO (8th), and 111 wRC+ (9th).

+ The Mets have had a bottom 10 bullpen this season and their 5.50 xFIP L2Weeks is the 2nd worst in MLB -- they also used their best relievers yesterday (D. Robertson, B. Raley, A. Ottavino) so those guys may be unavailable to pitch today.

- Senga is allowing a low 3.7% Barrel% this season and still has all the tools to work through 6+ strong innings.

Favorite ARI Bats: Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte

Bargain Bat: Evan Longoria

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

OF/SS Mookie Betts. LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Osvaldo Bido (RHP), PIT

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

2B/SS Mat McLain, CIN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

OF Lane Thomas, WAS | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Amed Rosario, CLE | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), ATL

3B Jeimer Candelario, WAS | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

C Patrick Bailey, SF | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tommy Milone (LHP), SEA

OF Tommy Pham, NYM | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

1B/OF Brandon Belt, TOR | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Lancy Lynn (RHP), CWS

2B/SS Nick Gonzales, PIT | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2k | vs. Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

1B Jarred Young, CHC | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

1B Donovan Solano, MIN | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

1B Wilmer Flores, SF | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tommy Milone (LHP), SEA

OF Jake Bauers, NYY | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

OF Isiah Kiner-Falefa, NYY | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

OF Colton Cowser, BAL | DK: $2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), NYY

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Ronald Acuña Jr + Jarren Duran MORE than 0.5 Stolen Bases (Combo)

Ha-Seong Kim MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!