Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Welcome back to another week of MLB madness! We’re just over 24 hours away from tomorrow’s 6 pm ET trade deadline, and we’ve already seen several massive moves over the last few days. Be sure to keep an eye out for additional transactions over the next day or so! Monday will set up with a solid nine-game main slate. At first glance, this slate may slightly fall in favor of pitching but we’ve got plenty of intriguing stack options to turn to as well.

Track the latest trades here.

Quick note: I’m writing from the road today while heading toward Atlanta to attend this upcoming Braves vs. Angels series. So today’s newsletter will be fairly abbreviated, and I won’t be available to get any MLB newsletters written up for tomorrow or Wednesday. Tyler may be able to get a little something put together to go along with the YouTube content but, for now, that is TBD. Anyhow, let’s get into Monday’s action! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

TB @ NYY (7:05 ET): Winds near 10 mph blowing a bit OUT to right, a bit left to right.

LAA @ ATL (7:20 ET): Warm with winds blowing OUT to center at 10+ mph. Bump to bats.

CIN @ CHC (8:05 ET): Light winds blowing IN from right.

SD @ COL (8:40 ET): Coors Field will be the primary weather concern today. Storms are likely throughout the evening so a delay is a major possibility and a PPD cannot be ruled out. We’ll keep this game in play for now but, since it will have a scheduled first pitch nearly two hours after the first games on the slate, be sure to have a contingency plan in place to late swap to players in the two later games!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), TB | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.6k | @ NYY

We have some high-level arms to choose from on this slate but we’ll begin with Tyler Glasnow who has looked to be in top form over the last month-plus. Spanning his previous six starts (36.1 IP), Glasnow has boasted a 2.23 ERA, 1.94 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, .200 opp AVG, and a huge 38.2% kRate. He has also been given an atypically long leash, by Rays' standards, and has thrown at least 93 pitches in four of his last five outings.

Now that the Yankees have gotten healthier, primarily by getting Aaron Judge back in the lineup, they’re a much more dangerous offense overall. That said, the Yankees do find themselves in the bottom 10 of most key offensive metrics against RHPs over the last month and, when he’s on, Glasnow is borderline match-up proof. The Rays will be moderate road favorites with -145 ML odds and the Yankees are being pinned with a 3.9 implied run total, fourth-lowest on the slate.

Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8k | @ SEA

Nick Pivetta value chalk… what could go wrong? Pivetta currently holds a 32% pOwn% on DraftKings and his performances over the last month make him a seriously appealing SP2 target. Over his last six appearances spanning 24.1 IP, Pivetta has posted some elite results: 1.85 ERA, 2.11 xFIP, 0.74 WHIP, .122 opp AVG, and an eye-popping 44.4% kRate! One interesting wrinkle here is that Pivetta posted those results while working exclusively out of the bullpen in long relief. Pivetta is now slotted in as tonight’s starter, so we’ll see if that has any effect on his current momentum.

The Mariners have found an offensive groove against RHPs over the last month, sporting a .339 wOBA and 121 wRC+, both top-10 figures. However, they’ve also struck out 27.3% of the time in that same span (4th highest). Seattle does not match up well against Pivetta’s primary pitch mix of 4-seamers (51%), curveballs (26.9%), and sliders (18.7%). Against those three pitches (from RHPs), the Mariners are hitting just .223 (4th lowest) with a huge 28.2% kRate (2nd highest). T-Mobile Park has also been the #3 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season and this game owns a slate-low 7.5-run over/under. So, there are plenty of factors working in favor of Pivetta tonight, and his low DFS price tags, particularly on DraftKings, will make him a prime value target.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.4k | @ WAS

Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN | DK: $10k, FD: $10.8k | @ CHC

Seth Lugo (RHP), SD | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.6k | @ COL (Weather Concerns)

Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7k | @ SF

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

(Keep an eye on the weather)

San Diego Padres vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), SD

Non-Coors Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

+ Braves: 5.3 implied runs (ranks 1st among non-Coors teams).

+ Canning has allowed 2.09 HR/9 in road games this season and hasn’t been as prolific in the strikeout department (22.0% kRate away, 29.9% kRate home).

+ Canning L30 Days: 93.6 mph average exit velocity (bottom 5th percentile).

+ Braves bats have been heating back up in a big way -- vs. RHPs over the last week: .354 AVG, 1.051 OPS, .443 wOBA, .285 ISO, 179 wRC+, 47.3% HardContact%.

+ Great hitting conditions at Truist Park (#4 hitter’s park in 2023, #3 HR park) with warm temps and 10+ mph winds blowing out to center -- Braves are averaging 6.00 runs/gm at home.

+ Angels bullpen has been getting shelled over the last 30 days: 6.03 ERA, 5.07 xFIP, 1.71 WHIP, and 1.97 HR/9.

- Core Braves bats are very pricey.

- I’ll be at this game so I may be mushing the Braves offense by hyping them up here.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley

Bargain Bat: Marcell Ozuna

Houston Astros vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), CLE

+ Astros: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ This will be Syndergaard’s Cleveland debut and also his first taste of MLB action since early June after dealing with a blister on his pitching hand -- he had an awful tenure with the Dodgers this season, posting a 7.16 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and .380 opp wOBA in 12 starts.

+ The Astros lineup recently received a huge boost by getting Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve back in the mix.

+ Against RHPs over the last week, the Astros rank 6th or better in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+.

-/+ Guardians have had an average bullpen this season.

- The Astros' offense has been less effective at home (4.47 runs/gm) compared to on the road (5.08 runs/gm).

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman

Bargain Bat: Jose Abreu

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cincinnati Reds vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC

+ Every Reds hitter has a ≤5% pOwn%.

+ Stroman has been in some very poor form over his last six starts: 8.00 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, .308 opp AVG, and .368 opp wOBA.

+ Reds have posted above-average results when facing RHPs on the road this season (101 wRC+ ranks 12th).

+ Reds are averaging 4.83 runs/gm on the road (11th most).

-/+ Cubs have had a fairly average bullpen this season.

- Stroman averages +41.1% more FPPG at home and he has been the victim of some bad luck as of late -- while his ERA is at 8.00 over those last six starts, he’s had a much better 4.22 xFIP in that span.

- Light winds blowing in from right at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field.

Favorite CIN Bats: Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Jake Fraley

Bargain Bat: Will Benson

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Tyler Glasnow (RHP), TB

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), CLE

3B/SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC

3B Manny Machado, SD | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

2B/OF Whit Merrifield, TOR | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), BAL

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Domingo German (RHP), NYY

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Sal Frelick, MIL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

C Gary Sanchez, SD | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

1B Triston Casas, BOS | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

SS JP Crawford, SEA | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

1B Wilmer Flores, SF | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

2B/3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

2B Adam Frazier, BAL | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

C Luis Campasano, SD | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

1B Ryan O’Hearn, BAL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Dominic Canzone, ARI | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. TBA, SF

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Austin Riley MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

Ronald Acuña Jr. + Shohei Ohtani MORE than 4.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (Combo)

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!