Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’re officially one week away from the All-Star Break, so make sure you get your MLB fix in ahead of the brief hiatus! Monday will set us up with a modest six-game slate to get the week rolling. It’s a slate that certainly favors starting pitching, with only two teams currently possessing a >4.5 implied run total (still waiting on the PIT/LAD line). It may be one of those days where we hope for some offensive stacks to break through late against weaker bullpens. Time will tell, but for now, let’s see if we can land on the right pieces to the puzzle. Best of luck!

Note: There will be no newsletter tomorrow. I hope everyone has a safe and happy 4th of July!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

BAL @ NYY (7:05 ET): Possibility of some late-inning rain.

KC @ MIN (8:05 ET): A few scattered storms in the area so the chance for a delay is there, but seems more likely that they’ll play without issue. Mid-90s temps at first pitch, humid, and 5-10 mph winds blowing OUT to left. Bats get a solid bump.

SEA @ SF (9:45 ET): Now that we’re well into the summer months, any time temps are going to be down in the mid-50s like they should be in San Fran tonight, it’s worth making note of. Quality pitching conditions at Oracle Park, so it’s no surprise this game features a slate-low 7.0 over/under.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Blake Snell (LHP), SD | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.9k | vs. LAA

I’m not sure you can find a pitcher around the league that has been on more of a heater than Blake Snell. Going back through his last six starts (37.0 IP), Snell has come away with a 0.73 ERA, 1.83 xFIP, 0.73 WHIP, .185 opp wOBA, and 44.1% kRate while stranding 99.2% of baserunners and averaging 32 DKFP/54 FDFP! Snell has also exploded with 10+ Ks in four consecutive starts. He’ll also be back at home at Petco Park (#2 most pitcher-friendly park) where, historically, he has been more reliable. Over the last month, Snell also ranks in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity (84.2 mph) so opposing hitters have been struggling to hit rockets off of him.

Every baseball fan knows the one guy in the Angels lineup that can single-handedly destroy an opposing pitcher. The good news is that the Angels lineup has not been hitting lefty pitchers very well. Against LHPs over the last month, the Angels are hitting .219 (ranks 24th), and they’ve put up a below-average .709 OPS, .309 wOBA, and 96 wRC+. If Snell can pitch around Ohtani, his recent form suggests he should be able to handle the rest of the lineup with relative ease. Also, Snell’s $8,600 DraftKings price tag is a bit of a head-scratcher.

Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.5k | @ NYY

Wells is another guy who has been excellent over the last month-plus. Spanning his previous six starts (35.2 IP), Wells has procured a 2.78 ERA, 3.94 xFIP, 0.95 WHIP, .273 opp wOBA, and 29.3% kRate. His .235 BABIP in that stretch has been a bit fortunate, hence the higher xFIP, but we’ll look for regression to stay hidden for at least another start. Wells has looked sharp against some quality offensive competition as of late as well, holding the Reds, Rays, and Blue Jays to two earned runs apiece in his last three starts.

The Yankees have now played a full month without the services of Aaron Judge (toe/IL). In that span versus RHPs, the Yankees have just a .202 AVG (last), .624 OPS (29th), .275 wOBA (last), and 73 wRC+ (29th). New York still has some solid home run power in the lineup, and Wells has allowed nine barreled balls in the last 30 days (bottom 10th percentile). But if Wells can keep the ball inside the field of play, he should go on to pitch 6+ innings of quality baseball.

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $6.6k, FD: $9.2k | @ SF

After stumbling in his MLB debut against the Rangers, Bryan Woo has gone on to pitch some excellent baseball. Over his last four starts, he has come away with an excellent 2.18 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, .255 opp wOBA, and 34.1% kRate while stranding 88.6% of baserunners. Woo notched at least seven strikeouts in three of those recent four starts and will play in a quality pitching environment tonight at Oracle Park where temps will be in the mid-50s.

The Giants lineup may not be filled with many big names, but they’ve been a fairly dangerous lineup this season, nonetheless. However, looking through the San Fran lineup, we’ll see several guys who are banged up. Thairo Estrada, LaMonte Wade Jr., Michael Conforto, and Brandon Crawford are all listed as day-to-day with various injuries, while Mitch Haniger and Mike Yastrzemski are both still on the IL. On top of the injuries, the Giants have stumbled against RHPs in the last two weeks, posting a lackluster .297 wOBA and 86 wRC+ while striking out 23.1% of the time. We should also take into account the fact that the Giants played on Sunday Night Baseball in New York last night and had to travel all the way back to the West Coast for today’s series opener against the Mariners. While Bryan Woo is not exactly cheap on FanDuel, he remains a solid play there and is a highly enticing SP2 option on DraftKings at only $6,600.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $10k, FD: $9.9k | vs. KC

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.1k |vs. SEA

Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.7k | @ CLE

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement, but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

+ Braves: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

+ Gavin Williams is a talented young pitcher (#12 overall prospect - MLB.com), but he’s faced two of the worst MLB offenses thus far (A’s & Royals), and the Braves are shelling just about everyone right now -- they recently knocked around another skilled rookie, Eury Perez, two days ago for 7 H and 6 ER in 0.1 IP.

+ In Williams’ two MLB starts, he has ranked bottom 15th percentile in average distance (196.2 ft).

+ Against Williams’ primary pitch mix (4-seamer, slider, curveball), the Braves have a .357 wOBA (2nd), .362 xwOBA (1st), and .225 ISO (2nd).

+ Braves vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .297 AVG, .981 OPS, .410 wOBA, .328 ISO (!), 157 wRC+, and 18.8% kRate.

+ Braves are averaging 5.61 runs/gm on the road (ranks 1st in MLB).

+ The Guardians have had a below-average bullpen this season.

- Progressive Field has been the #3 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

- Braves bats are pricey throughout the lineup.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Michael Harris II

Bargain Bat: Eddie Rosario

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

+ Grove has been a poor quality starter -- in 37.0 IP, he owns a 7.54 ERA, 4.48 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, .307 opp AVG, and 1.95 HR/9 Rate.

+ Grove L30Days: 197.1 feet average distance (bottom 15th percentile) & seven barreled balls (bottom 20th percentile).

+ The Pirates have busted their hitting slump and over the last week, they’ve posted a .354 wOBA and 122 wRC+.

+ There are plenty of affordable bats in the PIT lineup, making them a prime target if you’re spending up on pitching and/or another pricey stack (like ATL).

+ The Dodgers bullpen has not been sharp this season -- their 4.52 ERA is the 6th worst in MLB.

+ The Dodgers have allowed the most stolen bases this season.

- Over the last month, the Pirates are hitting just .228 with a .292 wOBA and 80 wRC+.

Favorite PIT Bats: Jack Suwinski, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana

Bargain Bat: Nick Gonzales

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Domingo German (RHP), NYY

+ Orioles: 4.5 implied runs (ranks T-4th on the slate).

+ 8-of-9 BAL hitters have a 12% pOwn% or lower.

+ Attacking a pitcher who just threw a perfect game seems a bit counter-intuitive, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that German allowed 15 ER on 15 hits (5 HR) in the two starts before the perfect game.

+ German: 7 barreled balls allowed in the L30Days (bottom 20th percentile).

+ German has allowed a high 40.7% HardHit% and 16.7% HR/FB Rate this season.

+ German relies heavily on the curveball (41.7% of his thrown pitches) -- against the RHP curveball, the Orioles have an MLB-low 19.9% kRate and ranks 4th with a .200 ISO.

-/+ The Orioles have been very average versus RHPs L30Days: .251 AVG (15th), .732 OPS (13th), .316 wOBA (16th), and 101 wRC+ (15th).

- Yankees have had a top-10 bullpen this season.

Favorite BAL Bats: Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn

Bargain Bat: Ramon Urias

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Blake Snell (LHP), SD

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

OF/SS Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

OF Juan Soto, SD | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jaime Barria (RHP), LAA

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Austin Cox (LHP), KC

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

OF Joc Pederson, SF | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Domingo German (RHP), NYY

OF Andrew McCutchen, PIT | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Josh Naylor, CLE | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

OF Jack Suwinski, PIT | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

1B/3B Ramon Urias, BAL | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Domingo German (RHP), NYY

1B Carlos Santana, PIT | DK: $2.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

OF Trent Grisham, SD | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jaime Barria (RHP), LAA

1B Donovan Solano, MIN | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Alex Cox (LHP), KC

OF Willi Castro, MIN | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Alex Cox (LHP), KC

OF Drew Waters, KC | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

OF Isiah Kiner-Falefa, NYY | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

2B/SS Nick Gonzales, PIT | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Tyler Wells MORE than 17.0 Pitching Outs

Blake Snell MORE than 7.5 Pitcher Strikeouts

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!