Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 7/29 | Shaking Up Friday's Mammoth Slate

July 29, 2022

One final big Friday slate rolls around before next Tuesday's trade deadline shakes up the MLB landscape!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Happy Friday, folks! It’s an excitingly anxious time of the season as this upcoming Tuesday’s 6 pm ET trade deadline looms. Some lower-impact trades have already trickled through in recent days, but the wait to see where potential superstar trade targets like Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani end up continues to be the major storyline at this point in the season. It’s gonna be an interesting next few days, no doubt!

For now, we set our focus on today’s big boy 13-game main slate. Several aces are on the mound, and Coors Field is once again in play, but we’ll have plenty of other enticing pitchers and team stacks to pivot to as well. Let’s have some fun as we accelerate into the weekend!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Nothing too worrisome today. Not expecting any postponements but the two spots with the highest delay risk are STL @ WAS and ARI @ ATL. Double-check those two forecasts closer to first pitch. 

STL @ WAS (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): Scattered rainstorms in the area throughout this game. A late start/delay seems like a decent possibility but not expecting a washout. This is the Washington Nationals though, and they’ve been known to make some questionable weather-related game decisions in the past.

KC @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Low coverage storms around but the worst of them should hold off until after the game.

ARI @ ATL (7:20 ET, 9 O/U): Typical Atlanta summertime forecast with one or two batches of scattered t-storms around the area this evening. Moderate delay risk.

LAD @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.5 O/U): Storms should be cleared by first pitch but there is a low-end possibility of a late start if they hang around a little too long.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11k | vs. KC

If you’re looking to spend all the way up, it is a bit of a tough decision between Cole and Justin Verlander ($10.5k/$11.1k) who is up against the Mariners for a second consecutive start. Cole seems to have the edge due to drawing the weaker opponent. The Royals have not scored a run in their last 27 innings of baseball. In that three-game stretch, they’re batting a meager .165 with a .206 wOBA, .041 ISO, 29 wRC+, and a 30.2% kRate. A three-game stretch is of course a super small sample size in the scope of a 162-game season, but do we really expect them to turn things around against Gerrit Cole? It seems unlikely, especially if their young star Bobby Witt Jr. (hamstring) remains out of the lineup for the fifth consecutive game. Cole leads all pitchers today with a 32.3% kRate and 2.78 xFIP and he’s been particularly sharp at home where those numbers improve to a 35.5% kRate and 2.23 xFIP. It’s perhaps the chalkiest play of the day but Cole is some tough chalk to fade.

Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.2k | vs. DET

His upside could be debated but Manoah has rarely disappointed this season, particularly when’s he on his home mound where he boasts a 2.10 ERA across nine starts this season. His only home performance where he didn’t score at least 19.6 DKFP/37 FDFP came against the elite Yankees offense back on June 18th. Now he’s facing Detroit, the team that has posted the worst overall offensive numbers against RHPs this season: .213 AVG, .261 wOBA, .101 ISO, 67 wRC+, 24.2% kRate. Manoah is not cheap but he’s also not going to eat up as much salary as Verlander or Cole, despite having a similar floor.

Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.5k | vs. OAK

Has Lance Lynn disappointed this year? Absolutely. But this is also the guy who finished third in AL Cy Young voting just last season. Lynn missed a large chunk of the start of the season so perhaps there is some rust that has needed to be shaken off. He is coming off of arguably his best outing of the season from this past Saturday against the Guardians where he threw six shutout innings, allowing just three hits, a walk, and recorded six strikeouts -- good for 23.1 DKFP/40 FDFP. Now he is priced way down and draws a home match-up with the Oakland A’s. Personally speaking, I’ve stopped “auto-attacking” this A’s offense in recent weeks because, honestly, they’re not playing that bad (110 wRC+ L2Wks, ranks 11th). But they’re far, far away from a premiere offense and they’re due to regress to the mean any day now. Even during their somewhat successful stretch of offense recently, they still offer up plenty of strikeouts (25.7% kRate L2Wks, 3rd highest). Lynn could easily pay off these low-end salaries and it helps that the White Sox head into this game as heavy -195 home favorites.

Also Consider:

Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.1k | vs. SEA

Kyle Wright (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.5k | vs. ARI

Martin Perez (LHP), TEX | DK:$8.4k, FD: $9.6k | @ LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Julio Urias (LHP), LAD

Non-Coors Stacks to Consider

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

The Cardinals have been excellent on the offensive side of the ball. Over the last two weeks, their .373 team wOBA and 145 wRC+ ranks second in the MLB behind only the Toronto Blue Jays. They’ll face off with veteran gas can Anibal Sanchez (6.30 ERA, 4.46 xFIP, 1.40 WHIP, 23.1% HR/FB Rate) this evening who has not been overly effective in either of his first two starts of the season. Be mindful of the weather here but if it looks like they’ll get a full game in, the Cardinals could make for a nice pivot away from Coors Field.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite STL Bats: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill | Sneaky Bat: Lars Nootbaar (2% pOwn%)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Boston Red Sox Bullpen

Rookie Brayan Bello (10.50 ERA, 4.86 xFIP, 2.50 WHIP) was slated to make his fourth career start but he’ll instead likely set up as Boston’s ‘bulk reliever’ while LHP Austin Davis (4.50 ERA, 4.61 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP) serves as the opener. The Brewers enter this game with a ton of offensive momentum after posting a .377 team wOBA and 143 wRC+ over the last week (rank 2nd in both categories). So, I’ll be happy to take some shots on Brewers stacks against a talented but struggling rookie and a Red Sox bullpen that has an 8.31 ERA and 1.83 WHIP over the last two weeks. Yes, a lot of that bullpen damage was done in the 28-5 loss to Toronto last Friday but they’ve been pretty bad outside of that game as well.

BOS Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite MIL Bats: Hunter Renfroe, Christian Yelich, Luis Urias | Sneaky Bat: Kolten Wong (2% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

Sandoval is a solid pitcher but the Rangers tend to hit lefties well, ranking 6th in the MLB with a 115 wRC+ and 2nd with a .199 ISO. Sandoval has some above-average strikeout stuff but he has struggled with walks this season (12.5% BB%) which has led to a lofty 1.51 WHIP (second-highest among today’s starters). The Rangers could theoretically have a couple of big innings against Sandoval before a mediocre, at best, Angels bullpen comes in to pitch in the back half of this game.

LAA Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite TEX Bats: Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, Jonah Heim | Sneaky Bat: Leody Tavares (<1% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.9k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Bryan Garcia (RHP), DET

OF Juan Soto | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

2B Brendan Rodgers | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Julio Urias (LHP), LAD

OF Christian Yelich | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Red Sox Bullpen

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B Luis Urias | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Red Sox Bullpen

3B Alec Bohm | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), PIT

2B/OF Gavin Lux | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

1B Yuli Gurriel | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SEA

OF Kyle Garlick | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Blake Snell (LHP), SD

OF Trayce Thompson | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

1B/2B Cavan Biggio | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Bryan Garcia (RHP), DET

OF Jake Lamb | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

OF Lars Nootbaar | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

Before sitting out the two-game series in Toronto, Goldschmidt had blasted out five home runs in his previous four games. We can look for him to stay hot against Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has only faced 16 RHBs this season but he has already given up two home runs to that side of the plate along with a 54.5% HardContact%. Goldschmidt is an absolute monster against LHPs but he’s been elite against RHPs as well: .305 AVG, .404 wOBA, .253 ISO, 167 wRC+, 19.4% HR/FB Rate. He’s a strong bet to take either Sanchez or a Nats bullpen arm deep today.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Alek Manoah to Record a Win: Yes | -152 (Caesars) | 2.5 Units

We’ll start off with a fairly safe bet today with Manoah picking up a win. In nine home starts, he holds a 6-1 record. Toronto (-360) are the second-heaviest favorites of the day and the Detroit Tigers are notoriously bad against right-handed pitching. Manoah has pitched at least five full innings in all 19 of his starts this season so, barring injury, he’s a near lock to pitch deep enough to qualify for the win, loss, or no decision. The most likely outcome here is he snags his 12th win of the season tonight.

Juan Soto to Record an RBI: Yes | +210 (PointsBet) | 1.5 Units

Outside of just blasting solo home runs, it’s difficult for Soto to record any RBIs when no one around him is getting on base. He’s been in a little mini-slump himself over the last handful of games but I like the +210 odds on this RBI prop. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas has not been very sharp on the road recently. He’s racked up a 6.06 ERA, .355 opp wOBA, and 1.44 WHIP over his last three road starts along with a 2.20 HR/9 Rate. He’s been particularly bad against LHBs in that span as well: 9.45 ERA, .429 wOBA, 1.80 WHIP, 4.10 HR/9 Rate. If Mikolas continues to struggle, it’ll be a great spot for Soto to pick up one of his final RBIs in a Nationals uniform. 

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!