Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Check out LineStar's free 2023 MLB DFS Strategy Guide 

• Sign-up for PrizePicks using Promo Code "BETFULLY" to get 2-months free of LineStar Premium.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

Top Daily Sportsbook Offers 7/28/23

These are the BEST promos our sportsbooks partners are offering now + some BetFully rewards as well! If you took advantage of all these offers, you'd have about $3450 from operating partners & about $250* from BetFully cashback rewards. Pretty cool right?

Bet365

• Bet $1 and get $200 in Bonus Bets + $50 from BetFully

  _{Available in NJ only}

BetMGM

• Up to $1000 paid back in Bonus Bets if you don't win + $40 from BetFully

  _{Available in IN, WV, CO, IA, OH, MI, MS, IL, TN, NJ, DC, KS, NY, LA, WY, AZ}

BetRivers

• 2nd Chance Bonus Bet Up to $500

  Promo code: SPORTS + $30 from BetFully

• Available in AZ, CO, IL, IN, NJ, PA

Caesars

• Place a first-time wager of up to $1,250, get it back in the form of a Bonus Bet if you lose.

• Promo code: BETFULLYFULL + $40 from BetFully

  _{Available in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MA, MD, MI, NY, NJ, OH, ON, PA, TN, VA, WV, DC}

FanDuel

• Bet $20 Get $200 in Bonus Bets + $40 from BetFully

  _{Available in AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MA, MD, MI, NY, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV}

Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).

*$3450 + $250 from BetFully assumes you took advantage of all of these offers and their individual requirements from the operators themselves. They all have very specific terms and conditions listed on the promo page when you click through. Please make sure to read them carefully. Many are state specific. BetFully bonuses are obtained by going THROUGH the BetFully app, opting into those offers, and using associated links. Although we do our absolute best to verify current promos, sometimes errors are made, and we cannot be responsible for any error listed above.

OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

There wasn’t much MLB action going on yesterday, but that’s certainly not the case today! A massive 14-game main slate hits the Friday schedule and it is LOADED with possibilities -- several aces on the mound, quality value pitching, Coors Field is back in play, juicy non-Coors stacks, and a slew of viable value bats. Let’s strap in and get to it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• PHI @ PIT (7:05 ET): A sizable storm system is making its way toward PIT this afternoon, and the timing will bring forth some legitimate concern as the rain is set to arrive around first pitch and last at least a couple of hours. For now, we’ll keep this game within DFS consideration but a pre-game radar check will be necessary.

• NYY @ BAL (7:05 ET): There will be a similar outlook here as there is in PIT, but a bit less concern overall. Some storms look as if they may come through around first pitch so a late start is in play here and it’ll be worth checking on the pre-game radar as well. Assuming they can play, there will be great hitting conditions with hot/humid temps and 10 mph winds blowing OUT to center/left.

• WAS @ NYM (7:10 ET): Hot and humid with winds around 10 mph blowing OUT to center. Chance for some late-inning precipitation so a delay can’t be ruled out, but they should be able to get nine innings played either way.

• CLE @ CWS (7:10 ET): Storms are expected to arrive around 10 ET so the hope is that they’ll get a full game played in time. However, those storms could easily arrive a bit earlier which may lead to the game getting called in the later innings. Keep that possibility in mind when selecting players from this game (specifically, the hitters).

• MIL @ ATL (7:20 ET): Low-end chance for a late start. Not a major concern.

• MIN @ KC (8:10 ET): VERY hot with temps over 100 degrees at first pitch. Humid as well with winds blowing OUT to left/center around 10 mph. Nice bump to bats.

• CHI @ STL (8:15 ET): Similar forecast as KC. Bump to bats.

• BOS @ SF (10:15 ET): Cool temps in the mid-50s and those 10 mph winds blowing out are not going to be as noticeable at Oracle Park, which mitigates wind impacts. So, this game features the best pitching conditions on the slate.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $10.8k, FD: $10.9k | vs. LAA

Gausman continues to put together an extremely strong 2023 campaign and he’s successfully secured DFS scores of at least 17.2 DKFP/30 FDFP in 17-of-20 starts this season. His 2.91 xFIP leads all pitchers on the slate and his 32.9% kRate trails only Atlanta’s Spencer Strider for the MLB lead among qualified starters. Gausman has also been more dangerous at home this season where he has averaged +36.4% more DKFPPG while boasting a 2.58 ERA, 2.36 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP, and a monster 37.1% kRate.

I know many folks choose to avoid pitchers facing the Angels purely because of the Ohtani effect. It’s a valid concern and the Angels, as a team, have procured a 113 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month (ranks 11th). However, they also strike out at a high clip with a 27.2% kRate vs. RHPs in that same span. Gausman throws a primary pitch mix of 4-seamers (50.5%) and split-fingers (37.5%). The Angels have the 4th-highest strikeout rate (26.3%) against those two pitches this season. The Angels do have plenty of lefty bats they can roll out against Gausman today and Ohtani’s presence will always put a pitcher’s upside in danger. But Gausman has simply been dominant at home and brings some serious double-digit strikeout potential to the table so he’s well worth some DFS consideration today. The Blue Jays also enter in as heavy -192 ML favorites.

MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.9k | @ NYM

Consistency may not be Gore’s best trait, but he has displayed ample upside throughout this season and lands in a strong match-up at a pitcher-friendly ballpark. He’s coming off of a solid outing against the Giants where he threw 5.0 innings of shutout baseball, allowing just four hits, two walks, no runs, and striking out eight. Gore has also been noticeably better on the road this season where he has posted a 3.45 xFIP and a borderline elite 29.7% kRate.

Gore will face a Mets team that has done very little offensively against lefty pitchers lately. Versus LHPs over the last month (293 PA), the Mets are hitting a measly .201 (ranks 29th) with a .605 OPS (28th), .273 wOBA (28th), .110 ISO (26th), and 74 wRC+ (28th) while striking out 24.6% of the time (8th most). It’s a fairly small sample size, but in 38 PA versus the current Mets roster, Gore has held them to a .206 AVG and .246 wOBA while posting a huge 34.2% kRate. The last time Gore faced the Mets at Citi Field (April 26th), he pitched a gem of a game with a pitching line of 6.0 IP (101 PC), 4 H, 2 BB, 1 ER, and 10 K -- good for 31.9 DKFP/55 FDFP. The floor is pretty low but the ceiling for Gore is about as high as any pitcher on the slate and he should provide some strong leverage with a <10% pOwn% on both sites today.

Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.2k | @ SF

We’ll spotlight another cheap SP option today with Kutter Crawford taking on the Giants on the road. Road games have been where Crawford has shined this season, which isn’t a major surprise given Fenway Park’s very hitter-friendly dimensions. But his home/away splits are so stark that they’re worth showing in further detail:

Home: 31.1 IP, 6.03 ERA, 4.65 xFIP, 1.31 WHIP, .333 opp wOBA, 20.0% kRate.

Away: 40.0 IP, 2.48 ERA, 3.88 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, .279 opp wOBA, 27.3% kRate.

Overall, Crawford is averaging +45.6% more FPPG on the road and he’ll be taking the mound in the most pitcher-friendly conditions on the entire slate. The Giants have also been abysmal against RHPs over the last month, ranking dead last in batting average (.209), last in OPS (.646), 29th in wOBA (.284), 28th in wRC+ (78), and their 27.7% kRate has been the second-highest in the MLB in that month-long stretch. The Red Sox have been excellent in the month of July with an MLB-best 14-5 record so Crawford should be handed some solid run support as well. He has been wildly inconsistent this season, but this is about as ideal of a spot as he could land in. Similar to the aforementioned Gore, Crawford will be another great, affordable leverage option at <10% pOwn% on both sites.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.6k | @ PIT (Monitor weather)

Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.8k | vs. WAS

Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.7k | vs. CIN

Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.7k | vs. NYY

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Colorado Rockies vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

Oakland Athletics vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Non-Coors Stacks

Minnesota Twins vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

+ Twins: 5.4 implied runs (ranks T-1st among non-Coors teams).

+ Singer has a .362 opp wOBA vs. LHBs and a 7.74 ERA vs. RHBs so both sides of the plate can do some damage against him.

+ While the Twins do strike out more than any team in baseball vs. RHPs (29.7% kRate L30Days), they have still been a very dangerous offense against righties -- Twins offensive ranks vs. RHPs L30Days: 4th in OPS, 4th in wOBA, 1st in ISO, 2nd in wRC+, and 4th in HRs.

+ Exceptional hitting conditions in KC today (VERY hot, humid, and winds blowing out) in what is already a hitter-friendly ballpark (Kauffman Stadium #7 hitter’s park this season).

+ Over the last month, the Royals bullpen has posted a 6.31 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and an MLB-worst 5.30 xFIP.

+ Value bats galore within this Twins lineup.

- Singer has been better at home (+21.7% more FPPG), and he’s been very solid over his last five starts (3.66 ERA, 3.91 xFIP, 1.25 WHIP, 0.60 HR/9, 27.7% HardContact%).

Favorite MIN Bats: Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler

Bargain Bat: Matt Wallner

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Brandon Williamson (LHP), CIN

+ Dodgers: 5.3 implied runs (ranks 4th among non-Coors teams).

+ Williamson has been nothing special, specifically on the road where he has a 4.95 ERA, 5.21 xFIP, 1.40 WHIP, and 18.8% kRate.

+ Against RHBs, Williamson has allowed a lofty .251 ISO and 1.96 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Dodgers aren’t necessarily great against LHPs top to bottom but their big three hitters (Betts, Freeman, and W. Smith) all have at least a .413 wOBA vs. LHPs this season.

+ Dodgers are averaging 5.50 runs/gm at home this season.

+ Based on their 4.99 xFIP, the Reds have had the 4th worst bullpen over the last month.

- Core Dodgers bats are expensive and likely to carry moderately high ownership.

- The Dodgers have a very average 104 wRC+ vs. LHPs over the last month.

Favorite LAD Bats: Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Freddie Freeman

Bargain Bat: Chris Taylor

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Yonny Chirinos (RHP), ATL

+ 8-of-9 Brewers bats have a 7% pOwn% or lower.

+ Chirinos makes his Braves debut but has not been good this season -- his 5.39 xFIP is the second-worst among today’s starters.

+ Since June 13th (28.0 IP), Chirinos has posted a very poor 5.79 ERA, 5.28 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP, .321 opp AVG, .417 opp wOBA, and 2.30 HR/9 Rate.

+ The Brewers have not been a great offense this season but, based on their 97 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month, they’ve been more “average” than downright bad.

+ Braves bullpen is very banged up at the moment and has been getting beat up in recent games.

+ Truist Park has been the #6 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

- The Brewers have not scored more than five runs in a game since July 7th.

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, William Contreras, Sal Frelick

Bargain Bat: Andruw Monasterio

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Brandon Williamson (LHP), CIN

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

1B Bryce Harper, PHI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Yonny Chirinos (RHP), ATL

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

3B Manny Machado, SD | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), LAA

1B CJ Cron, COL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

OF Tony Kemp, OAK | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

1B Josh Naylor, CLE | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), CWS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Ha-Seong Kim, SD | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

SS Amed Rosario, LAD | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Brandon Williamson (LHP), CIN

OF Lars Nootbaar, STL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. TBA, CHC

OF Tyler O’Neill, STL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. TBA, CHC

OF Sal Frelick, MIL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Yonny Chirinos (RHP), ATL

2B Edouard Julien, MIN | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

OF Max Kepler, MIN | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

C Bo Naylor, CLE | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), CWS

1B Alex Kiriloff, MIN | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

OF Matt Wallner, MIN | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

OF/SS Gabriel Arias, CLE | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), CWS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Sorry, no PrizePicks plays today!

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!