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- Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 7/28 | Breaking Down Thursday's Eight-Game Slate!
Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 7/28 | Breaking Down Thursday's Eight-Game Slate!
Will the Detroit Tigers continue to thrive against left-handed pitching? Read on to see why they're worth some consideration today...
Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.
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Main Slate Rundown š
Thirsty Thursday, anyone? Weāll look to fill up our cup to the brim with this eight-game main slate! There will be several solid pitching options to choose from, some juicy-looking stacks, and Coors Field is back on the docket as well. A few games will have to dodge a bit of rain but letās hope for no major issues on the weather front. Time to dive in!
Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:
Main Slate Weather Outlook āļøš¦ļøāļø
Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.
Three games to keep an eye on today -- mainly the CLE @ BOS and LAD @ COL games. Weāll need to peep the forecasts closer to first pitch but, as of now, I donāt believe weāll see any postponements. That is the hope, anyway.
KC @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): There is potential for a late start here since they may need to wait for a line of storms to clear, but once they get going, no further interruptions are expected. Winds blowing OUT to left at 5-10 mph.
CLE @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): Looks like theyāll be able to start dry here but some scattered storms threaten to move in during the mid/late innings. A PPD doesnāt seem to be the most likely outcome, but there is some decent in-game delay risk (and a PPD canāt be completely ruled out). Perhaps they just play a bit wet as well. Winds blowing OUT to left at 10 mph.
LAD @ COL (8:40 ET, 12 O/U): The worst of the rain should be clearing around first pitch, with some lingering scattered storms hanging around the area throughout this game. Decent chance they dodge trouble, but there is still some delay/PPD risk.
Pitchers to Consider ā¾
Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.7k | @ PIT
Wheelerās performances have taken a dip when pitching on the road this season, but heāll find himself in a nice match-up with a below-average offense that likes to strike out a lot. The Pirates have a 25.4% kRate vs. RHPs this season, the second-highest in the MLB. Wheeler typically manages to pitch very deep into games and has gone seven full innings in three of his last four while averaging 101.2 pitches/gm over his last five. He should be able to push for around 25 DKFP/45 FDFP in this match-up today.
Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $8.9k, FD: $11.1k | vs. TEX
Another Ohtani pitching slate comes around, and what do you know? DraftKings STILL isnāt pricing him correctly. As a result, expect an $8,900 Ohtani to be north of 50% owned in DraftKings GPPs but itāll be tough to get away from him completely. As per usual, he leads all pitchers on the slate with his monstrous 35.9% kRate and 15.8% Swinging Strike Rate. And heās posted up an insane 45.2% kRate over his previous five starts while throwing 102.6 pitches/gm (leads the slate). Texas offers up a decent amount of strikeouts (23.1% kRate vs. RHPs) and theyāve been right around a league-average offense against righties (104 wRC+ over the last month, ranks 15th). Ohtani is also back pitching at home where he usually provides a bit more safety and upside. Even at $11.1k on FanDuel, he should be the chalkiest pitcher on both sites but itāll be some scary chalk to fade, thatās for sure.
Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.1k | vs. CLE
Reminder: Keep an eye out on the forecast for this game since a middle-inning delay is possible.
The risk is obvious here but if you want to get different in GPPs while freeing up some salary for a bunch of big bats, Crawfordās 27.0% kRate looks pretty enticing. Itās easily the highest kRate among the cheap pitchers today. Unfortunately, Cleveland is a very tough team to strikeout. Their 16.8% kRate vs. RHPs is the lowest in the league over the last month. Vegas has this game as essentially a pick āem and Crawford has pitched at least five innings in five of his last six starts. So, if Boston can give him some run support, he could put himself in line for the win while racking up a handful of strikeouts along the way.
Also Consider:
Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.3k | vs. KC
Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.1k | vs. SEA
Alex Wood (LHP), SF | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.4k | vs. CHCļ»æ
Team Stacks to Target šÆ
Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.
Obligatory Coors Field Stacks
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL
Colorado Rockies vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAD
Non-Coors Stacks to Consider
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET
The Blue Jays are no strangers to falling completely flat when theyāre in good spots (e.g. their one-run performance yesterday), but they deserve some stack consideration today. LHP Tyler Alexander has been coming out of the bullpen for the last month-and-a-half but, due to a slew of pitching injuries for Detroit, he is being thrust into a starting role today. His 4.77 xFIP checks in as the third-worst among the slateās starters and heās going to have to deal with a very right-handed heavy Blue Jays lineup that will be rolling out nine RHBs today. Over the last three seasons, Alexander has allowed a poor .359 wOBA and .212 ISO to RHBs. He may only pitch three or four innings but the Blue Jays will also be hitting against a Tigers bullpen that has been stretched pretty thin. The Tigers relievers have pitched an MLB-high 31.0 innings over the last week so things could go south for them very quickly.
DET Bullpen Rating: 3/10
Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, Matt Chapman | Sneaky Bat: Santiago Espinal (2% pOwn%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR
The Tigers knocking around left-handed pitchers has been āa thingā this season and we saw it first hand recently when they beat up on Padres LHP Sean Manaea on Monday. Over the last month vs. LHPs, Detroit actually ranks out as a top five offense: .309 AVG (3rd), .354 wOBA (5th), 131 wRC+ (5th). And anyone who follows baseball somewhat closely knows that Yusei Kikuchi tends to get blown up early. Over his last six starts, Kikuchi has lasted just 19.0 innings on the mound while racking up an 8.05 ERA, 5.40 xFIP, .460 opp wOBA, 2.05 WHIP, and a 3.30 HR/9 Rate! Rough stuff. This stack couldāve honestly gone in the ālow owned stackā section below since the hitter with the highest pOwn% is Robbie Grossman at 11%. But letās see if Detroit can continue mashing lefties today. All of these Detroit bats are cheap too, which is another big plus.
TOR Bullpen Rating: 7/10
Favorite DET Bats: Javier Baez, Robbie Grossman, Eric Haase | Sneaky Bat: Jeimer Candelario (4% pOwn%)
Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out š¤
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Zach Thompson (RHP), PIT
This is a bit of a dicey stack because the Phillies simply have far too many games over the last few weeks where theyāve strung together just two or three runs. But Zach Thompson (4.64 ERA, 4.58 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP) is a mediocre starter that they could find some success against. The best match-ups could come when the Pirates are forced to go to their bullpen. Over the last two weeks, Pirates relievers have combined for a .345 opp AVG, 1.81 WHIP, and just a 16.0% kRate.
PIT Bullpen Rating: 2/10
Favorite PHi Bats: Kyle Schwarber, Darick Hall, Alec Bohm | Sneaky Bat: Garrett Stubbs (1% pOwn%)
One-Off Bats āļø
Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.
OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.9k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC
OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Tyler Gilbert (RHP), SEA
1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL
OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU
1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET
OF Kris Bryant | DK: $5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAD
SS Javier Baez | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR
Bargain Batters šø
Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.
Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings
3B Matt Chapman | DK: $4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET
OF Taylor Ward | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Spencer Howard (RHP), TEX
1B Josh Naylor | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS
1B Darick Hall | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Zach Thompson (RHP), PIT
1B Jared Walsh | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Spencer Howard (RHP), TEX
OF Nolan Jones | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS
3B Jeimer Candelario | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR
OF Jake Lamb | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL
Home Run Call of the Day š£š„
SS Javier Baez | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR
Kikuchi has been handing out home runs like candy to opposing hitters, giving up seven within his last six starts (19.0 IP). All seven of those HRs came off the bats of right-handed hitters. In that stretch, Kikuchi has posted a 3.80 HR/9 Rate, 43.8% HR/FB Rate, and 52.3% HardContact% to RHBs. Javy Baez has a team-leading .244 ISO vs. LHPs this season. He has a fairly low 32.3% FB% vs. LHPs on the season, but if he gets under one of Kikuchiās pitches, it could very well be sailing over the fence. Hereās to hoping Baez can get two or three cracks at Kikuchi before heās taken off the mound today.
Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!
Players Props & Bets š°
Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size
Shohei Ohtani UNDER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed | +125 (BetMGM) | 2.0 Units
Ohtaniās last start on the mound was the first time in seven outings that he gave up more than one earned run to his opponent. Heās boasting a 2.08 ERA at home this season and the Rangers have been a very mediocre offense so letās look for Ohtani to post either a clean sheet or maybe just give up one run during his time on the mound today.
Robbie Grossman OVER 0.5 Bases | -165 (DraftKings) | 2.5 Units
As mentioned in the home run call section where Iām picking Javy Baez to go yard today, Kikuchi has been awful against RHBs. Heās allowing a .323 AVG and .483 wOBA to RHBs across his last six outings. Conversely, Grossman has been hitting lefties extremely well this season to the tune of a .363 AVG and .434 wOBA. Heās slotted in as Detroitās lead-off man today so heāll have a great chance to record at least one base hit and cash this prop without much of a sweat.
LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!
š LineStar Community DONG Calls š
Best of luck out there today, everyone!