To Scherzer, or not to Scherzer? That will be a big question to answer on this small slate.

Pennd By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Check out LineStar's free 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide 

• Sign-up for PrizePicks using Promo Code "BETFULLY" to get 2-months free of LineStar Premium.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

OnDeck Podcast 📣

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! Never know when we'll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

With most games being played in the early window today, we’ll be left with a small five-gamer for this evening’s main slate. A reminder that this slate will begin with the MIA @ CIN game at 6:40 ET/3:40 PT! Things will also wrap up early today since the latest first pitch is in the NYY @ NYM ‘Subway Series’ match-up beginning at 7:10 ET/4:10 PT. This newsletter will be more of a quick read but let’s plan on crushing this short slate!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

MIA @ CIN (6:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Could see a stray storm over the ballpark here but it isn’t a major concern. Winds blowing OUT to left near 10 mph.

TB @ BAL (7:05 ET, 8 O/U): Scattered storms in the area but it’s looking like they’ll be pretty low coverage. Can’t rule out some sort of delay, however.

NYY @ NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to left at 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.5k | vs. NYY

On his 38th birthday, Scherzer will be taking on his toughest opponent of the season, but he’s still Max Scherzer, so that should ease some concerns. His 33.8% kRate easily leads all pitchers on this slate and he’s allowing less than a base runner per inning with a sharp 0.89 WHIP. In 108 PA against this Yankees lineup, Scherzer has held them to a .215 AVG and .271 wOBA as well. Don’t expect a ceiling game out of Scherzer tonight, but he should be a solid bet to return north of 20 DKFP/35 FDFP. If you can find two or three cheap bats that you’re comfortable with, you’ll be able to squeeze him into lineups.

Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.3k | @ BAL

It’s not a great slate for pitching, especially if you’re looking for a cheaper arm to roll out. But Rasmussen does make some sense at only $7,300 on both sites. His 20.6% kRate is just below league average, but he has accumulated a very respectable 3.13 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the season. Roughly 60% of Rasmussen’s pitch mix this season has been sliders and cutters. Baltimore has a fairly high 25.7% kRate against those pitches this season so I believe Rasmussen has some decent potential to rack up five or six Ks while limiting the O’s run damage. In 38 PA against this Baltimore lineup, Rasmussen has kept them to a meager .176 AVG with a .246 wOBA.

Also Consider:

Luis Castillo (RHP), CIN | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.6k | vs. MIA

Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.6k | vs. TB

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

The veteran Wainwright is not going to be an easy guy to knock around but he’ll be tasked with shutting down a red hot Blue Jays offense that has recorded a 166 wRC+ over the last two weeks and a massive 205 wRC+ over the last week. Even if you take away the 28-run performance last Friday, Toronto’s recent offensive measurables remain near the top of the MLB rankings. The real upside will possibly stem from the Cardinals bullpen which has been a bottom 10 relief unit lately (L2Wks: 6.04 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 1.78 HR/9) so the sooner Toronto can kick Waino off the mound, the better.

STL Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez | Sneaky Bat: Matt Chapman (5% pOwn)

Cincinnati Reds vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

Great American Ballpark has unsurprisingly ranked as the second most favorable hitter’s ballpark this season behind Coors Field, and it’ll be warm with winds blowing out to left at 10 mph today. It seems logical to get some exposure to some bats here, particularly on the Cincinnati side. The Reds are averaging 5.14 runs/gm at home this season (3rd most in MLB) and they’re typically better against lefties (116 wRC+, .350 wOBA, .180 ISO vs. LHPs at home). Braxton Garrett is a decent left-handed starter but he’s still someone that the Reds bats could do some damage against. The Marlins also have a “good, not great” bullpen that has allowed a .275 AVG and 1.49 WHIP in the L2Wks.

MIA Bullpen Rating: 6/10

Favorite CIN Bats: Brandon Drury, Jonathan India, Kyle Farmer | Sneaky Bat: Matt Reynolds (3% pOwn)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

New York Yankees vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM

This is all about gaining leverage in GPPs on a small slate. Outside of Aaron Judge (13% pOwn), all other Yankees hitters are projected to carry <3% ownership. It’s not a likely pathway to success, but anything can happen in baseball and if there’s an offense that can cause Max Scherzer and the Mets bullpen to have a bad day, it’d probably be the Yankees.

NYM Bullpen Rating: 7/10

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Matt Carpenter, DJ LeMahieu | Sneaky Bat: Anthony Rizzo (<1% pOwn)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Domingo German (RHP), NYY

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

3B Brandon Drury | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

OF Randy Arozarena | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Jonathan India | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

3B Matt Chapman | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

1B Josh Naylor | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS

OF Steven Kwan | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS

SS Kyle Farmer | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Brandon Drury | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

Brandon Drury has some absolutely massive numbers when playing against lefties at home this season: .356 AVG, .467 wOBA, .390 ISO, 200 wRC+, 46.5% HardContact%, 31.6% HR/FB Rate. Braxton Garrett has only surrendered five home runs this season in 47.1 IP, but four of those HRs came when he was pitching on the road -- all four to RHBs as well. Great American Ballpark possesses the best hitting conditions on this slate so Drury will just need to get under one and it’ll have a high chance of exiting the ballpark.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Brandon Drury OVER 1.5 Total Bases | -105 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Secondary Prop: Drury to Hit a Home Run | +350 (FanDuel) | 0.5 Units

Let’s ride with Drury for a couple of props today. To see why I like him to hit a home run, peep the home run call section. At the very least, I see Drury collecting multiple bases today. He’ll face the lefty Braxton Garrett in this game. Drury is hitting .322 with a .436 wOBA vs. LHPs this season and 16 of his 29 hits against lefties have gone for extra bases. 

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!