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- Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 7/26 | Getting Creative on Wednesday's Small Five-Game Slate!
Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 7/26 | Getting Creative on Wednesday's Small Five-Game Slate!
7/26 Optimal MLB DFS Choices and Notable Prop Bets for the Compact Five-Game Lineup
Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.
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Main Slate Rundown 🏟
It’s an all-day MLB affair with plenty of games either about to start or already well underway. Ultimately, all 30 teams are taking the diamond today but we’ll only have a five-game setup for this evening’s main slate. So, it’s time to get a little creative and test our small slate chops! This should be a fun little slate so let’s hop to it. Best of luck!
Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:
Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️
Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.
No notable weather issues today!
Pitchers to Consider ⚾
Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $12.7k, FD: $11.2k | @ BOS
A smaller slate leaves fewer “big questions” to answer but arguably the biggest will be “to spend or not to spend up on Strider?” His 39.7% kRate and 19.8% SwStr% continue to lead all qualified MLB starters by a wide margin and, over his last five starts, he has seen a slight uptick in punch outs with a 41.7% kRate while notching double-digit Ks in four of his last five. Strider’s immense strikeout upside has also helped to offset some run damage lately. Despite surrendering nine ER across his last two starts, he has still come away with respectable DFS scores of 27.9 DKFP/45 FDFP (vs. ARI, 13 K) and 18.7 DKFP/33 FDFP (vs. CWS, 10 K).
It’ll be a tricky spot for Strider today. He’s on the road at Fenway Park, which has been the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season. Based on their 125 wRC+, the Red Sox have also been the third-best offense versus RHPs over the last month and their 21.2% kRate in that same span is not particularly high. The Red Sox also rank 7th on the season against RHP 4-seamers and sliders -- those two pitch types account for 92.6% of Strider’s pitch arsenal. But, even if he gives up a few hits and runs, Strider’s strikeout prowess tends to come through no matter the match-up -- case and point, his 13 K performance last Thursday against an Arizona team that has the 3rd lowest kRate vs. RHPs this season. As long as you can find some fairly productive cheap bats, Strider should continue to land on the DFS radar today.
Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY | DK: $9k, FD: $7.6k | vs. NYM
Rodon’s tenure as a Yankee has gotten off to a rough start, to say the least. In three outings this season (14.2 IP), he has put up a 7.36 ERA, 6.28 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP, 16.9% kRate, and 13.8% BB%. The only real positive to take away from his 2023 results is the 12.7% SwStr% which indicates some significant positive strikeout regression is due. Rodon was one of the best starting pitchers in the MLB in the ‘21 and ‘22 seasons but he has clearly built up quite a bit of rust after sitting out most of this season with back and forearm injuries. Ahead of his 2023 MLB debut on July 7th, Rodon was looking great in his rehab starts so we have to assume the “stuff” is still there and he’ll return to form at the big league level sooner rather than later.
Rodon will match up with the always-inconsistent Mets offense that has really struggled against LHPs lately. Over the last month against lefties, the Mets are hitting just .201 with a .273 wOBA and 74 wRC+ -- all bottom five numbers in the MLB during that span. Their 25.0% kRate vs. LHPs (L30Days) is also the 8th highest in the MLB. This is a good spot for Rodon to “figure it out” at home and the Yankees (-152 ML odds) are moderately heavy favorites as well. He’s far from a safe play at the moment, but Rodon’s $7,600 price tag on FanDuel makes him a particularly intriguing option for GPPs.
Alex Wood (LHP), SF | DK: $6k, FD: $6.8k | vs. OAK
Wood is slated to fill in as the “bulk reliever” for the Giants tonight behind opener Ryan Walker. It’s been a very turbulent season for Wood, who comes into tonight with a 4.99 ERA, 5.41 xFIP, 1.54 WHIP, and 19.5% kRate. However, Wood has made three previous appearances out of the bullpen this season, and, in two of those games, he posted some of his best DFS scores of the season with 26.7 DKFP/42 FDFP against Toronto on 6/27 and 18.9 DKFP/30 FDFP on 7/8 against the Rockies, earning wins in both games.
The Oakland A’s have been sneaky decent against LHPs over the last month (98 wRC+, ranks 17th). However, they’ve been firmly a bottom-10 offense against lefties throughout the season and they head into this game having scored more than four runs in just two of their last 15 games. The Giants (-240 ML) are, by far, the heaviest favorites on the slate so if Wood can deliver around five solid innings in relief, he could position himself in line for an easy win as well. At $6k/$6.8k, Wood is far from a terrible punt option.
Other Pitchers to Consider
Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $10.9k, FD: $10.3k | vs. TEX
Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.6k | @ CWS
Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.2k | @ NYY
Team Stacks to Target 🎯
Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.
Chicago Cubs (LHBs Preferred) vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS
+ Cubs: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-3rd on the slate).
+ Lynn has great strikeout stuff (27.3% kRate, 14.0% SwStr%) but he continues to give up barreled balls and home runs -- he’s allowed 10 barreled balls in the last 30 days (bottom 5th percentile) and has a high 21.5% HR/FB Rate (highest among this slate’s starters).
+ Lynn has been particularly awful against LHBs: 8.03 ERA, 1.99 WHIP, .338 AVG, .445 wOBA, .315 ISO, 3.28 HR/9, 26.5% HR/FB Rate.
+ The Cubs have been extremely hot against RHPs over the last two weeks, ranking 1st in the MLB in each of the following metrics: .339 AVG, .978 OPS, .417 wOBA, and 165 wRC+.
+ In 53 PA vs. Lynn, the current Cubs roster has a .306 AVG, .426 wOBA, and 18.9% kRate.
+ The White Sox have had a bottom-10 bullpen this season.
- Lynn averages +20.2% more FPPG at home and any Cubs stack may be fairly reliant on hitting home runs off of Lynn.
Favorite CHC Bats: Cody Bellinger, Mike Tauchman, Ian Happ
Bargain Bat: Miles Mastrobuoni
Atlanta Braves vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS
+ Braves: 5.4 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).
+ Bello has been a rock-solid starter for much of the season but he has been giving up a lot of barreled balls (9 barrels L30Days, bottom 5th percentile) and his kRate has dipped to 17.2% in his last five starts.
+ Braves vs. RHPs L30Days: .823 OPS (4th), .349 wOBA (4th), .254 ISO (1st), 117 wRC+ (7th), and 41.6% HardContact% (1st).
+ Fenway Park has been the #2 most hitter-friendly park this season.
- The Red Sox have had a top-five bullpen over the last month.
- Bello has been better at home where he averages +34.4% more FPPG and owns a 3.14 ERA this season.
- The Braves bats have cooled off considerably against RHPs over the last week, ranking 21st with a .298 wOBA and 23rd with an 83 wRC+.
Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Michael Harris II
Bargain Bat: Orlando Arcia
Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔
New York Yankees vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM
+ 6-of-9 Yankees hitters have a 7% pOwn% or lower.
+ The 34-year-old Quintana will be making just his second MLB start this season so there’s probably still some rust left to shake off -- he wasn’t overly sharp in his minor league rehab starts (15.2 IP) where he posted a 4.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and a 16:8 K:BB ratio.
+ Even without the services of Aaron Judge (toe/IL), the Yankees have been a strong offense against LHPs over the last month: .820 OPS (6th), .349 wOBA (6th), .225 ISO (2nd), 125 wRC+ (6th), and 19.3% kRate (4th lowest).
+ The Mets bullpen has ranked bottom-10 over the last month with a 4.79 xFIP (6th worst) and 1.47 WHIP (8th worst).
Favorite NYY Bats: Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Harrison Bader
Bargain Bat: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
One-Off Bats ☝️
A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.
1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS
OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC
3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL
OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY | DK: $5k, FD: $3k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM
SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY
1B/OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS
OF Chas McCormick, HOU | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX
Bargain Batters 💸
Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.
Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings
OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL
OF Eloy Jimenez, CWS | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC
1B Jose Abreu, HOU | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX
2B Zack Gelof, OAK | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), SF
1B Wilmer Flores, SF | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Hogan Harris (LHP), OAK
OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS
OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS
3B Miles Mastrobuoni, CHC | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Lance lynn (RHP), CWS
OF Isiah Kiner-Falefa, NYY | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM
Home Run Calls of the Day 💣
⚾️ Home Run Calls ⚾️
Please participate in our HR Calls contest and get a chance to win big!
Here's how to enter:
- Follow @LineStarApp
- Like & Retweet this postToday's Picks:
@Sha@ShannonOnSportsfael Devers
@Fla@flattyler83chael Harris
@Rya@Ryan_Humphriestt Olson… httptwitter.com/i/web/status/1…p— 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗥 𝗗𝗙𝗦 & 𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗣𝗦 (@LineStarApp)
7:03 PM • Jul 26, 2023
Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Giancarlo Stanton MORE than 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
Cody Bellinger MORE than 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
🆕 Props AI 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.
Best of luck out there today, everyone!
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