Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 7/26 | Bouncing Back on Takedown Tuesday

July 26, 2022

After a ho-hum Monday slate, where are we looking to excel on Tuesday's massive 13-gamer?

Pennd By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Happy Takedown Tuesday! I don’t know about you guys but that slate yesterday was a bit of a rough one. Some bleak calls were made in the newsletter, but, hey, some days, that’s just how MLB DFS is gonna go for ya. Luckily, it’s always a quick turnaround in MLB, and we certainly have no shortage of ways to go about attacking today’s monster 13-game slate! This slate features some serious strikeout pitchers, plenty of viable offenses to stack up, and Coors Field is back on the menu. Let’s have a day and take this slate down with a vengeance!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

There are no definite washouts on the board today but we will still need to monitor at least a couple of games as we get closer to first pitch.

TB @ BAL (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Scattered storms will pin some delay risk on this game. We'll need to get closer to first pitch to get a better sense of how threatening those storms may be.

LAA @ KC (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Scattered showers around in the early innings, which could miss the ballpark entirely. Storm coverage increases towards the later innings, so they may need to get this game played quickly if all nine innings are to be played. We should have a better idea of how things will play out closer to lock.

CWS @ COL (8:40 ET, 11 O/U): Low coverage storms in the area. One could make its way over the ballpark and spark a delay, but it’s more likely that they’ll play this game without any issues.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.6k | @ BAL

Reminder: Double-check the radar once we get closer to first pitch to make sure an early inning delay isn’t going to be a significant risk.

No surprise here. McClanahan has been perhaps the most consistent MLB DFS asset all season. In 18 starts, his floor has been 18 DKFP/31 FDFP and he leads all qualified MLB starters with a 1.71 ERA, 2.00 xFIP, and 2.20 SIERA. And he’s, of course, one of the premier strikeout pitchers in the league with a massive 35.7% kRate and 16.8% Swinging Strike Rate. At this point, the AL Cy Young award is McClanahan’s to lose. The Orioles have not been pushovers whatsoever this season, but they have been less effective against lefty pitchers and their 25.3% kRate vs. LHPs is the third-highest in the MLB. As long as the weather cooperates, McClanahan should be worthy of his slate-high DFS salaries.

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.1k | @ PHI

I expect many DK lineups will roll out a McClanahan/Strider SP1/SP2 pairing today, but given both guys’ insane strikeout upside, it’s hard to knock on that approach. Strider leads all MLB pitchers with his 37.9% kRate (min. 60 IP). He is coming off of a poor outing in his last start but he has now received nine days of rest which should help him when it comes to hitting the theoretical ‘reset button.’ We must remember that Strider is only 23 years old and throwing around 100 mph on every fastball while handling a starter’s workload every five days is going to be taxing, so the extra rest should bode well for him. In many aspects, Strider has pitched better on the road this season where, in 35.1 IP, he has held opponents to a .125 AVG with a 0.88 WHIP and 38.0% kRate. The Phillies have also been a strikeout-prone team as of late -- their 26.2% kRate over the last two weeks ranks as the fourth-highest in the MLB. Against RHPs during that stretch, they’re hitting only .219 with an 80 wRC+ and 30.7% kRate! Look for a bounce-back outing for Strider today.

Ethan Small (LHP), MIL | DK: $5.3k, FD: N/A | vs. MIN

Small is not in the player pool on FanDuel, but he may be worth a look as an SP2 GPP flier over on DraftKings if you’re looking to jam in a bunch of big bats. Small, a 25-year-old southpaw, is ranked as the Brewers' top pitching prospect. He made his lackluster MLB debut on the road against the Cubbies back on May 30th (2.2 IP, 4 H, 4 BB, 2 ER, 4 K) before being sent back down to Triple-A until yesterday. Small is a guy who has some solid strikeout ability. In 72.2 IP (15 starts) in Triple-A this year, he has put up a 26.4% kRate alongside a .189 opp AVG and 1.24 WHIP. The Twins will not be the easiest opponent for Small to face off with in his home debut, but on the season they’ve been a very middle-of-the-pack offense against LHPs (105 wRC+, ranks 18th). They also have three guys in their lineup today with at least a 32.5% kRate vs. LHPs (Buxton, Sanchez, Sano). Small has a chance to deliver around five innings of work. We can look for a handful of strikeouts so as long as he keeps the damage (and walks) to a minimum, it won’t take a Herculean effort to pay off his $5,300 price tag on DK.

Also Consider:

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $10k, FD: $10.6k | vs. ATL

Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.5k | @ OAK

Mike Clevinger (RHP), SD | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.1k | @ DET

Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.9k | vs. STL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Chicago White Sox vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

Other Stacks to Consider

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

Toronto’s 28-run onslaught against the Red Sox this past Friday has quite obviously buoyed their offensive numbers, but that doesn’t negate the fact that they lead all of MLB (by a wide margin) with a 161 wRC+ over the last two weeks. Pallante has shown some poor reverse splits throughout the season -- against RHBs, he’s allowing a .367 wOBA next to an awful 1.79 WHIP. He’ll have to contend with eight Blue Jays right-handed bats in the lineup today so this is a spot where Toronto can string together some offensive production quickly and get into the Cardinals unspectacular bullpen early.

STL Bullpen Rating: 5/10

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez | Sneaky Bat: Matt Chapman

San Francisco Giants (RHBs) vs. Tyler Gilbert (LHP), ARI

The Giants are a tough offense to get right and they often fall completely flat even in good spots. This is arguably a ‘great’ spot for them today, so perhaps they can actually deliver. I’d be looking at some SF right-handed bats here against Gilbert who has a poor .354 wOBA, .244 ISO, 5.65 xFIP, and 2.45 HR/9 Rate allowed to RHBs this season. The D-Backs bullpen has been pitching better as of late, but it’s not a bullpen to be afraid of by any means.

ARI Bullpen Rating: 5/10

Favorite SF Bats: Darin Ruf, Austin Slater, Yermin Mercedes | Sneaky Bat: David Villar

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

This isn’t the sneakiest of stacks, but on a 13-game slate, most (if not all) of these Royals bats are looking at sub-10% ownership. They’re going to be without Bobby Witt Jr. (hamstring) once again, but they’ve had some other hitters available who have stepped up in recent weeks. The big draw is facing off with Jose Suarez who has been posting some very poor statcast figures lately. He’s allowing an average distance of 220.7 feet on batted balls over the last 30 days (bottom 5%) along with nine barreled balls (bottom 5%), a high 50% Flyball Rate, and 26% LineDrive%. The Royals could jump on Suarez early before getting into a bad Angels bullpen.

LAA Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite KC Bats: Whit Merrifield, MJ Melendez, Hunter Dozier | Sneaky Bat: Emmanuel Rivera

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), NYM

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

OF Charlie Blackmon | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

2B Brandon Lowe | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

OF Hunter Renfroe | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), MIN

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B Matt Chapman | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

2B Whit Merrifield | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

1B Josh Naylor | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Josh Winckowski (RHP), BOS

OF Steven Kwan | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Josh Winckowski (RHP), BOS

OF Austin Slater | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Tyler Gilbert (LHP), ARI

1B Darin Ruf | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Tyler Gilbert (LHP), ARI

OF Yermin Mercedes | DK: $2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Tyler Gilbert (LHP), ARI

3B Emmanuel Rivera | DK: $2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

I’ve decided to not be too cute with my HR call today. Give me Freddie Freeman against Josiah Gray who has been gifting left-handed hitters with dingers all season. Gray has a huge 3.13 HR/9 Rate with a 22.4% HR/FB Rate against LHBs this season. Over his last 20 games against RHBs, Freeman has been scorching hot with a .436 AVG, .536 wOBA, .382 ISO, and five home runs. After getting smoked last night, look for Freeman to exact a little revenge against Josiah Gray and the Nationals tonight.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Shane McClanahan OVER 7.5 Strikeouts | -135 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

I won’t be overthinking this one. McClanahan has recorded at least eight strikeouts in six of his last eight starts, not counting his one inning pitched in the All-Star game McClanahan has had 13 days of rest, and Baltimore has the third-highest kRate vs. LHPs this season (25.3%). He should push for double-digit strikeouts today.

Mike Clevinger to Record the Win: Yes | +100 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

The Tigers jumped on Sean Manaea and the Padres yesterday, which was always going to be a possibility given how much better they are against LHPs. When a righty is on the mound, however, it is a different story. Detroit has easily been the worst offense against RHPs this season and even worse in recent weeks. Over the last two weeks against RHPs, they’re hitting for an abysmal .181 AVG with a .231 wOBA, .093 ISO, and 45 wRC+. Basically, you take an MLB team that has been around league average against RHPs in that stretch, cut their production in half, and you get the Tigers lineup. That will put RHP Mike Clevinger in a nice spot to cash in on earning the win tonight at even money odds.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

No one else responded when I sent the community dong call acceptance message so Lion22 gets their own section today!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!