Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 7/25 | Stacking Up Monday's 11-Game Slate

July 25, 2022

Several offenses are poised to break today's slate. Find out which teams may be in the best spots to provide an offensive surge!

Pennd By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’re back in business with a tantalizing 11-game slate on the docket this evening! This slate features some fairly lopsided match-ups but, for DFS purposes, I believe we’ll be able to take advantage of that. The pitching options are decent enough, but the number of viable stack options seems to highlight this particular slate. Here’s to a fun night of baseball -- let’s get after it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

There will be three or four games worth monitoring as we get closer to first pitch. At the minimum, we can probably expect a delay in a game or two at some point, and the biggest PPD threat will reside in the CLE @ BOS game.

TB @ BAL (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Afternoon storms could linger into the first few innings of this game, but things clear up as the evening progresses. A PPD isn’t the most likely outcome, but a lengthy delay/late start could be in the cards.

ATL @ PHI (7:05 ET, 8 O/U): Pretty similar forecast as the TB @ BAL game. Storms are clearing close to first pitch, but they could hang around and trigger a late start. Once they get going, there shouldn’t be any further issues. Winds blowing OUT to center at 10 mph.

CLE @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Scattered storms threaten this game for much of the evening. They could get lucky and dodge the worst of the weather but be on the lookout for a likely delay at some point with some moderate PPD potential. Winds near 10 mph blowing OUT to center.

LAA @ KC (8:10 ET, 8 O/U): Low-end chance that some light rain makes its way over the ballpark. Winds are blowing IN from center at 10-15 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.2k | vs. WAS

Tony G had his worst outing in months in his previous start but that was 12 days ago so he’s had plenty of time to rest up and move past that game. He’ll be back on his home mound today where he has been simply dominant this season: 48.0 IP, 1.13 ERA, .130 opp AVG, 0.69 WHIP, 98.5% Left On Base%. Outside of Juan Soto and Josh Bell, the Nationals don’t have any other overly dangerous/talented hitters in their lineups. They will likely be rolling out six or seven lefties but, in many aspects, Gonsolin has actually been a bit better against left-handed hitters this season. He is not the most prolific strikeout pitcher but he should offer up a strong floor. The Dodgers are overwhelming -320 favorites this evening as well.

Sean Manaea (LHP), SD | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.9k | @ DET

Manaea has not shown a ton of upside this season, but if there is a game where he could push for 30 DKFP/50 FDFP, it should be this one. Unsurprisingly, the Tigers continue to dwell at the bottom of most offensive rankings. They have lost 11 of their previous 13 games and have scored more than four runs just three times during that span while batting a league-worst .201 with a .240 wOBA and 52 wRC+. They have been noticeably better against LHPs, even during this recent offensive drought, so I wouldn’t say this is a slam dunk play. But it’s still a spot where Manaea should be able to post up some decent numbers and put himself in line for the win.

Also Consider:

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.5k | @ PHI

Aaron Ashby (LHP), MIL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.4k | vs COL

JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.7k | @ CHC

*Noah Syndergaard (RHP), LAA | DK: $7k, FD: $9k | @ KC

*DraftKings GPP SP2 option.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS

They won’t come cheap, but this is a pretty obvious spot to load up on some Dodgers bats. Paolo Espino is far from a premium starter, and many of his numbers have been inflated from pitching out of the bullpen for a large portion of the season. Since taking on a traditional starter’s role on June 12th, he has made seven starts and has accumulated a 4.88 ERA, 4.51 xFIP, 1.40 WHIP, .366 opp wOBA, and a 2.30 HR/9 Rate. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have been hotter than usual at the plate where they have a .385 wOBA, .232 ISO, and 153 wRC+ across the last two weeks.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite LAD Bats: Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, Gavin Lux | Sneaky Bat: Cody Bellinger

Cleveland Guardians vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

Note: Remember to watch out for the weather in this game.

Pivetta has had a rough time on the mound lately. He’s racked up a 13.50 ERA and 2.25 WHIP over his last three starts along with a 2.70 HR/9 Rate. To be fair, two of those games were against the Yankees but the Rays’ average offense was able to do some serious damage against him as well. Pivetta’s 47.4% HardHit% is also the highest among today’s starters. That Red Sox bullpen has also been forced to throw A LOT of innings in the last three days so they could be a bit overtaxed. The Guardians offense has been trending up and they rank 6th in the MLB with a 122 wRC+ over the last two weeks. A few of these Cleveland bats should be viable to stack up today.

BOS Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez | Sneaky Bat: Steven Kwan

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), HOU

Maybe you don’t need to get this ‘cute’ on an 11-game slate, but the A’s have been much more of a league-average offense lately as opposed to a bottom-of-the-barrel offense. Their 105 wRC+ over the last 14 days ranks them 15th in the MLB, and they’ve plated at least five runs in three of their last four games. The real kicker here is that they’ll be seeing Jake Odorizzi’s pitches for the third time in the last 15 days as he looks to make three consecutive starts against the same opponent. The edge in that scenario almost always goes to the hitters.

HOU Bullpen Rating: 6/10

Favorite OAK Bats: Sean Murphy, Chad Pinder, Ramon Laureano | Sneaky Bat: Skye Bolt

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

*OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Adam Oller (RHP), OAK

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

2B Andres Gimenez | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Hunter Renfroe | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

 

*Still listed as DTD so he may not be in the lineup tonight.

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Whit Merrifield | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), LAA

1B Josh Naylor | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

C Cal Raleigh | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX

2B/OF Gavin Lux | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Paolo Espino (RHP), WAS

OF Steven Kwan | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

2B/3B Ramon Urias | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Corey Kluber (RHP), TB

OF Chad Pinder | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), HOU

OF Yermin Mercedes | DK: $2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C Cal Raleigh | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX

I’m rolling with another off-beat home run call today, and if it doesn’t work out, I’ll go back to the Aaron Judge’s and Austin Riley’s of the world tomorrow. Raleigh is a bit of a boom-or-bust hitter but he barrels one up, it’s got a great chance of leaving the ballpark. He has a lofty .260 ISO and 20.4% HR/FB Rate against RHPs this season, and he’s averaging a home run every 14 at-bats against righties as well. Glenn Otto’s 9.9% Barrel% is the third-highest among today’s starters, and the Rangers bullpen has been handing out their fair share of homers as well, with a 1.84 HR/9 Rate in the last two weeks (third-highest in MLB).

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Freddie Freeman OVER 0.5 Runs | -125 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

This prop hit for us on Friday so, while we aren’t getting even money odds on it, it’s still a strong bet at -125. There is not much analysis needed here. Freeman is swinging a stick of dynamite at the plate right now and the Dodger hitters around him have been coming through as well. He has scored at least one run in nine of his last ten games so, yeah, I’ll happily hop back on this prop bet once again.

Tony Gonsolin to Record the Win: Yes | -135 (DraftKings) | 2.5 Units

I’m honestly surprised that the odds on this prop aren’t closer to -200 or so. While the “win” stat for pitchers is a finicky thing, Gonsolin is 11-0 on the season (17 starts) and in eight home starts, he boasts a 7-0 record. The Dodgers are massive -320 moneyline favorites in this game, and the likelihood that Gonsolin pitches at least five innings while possessing the lead feels extremely likely today. As long as the Dodgers bullpen does not blow this theoretical lead, look for Gonsolin to pick up his 12th win of the season tonight.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Best of luck out there today, everyone!