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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Another big MLB Tuesday hits the schedule with a dozen games on tap for this evening’s main slate action! We have a bunch to get into with this slate so we’ll keep it very concise with the intro and dive right in. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• COL @ WAS (7:05 ET): Might see some storms clearing around first pitch which could trigger a late start but things should work out fine here.

• NYM @ NYY (7:05 ET): Similar to WAS. Chance for a late start with some rain clearing early but chances are they won’t run into any significant issues.

• ATL @ BOS (7:10 ET): It looks like this will be the main game to track today. A fairly sizable storm system is making its way toward Boston as we speak and the timing of its arrival may not be ideal. Perhaps the forecast will clear up in a few hours but, as of now, there is some definite PPD risk for this game.

• SEA @ MIN (7:40 ET): Winds near 10 mph blowing IN from right.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Blake Snell (LHP), SD | DK: $10k, FD: $11k | vs. PIT

Snell’s torrid stretch of electric pitching performances, which began way back in late May, came to a halt in his last outing but there’s no real reason to believe he can’t bounce right back tonight. Over his last 11 starts, Snell has come away with a 0.71 ERA, 2.71 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, .167 opp AVG, and 37.8% kRate while limiting the opposition to a low 22.3% HardContact%. His one bugaboo has been a high walk rate (12.7% BB% L11Gms) and that issue reared its ugly head in that last start against Toronto where he walked seven batters over 5.0 IP. Fortunately, he’s at home where many of his metrics have improved this season, including a lower walk rate, WHIP, and a higher kRate. He’s also averaging +24.0% more FPPG at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park.

The Pirates beat up a chalky Yu Darvish on yesterday’s slate to the tune of seven runs on eight hits and three walks across his 4.1 IP. Darvish wasn’t the first pitcher to be surprised by this typically dormant Pirates offense, and he won’t be the last. That said, we should still have ample confidence in Snell today. Over the last month, the Pirates rank 24th with an 83 wRC+ versus LHPs and their massive 28.2% kRate has been the second-highest in baseball during that stretch. They’ve also had a below-average 7.5% walk rate versus lefties in that same span, which bodes well for Snell and his tendency to walk batters. The Padres (-280 ML odds) are once again the heaviest favorites on the slate and expectations should remain sky-high for Snell in this spot.

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.3k | vs. CIN

Burnes came out of the All-Star Break in top form and flashed the sort of upside that won him the 2021 NL Cy Young Award. In his last two starts (@ CIN, @ PHI), Burnes threw 14.0 innings of shutout baseball while allowing just four hits and three walks (0.50 WHIP, .087 opp AVG) and fanning a ridiculous 23 batters, leading to a monstrous 45.1% kRate. It’s tough to put a ton of stock into a two-game sample size, but Burnes was beginning to round into form ahead of the ASB as well.

Burnes will be facing the Reds for the third time in his last four starts, which is a bit of a concern, but he showed the ability to rack up a huge strikeout total with 13 Ks against the Reds back on July 14th. And, if we’re being honest, the Reds’ offense has cooled off quite a bit lately. Against RHPs over the last two weeks (308 plate appearances), Cincy has hit .224 (ranks 23rd) with a .303 wOBA (21st), 81 wRC+ (26th), and a 26.0% kRate (8th highest). It’s still a dangerous lineup filled with plenty of young sluggers but we’ll be looking to trust the raw talent of Burnes in this match-up.

Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.3k | @ CWS

There are a few decent value pitchers to choose from on this slate and, as usual, these low-end SP plays are typically geared more toward DraftKings players to utilize as an SP2 option while opening up more salary for bigger bats (or a high-end SP1). Hendricks may not possess enormous upside, but he’s a guy you can feel fairly comfortable rolling out at SP2 on DK in a spot against a bad White Sox offense, where he shouldn’t burn you. Hendricks has been solid on the road this season where he has pitched to a low 2.53 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and .186 opp AVG while averaging 16.6 DKFP/gm. His 16.1% kRate isn’t going to raise any eyebrows but it’s worth noting that he has put up a more respectable 21.1% kRate in the month of July, notching five strikeouts in each of his last four starts. Hendricks also leads all MLB starters with an average exit velocity of 85.7 mph (min. 60 IP).

The White Sox have been a bottom-10 offense throughout the season and they’ve been really struggling as of late. The White Sox have lost 11 of their last 15 games dating back to July 4th. Against RHPs in that 15-game span, they have ranked dead last with a .274 wOBA, last with a .123 ISO, and 29th with a 71 wRC+ to go along with a high 25.9% kRate (7th highest). Outside of Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez, there just aren’t very many dangerous hitters in this White Sox lineup. While it’s not a sexy play, we can look for Hendricks to secure 15-20 DKFP in this match-up, which is perfectly acceptable, especially for cash games, given his $6,800 salary.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10k | vs. SEA

Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.8k | @ MIL

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.9k | @ MIN

Alex Cobb (RHP), SF | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.9k | vs. OAK

Aaron Civale (RHP), CLE | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9.3k | vs. KC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Chicago Cubs vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

+ Cubs: 5.0 implied runs (ranks T-3rd on the slate).

+ Kopech is a bit of an enigma; he either pitches a great game or gets completely shelled -- lately, it’s been more of the latter -- over his last five games, Kopech owns a 5.30 ERA, 7.65 xFIP (!), 2.20 WHIP, .416 opp wOBA, 1.90 HR/9 Rate, and 18.1% kRate.

+ The Cubs have been extremely hot versus RHPs over the last two weeks, leading all of baseball with the following metrics: .333 AVG, .953 OPS, .409 wOBA, and 160 wRC+

+ The White Sox have had a bottom-10 bullpen this season.

+ Guaranteed Rate Field has ranked as the #7 home run park this season.

- Kopech has been better at home (+55.0% more FPPG) and, on the season, he has posted a strong 25.3% kRate.

Favorite CHC Bats: Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki

Bargain Bat: Mike Tauchman

Houston Astros vs. Yerry Rodriguez (PO, RHP)/Cody Bradford (PLR, RHP)

+ Astros: 4.9 implied runs (ranks T-7th on the slate).

+ Rodriguez is slated as the Rangers’ opener and Bradford is currently expected to eat up a few innings as the bulk reliever -- neither guy has been particularly effective this season; Rodriguez owns a 5.06 ERA and 4.19 xFIP while Bradford has posted a 4.78 ERA and 4.80 xFIP.

+ The Rangers’ bullpen has put up a poor 6.38 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 1.67 HR/9 over the last month.

+ The Astros should mostly face RHPs today and they’ve put up a strong 120 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks along with an MLB-leading 42.5% HardContact%.

+ This looks to be a low-owned stack with all Astros hitters possessing a 5% pOwn% or lower.

- While both guys should be activated relatively soon, the Astros continue to play without two of their best hitters with Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve still on the IL.

- The Astros have not been as strong offensively at home where they’ve averaged 4.29 runs/gm (vs. 5.08 runs/gm away).

Favorite HOU Bats: Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, Alex Bregman

Bargain Bat: Jose Abreu

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Dodgers (LHBs Preferred) vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

+ I’m not sure if they’ll ultimately be super low-owned, but currently, 8-of-9 projected Dodgers hitters have a 3% pOwn% or lower.

+ Chris Bassitt has been much worse on the road (-58.6% less FPPG) where he has put up a poor 5.81 ERA, 4.72 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, .304 opp AVG, .389 opp wOBA, and 2.35 HR/9 Rate.

+ Bassitt has some really awful splits against LHBs on the road: .360 opp AVG, .480 opp wOBA, 1.95 WHIP, and 4.01 HR/9 Rate (!) -- Dodgers LHBs can be given an added bump when constructing any LAD stacks.

+ The Dodgers have been smashing RHPs over the L2Weeks: .293 AVG (2nd), .909 OPS (2nd), .391 wOBA (2nd), .219 ISO (6th), and 149 wRC+ (2nd).

+ The Dodgers have been excellent at home, averaging 5.54 runs/gm.

+ Dodgers: 4.9 implied runs (ranks T-7th on the slate).

- The Blue Jays have had a top-10 bullpen this season.

Favorite LAD Bats: Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Mookie Betts

Bargain Bat: David Peralta

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $6.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), STL

3B Nolan Arenado, STL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Chas McCormick, HOU | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Yerry Rodriguez/Cody Bradford (RHPs), TEX

OF Lane Thomas, WAS | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

1B/OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

1B/2B Justin Turner, BOS | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

2B/SS Ha-Seong Kim, SD | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), PIT

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Josh Naylor, CLE | DK: $4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

1B Nathaniel Lowe, TEX | DK; $3.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. JP France (RHP), HOU

OF Steven Kwan, CLE | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

3B Jeimer Candelario, WAS | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

SS CJ Abrams, WAS | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

1B WIlmer Flores, SF | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

2B Edouard Julien, MIN | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

OF Travis Jankowski, TEX | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. JP France (RHP), HOU

1B Alex Kiriloff, MIN | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

3B Miles Mastrobuoni, CHC | DK: $2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Cody Bellinger MORE than 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Luis Matos LESS than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!