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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Welcome back for another week of MLB DFS action! We’ll get things going with a mid-sized eight-game main slate. This slate may not have a huge supply of top-level offenses or pitchers to choose from, but it’s still a solid-looking set of games and match-ups. Next Tuesday’s trade deadline looms large, and we can certainly expect quite a bit of movement over the next eight days so here’s a reminder to just stay on top of the latest moves around the league! Here’s a good site to track the most recent MLB trades.

Alright, let’s move on to the business at hand with this eight-game slate. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• COL @ WAS (7:05 ET): Chance for some mid/late-inning rain but, currently, it’s not a likely outcome.

• SEA @ MIN (7:40 ET): Low-end chance of some late-inning storms. Probably won’t be an issue.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yu Darvish (RHP), SD | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10k | vs. PIT

Darvish sets up as the most popular SP on the slate, leading both DraftKings and FanDuel in projected ownership, but it’s fairly easy to see why that is. Darvish enters tonight’s game on the heels of a couple of impressive road wins against the Blue Jays and Phillies where he combined for 12.0 IP of one-run ball and 16 strikeouts. He’ll now return home to the pitcher-friendly Petco Park where his ERA has been over a run lower than on the road and his kRate has jumped to a sturdy 28.0% (vs. 24.1% kRate on the road).

Like any MLB offense, the Pirates can put up some runs here and there, and they’ve even plated 5+ runs in three of their last four games. However, overall, they’ve been a bottom-five offense against RHPs over the last month. In that stretch, they rank 26th with a .289 wOBA and 26th with a 79 wRC+. Darvish has a loaded arsenal of pitches he can throw, but his four primary pitches this season have been sweepers (20.1%), sliders (17.9%), 4-seamers (16.5%), and sinkers (16.2%). Against that four-pitch mix, the Pirates rank 27th with a .304 wOBA and only six other teams have had a higher kRate (23.5%). The Padres (-270 ML odds) are the heaviest favorites on the slate and, predictably, the Pirates check in with a slate-low 3.6 implied runs.

Kenta Maeda (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.4k | vs. SEA

If you’re hunting for strikeout upside, Maeda might be one man to target today. Over his last five starts, Maeda has procured a huge 35.3% kRate. Maeda has also posted a 2.73 ERA, 3.11 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, and .198 opp AVG in those previous five starts.

While playing against the same team in back-to-back starts can tack on a bit of added risk to any pitcher, we can still feel good about Maeda’s chances against this Mariners offense. Maeda’s primary three-pitch mix has consisted of sliders (34.3%), split fingers (32.9%), and 4-seamers (22.7%). The Mariners’ 28.2% kRate against that pitch mix (from RHPs) is the second highest in baseball and their propensity to strike out versus Maeda’s primary pitches was on full display last Wednesday when they K’d nine times across Maeda’s 6.1 IP. The one glaring concern for Maeda today will be centered on his pitch count, which has maxed out at 87 pitches in nine starts this season and he only threw 80 pitches in that last game against Seattle. But, as long as he doesn’t have a particularly rough inning, he should be able to work through five or six innings while racking up 7-to-9 Ks and at least give himself a chance to qualify for a win.

Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7k | vs. STL

The low-priced pitching is particularly gross today so there’s a big “buyers beware” sticker attached to anyone priced below the aforementioned Maeda. With that said Ryne Nelson has been in decent form as of late, with a very solid 1.03 WHIP over his last five outings to go along with a respectable 3.60 ERA. His most recent start against the Braves, arguably the best offense in baseball, was perhaps the most encouraging -- in that game, Nelson covered seven full innings, allowing just three hits, two runs, and five strikeouts. Five or six strikeouts is probably Nelson’s K ceiling given his low 16.1% kRate, but if he can continue to eat up innings (7.0+ IP in three of his last five starts) and put himself in line to win, he can pay off these low-end salaries.

The match-up with the Cardinals is an interesting one. On one hand, the Cardinals have really struggled on the road where they have averaged 4.17 runs/gm (7th fewest) as opposed to 5.37 runs/gm at home. On the other hand, Ryne Nelson is heavily reliant on the 4-seam fastball (54.6% of his pitches this season) and the Cardinals have done well versus RHP 4-seamers, ranking 3rd with a .378 xwOBA. But, as mentioned, Nelson did just have an excellent performance against the Braves, who rate out even better offensively than the Cardinals versus RHP 4-seamers. The D-Backs are moderate -141 ML favorites today so we’ll be hoping for a quality start plus a win for Nelson today. But this is far from a high-confidence play.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.8k | @ MIN

Logan Allen (LHP), CLE | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.4k | vs. KC

Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.6k | vs. COL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

+ D-Backs: 5.4 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Wainwright has not pitched since July 4th while dealing with a shoulder injury and reportedly will be limited to around 65 pitches today -- before the injury, Waino was in very poor form; over his last five starts has posted a 10.35 ERA, 6.47 xFIP, 2.40 WHIP, .415 opp AVG, .496 opp wOBA, and 3.20 HR/9 with just an 8.7% kRate… ugly stuff.

+ D-Backs have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs over the L2Weeks: .262 AVG, .814 OPS, .350 wOBA, .217 ISO, and 118 wRC+.

-/+ With a limited PC on Wainwright, STL is likely to deploy more bullpen usage than usual -- over the last month, the Cardinals have had a middling bullpen that has posted a 4.97 ERA, 4.32 xFIP, and 1.55 WHIP.

- Despite Chase Field being a solid hitter’s park (#11 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season), the D-Backs have averaged nearly a run less per game at home (4.50 runs/gm) than on the road (5.40 runs/gm)

Favorite ARI Bats: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Christian Walker

Bargain Bat: Jake McCarthy

Washington Nationals vs. Jake Bird (PO, RHP) & Karl Kauffman (PLR, RHP), COL

+ Nationals: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ Kauffman will be the main pitcher we focus on here since he is penciled in as the probably long reliever -- in 17.2 IP in the big leagues this season, he has put up an awful 10.19 ERA, 6.52 xFIP, 2.04 WHIP, .361 opp AVG, 1.53 HR/9, and 9.5% kRate.

+ The Nationals have been a productive offense over their last 10 games dating back to July 8th -- in that stretch, they’re hitting .287 (ranks 2nd) with a .832 OPS (4th), .356 wOBA (4th), .206 ISO (7th), and 123 wRC+ (5th).

+ The Rockies have had a bottom-10 bullpen this season, even when sectioning off their away splits outside of Coors Field.

+ This is a highly affordable stack with just one hitter (Lane Thomas) costing more than $4k DK/$3.2k FD.

- Washington has been one of the worst home offenses, averaging just 3.92 runs/gm (4th lowest).

- The Nationals have hit the 3rd fewest HRs (136) in the MLB this season.

Favorite WAS Bats: Lane Thomas, CJ Abrams, Jeimer Candelario

Bargain Bat: Dominic Smith

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

+ 7-of-9 projected Blue Jay hitters have a <10% pOwn%.

+ Grove has had a couple of solid recent outings against the Angels and Orioles, but on the season, he’s still been a very underwhelming starter: 6.40 ERA, 4.41 xFIP, 1.54 WHIP, and .372 opp wOBA.

+ The Blue Jays have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs over the last month.

+ The Blue Jays have been better on the road (4.70 runs/gm) than at home (4.23 runs/gm).

+ Against RHPs on the road, the Blue Jays rank 3rd in both wOBA (.331) and wRC+ (116) this season.

+ Blue Jays: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-6th on the slate).

- The Dodgers bullpen continues to be a strength -- over the last month, they own an MLB-best 2.10 ERA to go along with a 1.13 WHIP and a microscopic 0.19 HR/9 Rate.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Whit Merrifield

Bargain Bat: Brandon Belt

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

3B Nolan Arenado, STL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

2B Marcus Semien, TEX | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Brandon Bielak (RHP), HOU

2B/SS Matt McLain, CIN | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

OF Juan Soto, SD | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), PIT

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

OF Lane Thomas, WAS | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jake Bird/Karl Kauffman (RHPs), COL

1B Josh Naylor, CLE | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Nathaniel Lowe, TEX | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Brandon Bielak (RHP), HOU

SS CJ Abrams, WAS | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Jake Bird/Karl Kauffman (RHPs), COL

2B Edouard Julien, MIN | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

1B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

OF Jake McCarthy, ARI | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

1B Brandon Belt, TOR | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

OF Will Benson, CIN | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

OF Sal Frelick, MIL | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

OF Travis Jankowski, TEX | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Brandon Bielak (RHP), HOU

1B Alex Kiriloff, MIN | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

C/OF David Fry, CLE | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), KC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Sal Frelick LESS than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts

Juan Soto MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!