Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 7/22 | Let the Second Half Mayhem Begin!

July 22, 2022

The first big day of the second half has arrived! Find out what DFS plays and prob bets you should consider on today's massive slate!

Pennd By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Aaaaand we’re back! A few games were on the docket yesterday but today represents the first big day of baseball following the MLB All-Star break. The second half of the season will kick off with a beautiful 13-game Friday slate so it’s time to strap in and get right back onto that MLB grind! It’s a jam-packed evening ahead so let’s get right down to business!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

There are no postponement threats on the board today. What is on the board? A LOT of hot and humid conditions, which of course is set up to benefit the hitters.

NYY @ BAL (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): Around 90 degrees all game, humid, and winds blowing OUT to center at 5-10 mph.

CHC @ PHI (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): Low 90s, humid, and 10 mph winds blowing OUT to right.

TOR @ BOS (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Temps in the mid-to-upper 80s with light winds blowing OUT to center.

SD @ NYM (7:10 ET, 7 O/U): Warm and humid, winds near 10 mph blowing OUT to center. Starting to see the pattern today?

LAA @ ATL (7:20 ET, 7 O/U): Not overly hot here (low 80s) but still humid with light winds blowing IN from right. The usual ATL “low-end chance for a stray pop-up storm” places some slight late start/delay risk on the table.

TB @ KC (8:10 ET, 9 O/U): Hottest game location on the board today with temps pushing close to 100 degrees at first pitch. Humid with 10+ mph winds blowing OUT to left as well.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.3k | vs. COL

Thanks to the ASB hiatus, there are quite a few teams who have turned over to the top of their pitching rotation today. The Brewers look to roll out their staff ace with Burnes taking the mound at home against the Rockies. Facing the Rockies outside of Coors Field is always a nice plus. Against RHPs on the road this season, the Rockies are hitting a mere .213 with a .264 wOBA, .097 ISO, and 67 wRC+ -- only the Detroit Tigers rank worse in each of those offensive categories. Burnes boasts a slate-best 2.14 ERA and 16.4% Swinging Strike Rate along with his elite overall 32.6% kRate. The Brewers (-280) are also, by far, the heaviest favorites of the day. If you’re fine with the chalky ownership (40% pOwn on DK), then Burnes should be on your radar with his 30+ DKFP/50+ FDFP upside today.

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $9k, FD: $11k | @ ATL

How DraftKings has failed to assign a five-digit salary to Shohei Ohtani yet this season (when he pitches) is beyond me. The phenom has four straight starts on the mound that have resulted in 35+ DKFP performances and he’s rocking a 0.28 ERA and 42.3% kRate over his last five starts… insane. Sure, the Braves have a dangerous offense but they also offer up plenty of strikeout opportunities. Their 25.0% kRate vs. RHPs this season is the third-highest in the majors and they have a 30% kRate against sliders, which Ohtani throws on a third of his pitches. Outside of what he can do for himself at the plate, he’s not likely to receive much run support, especially with Mike Trout (ribs) guaranteed to miss at least one more game. But the freakish strikeout potential is really what we’re after with Ohtani today.

Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.7k | @ PIT

Garrett will primarily be a match-up-based value play today but he did recently shut down this Pirates offense when he took the hill against them eight days ago. In that game, Garrett recorded a season-high in strikeouts (11) and pitches thrown (102) across six scoreless two-hit innings. He’s not overly likely to replicate that same sort of performance, which earned him a whopping 31.9 DKFP/55 FDFP, but at these DFS salaries, he doesn’t exactly need to dominate. However, 20+ DKFP/35+ FDFP kinda day is certainly in the cards for Garrett. The Pirates have an MLB-high 29.5% kRate vs. LHPs over the last month and Garrett has provided a slightly above average 22.9% kRate on the season alongside some promising statcast numbers (low flyball rate, low HardContact%, low exit velocity). He’s not a bad value option if you’re looking to save some salary for the big bats.

Also Consider:

Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.5k | vs. SD

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.8k | vs. LAA

Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.1k | vs. CLE

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Senzatela (shoulder) is coming off of the IL to start this game after not pitching in an MLB game in three weeks. He already showed his fair share of struggles, both in and away from Coors Field, so I don’t see any reason to avoid stacking against this potentially rusty right-hander coming off of an injury. Senzatela has put up a 6.86 ERA on the road this season and he is last among today’s pitchers with an awful 1.80 WHIP. The Brewers are not the most prolific offense but considering Senzatela is allowing nearly two base runners per inning and the Rockies bullpen is a bottom 10 unit (even outside of Coors), this is a spot where their bats could come alive.

COL Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite MIL Bats: Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, Christian Yelich | Sneaky Bat: “THE GREAT” Hunter Renfroe

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Corbin hasn’t been great, in general, this season, but he’s been downright bad when pitching on the road. In 41.1 IP in away games this season, Corbin has racked up a 7.19 ERA next to a 1.86 WHIP, .349 opp AVG, and .391 opp wOBA with only a 17% kRate. With all the media attention and distractions being directed at Juan Soto and where his next destination may be, you have to wonder just how low the Nationals overall team morale is following a stretch of baseball where they’ve lost 15 of their last 17 games. The D-Backs are far from a reliable team to stack up but this is a match-up they could exploit at home this evening.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite ARI Bats: Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Carson Kelly | Sneaky Bat: Jordan Luplow

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU

When you’ve won 14 games in a row, as the Mariners have done, the last thing you want to do is have several days off and potentially lose some of that momentum. But we’ll see if the Mariners can carry over their hot streak into their first game following the All-Star break. One thing is certain -- they’ve had Jose Urquidy’s number this season. Urquidy has faced the Mariners three times in 2022 and has lasted a combined 13.0 innings while getting rocked for a 10.38 ERA, 6.55 xFIP, 2.62 WHIP, .415 AVG, and .491 wOBA. Urquidy has been a rock=solid starter when pitching at home (2.63 ERA, 3.88 xFIP), but he has faltered to a 5.20 ERA and 4.91 xFIP when pitching on the road. The Mariners may also be able to take advantage of an Astros bullpen that saw quite a bit of action in yesterday’s doubleheader against the Yankees where they pitched eight full innings on the day.

HOU Bullpen Rating: 8/10 (but could be a bit overtaxed)

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Ty France, Eugenio Suarez | Sneaky Bat: Cal Raleigh

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU

2B Marcus Semien | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK

2B/OF Ketel Marte | DK: $5k, FD: $3k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

SS Willy Adames | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

2B Brandon Lowe | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

OF Ramon Laureano | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Spencer Howard (RHP), TEX

C Adley Rutschman | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

OF Hunter Renfroe | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

3B Yoan Moncada | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

1B Christian Walker | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Aaron Hicks | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

C Carson Kelly | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Jordan Luplow | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Leody Tavares | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK

1B Vinnie Pasquantino | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C Adley Rutschman | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

This is a bit of a sleeper home run call but I like the potential. Rutschman is beginning to show why he was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 MLB draft. He’s been contributing some valuable hits, runs, and RBIs and he was a significant factor in Baltimore’s recent 10-game win streak. He is accounting for a .246 ISO against RHPs this season and all five of his HRs have come off of RHPs as well. Jameson Taillon is a quality starter but he has struggled when pitching on the road against lefty bats: 4.62 xFIP, .374 wOBA, 2.50 HR/9, 20% HR/FB Rate. The switch-hitting Rutschman will bat from the left side against Taillon today and will have two or three shots to go yard against Taillon in this game. Some more factors working in Rutschman’s favor: he’s slotted in at the two-hole in today’s lineup, the Yankees bullpen may be a bit overtaxed after pitching 7.1 innings across yesterday’s doubleheader, and there is some great hitting weather expected at Camden Yards this evening where it will be around 90 degrees all game with some humidity and 5-10 mph winds blowing out to center.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Shohei Ohtani OVER 8.5 Strikeouts | +116 (FanDuel) | 2.0 Units

Over his last four starts on the mound, Ohtani has thrown at least 100 pitches and punched out 13, 11, 10, and 12 would-be hitters resulting in a downright disgusting 46% kRate in that stretch. The Braves offense has accounted for the second-most strikeouts in the MLB this season, and they have a 25% overall kRate vs. RHPs (third-highest). Today’s Braves lineup features six guys who have at least a 24.6% kRate vs. RHPs this season so strikeout opportunities will present themselves for Ohtani throughout all areas of this batting order. Nine strikeouts should be very attainable here so the plus-money odds on this prop stick out as some nice value.

Freddie Freeman OVER 0.5 Runs | +100 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Freeman is on a helluva hot streak right now, with 17 hits across his last seven games. He has scored at least one run in six of those previous seven games. It certainly helps that he has cashed this prop singlehandedly four times, thanks to four games with a home run. But no matter how he manages to come around to cross the plate, he’s getting it done, whether it be via a homer or one of his teammates batting him in. I’ll be happy to throw some scratch on this prop at even money.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!