Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s an MLB Friday frenzy with 11 games set up on the main slate ticket! I believe we’ll be looking at a fairly balanced slate ahead with a nice equilibrium between pitching and offense. We’ll keep it short and sweet on the intro and jump right into the action. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• KC @ NYY (7:05 ET): Decent chance things play out fine here but it does appear as if rain chances will spike later in the evening, around 9 ET.

• NYM @ BOS (7:05 ET): Worth monitoring the forecast here as rain looks to be in the general area throughout the scheduled gametime window. As of now, we’re looking at moderate delay risk and a PPD cannot be 100% ruled out. They could also end up playing with no issues or play through some lighter rain. We’ll just have to see what the radar looks like closer to first pitch.

• PHI @ CLE (7:10 ET): Winds IN from left/center around 10+ mph.

• CWS @ MIN (8:10 ET): Some spotty showers in the area so we’ll pin this game with low-end delay potential if one happens to make its way over the ballpark.

• PIT @ LAA (9:38 ET): 10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.2k | @ OAK

It’s going to be tough to ignore Framber Valdez today, who remains the current odds-on favorite for the AL Cy Young Award by most sportsbooks. Valdez heads into his 19th start of the season with a slate-best 2.76 ERA and 2.89 xFIP. Elsewhere, he’s putting up a stout 1.07 WHIP to go with a 27.4% kRate and, as usual, he’s one of the best ground ball inducers in the MLB (54.6% GB%).

Valdez specializes in a unique pitch mix that heavily features the sinker (48.2%) and curveball (24.7%). Against those two pitch types (from LHPs), the Oakland A’s are hitting just .221 with a 28th-ranked .272 wOBA. That’s pretty on par with how they’ve been hitting against LHPs over the last month: .214 AVG, .284 wOBA, 84 wRC+, and 25.5% kRate. Generally speaking, I don’t believe there’s much need for analysis here since you have one of the best starting pitchers in the MLB going up against a perpetually bottom-five A’s offense. Valdez posted a CGSO against the A’s earlier this season to give you an idea of his ceiling in this match-up. To no real surprise, the Astros will step into this slate as the heaviest favorites (-245 ML odds), and the A’s own a slate-low 3.1 implied run total.

Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.2k | @ MIN

Lynn has been one of the unluckiest starting pitchers in the MLB when we compare his ugly 6.06 ERA to a much, much better 3.83 xFIP and 3.80 SIERA. Despite a fairly tough schedule recently, Lynn has displayed a decent floor with a tremendous ceiling. Over his previous five starts, Lynn has posted a 4.35 ERA, 2.99 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP, .214 opp AVG, and a massive 36.7% kRate.

It’s an intriguing spot for Lynn against the Twins. On one hand, Minnesota has been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs over the last month, ranking 8th in both wOBA (.337) and wRC+ (117). However, this is a team that does a ton of striking out as well with a massive 28.5% kRate (highest in MLB) against RHPs in that same span. Their 27.4% kRate vs. RHPs on the season is also an MLB-high so it’s not like this is a short-term trend for them. Lynn faced this Twins lineup back in April and posted a quality start (6.0 IP, 3 ER) to go along with 10 strikeouts on 98 pitches and fantasy scores of 23.3 DKFP/43 FDFP. If Lynn can avoid giving up multiple home runs, which has been a primary detriment to his results this season, then he should be in line for a strong outing while carrying some legitimate double-digit K upside.

Alec Marsh (RHP), KC | DK: $5k, FD: $7.2k | @ NYY

The low-end of pitcher pricing actually has a few names worth considering today -- guys like Clarke Schmidt, Johan Oviedo, and Alex Wood. I’d also keep Alec Marsh on the list of “punt-worthy” SP options today (particularly as an SP2 on DraftKings). Schmidt looks to be the most popular value SP on DraftKings with a 32% pOwn%. While I’m not against that play at all, I believe Alec Marsh makes for a very worthy GPP pivot at much lower ownership (8% pOwn%). Marsh only has three MLB starts under his belt but, most recently, he displayed the colossal strikeout potential that he was showing off in the minor leagues with an 11 K performance against the Rays last Saturday. While walks have been an issue (12.1% BB%), Marsh has now accumulated a tremendous 31.8% kRate over his 14.2 big league innings.

The Yankees are not a super-heavy strikeout team, given their 21.3% kRate vs. RHPs over the last month. However, in that same span, the Rays have a not-significantly-higher 23.5% kRate and Marsh was able to notch those 11 Ks against them. Offensively, the Yankees have also been a bottom-five team against RHPs over the last month, ranking dead last in AVG (.217), 27th in OPS (.646), 27th in wOBA (.287), and 26th in wRC+ (82). Despite their offensive woes, there are many ways for things to go south for Marsh here but there’s enough upside to warrant the risk.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $11k, FD: $10.2k | vs. PIT

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10k | vs. CWS

Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY | DK: $6.2k, FD: $8k | @ KC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Ben Lively (RHP), CIN

+ D-Backs: 5.2 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ Lively has been in some poor form as of late -- over his last six starts he’s posting a 4.91 ERA, 4.82 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, .350 opp wOBA, and 2.20 HR/9.

+ Lively L30Days: 92.3 mph average exit velo (bottom 5th percentile) & 194.5 ft. average distance (bottom 15th percentile).

+ Lively throws a primary pitch mix of 4-seamer (33.3%), slider (23.7%), and sinker (20.4%) -- against that pitch mix (vs. RHPs), the D-Backs have an MLB-leading .274 AVG and rank 3rd with a .354 wOBA.

+ It’s a short sample size, but the D-Backs have seemingly busted out of their slump over their last four games, averaging 7.8 runs/gm with an .812 OPS, .353 wOBA, .218 ISO, and 120 wRC+.

+ The D-Backs have been the #2 road offense this season, averaging 5.51 runs/gm, and GABP is one of the best hitter’s ballparks (and the #2 HR ballpark this season).

+ Reds have an MLB-worst 5.27 xFIP over the last month.

- It’s still tough to completely discount the D-Backs’ offensive struggles over the last month where they rank 24th with a 91 wRC+.

Favorite ARI Bats: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Christian Walker

Bargain Bat: Jake McCarthy

Texas Rangers vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

+ Rangers: 5.1 implied runs (T-3rd on the slate).

+ Gonsolin has been fairly erratic over his last five starts: 6.92 ERA, 4.86 xFIP, .347 opp wOBA, and 1.70 HR/9.

+ Gonsolin has allowed nine barreled balls over the L30Days (bottom 5th percentile).

+ Rangers have been a top-five offense vs. RHPs L30Days, ranking 3rd in AVG (.274), 3rd in OPS (.816), 4th in wOBA (.349), 4th in ISO (.203), and 3rd in wRC+ (124).

+ Rangers have been the #1 home offense, averaging 6.22 runs/gm, and Globe Life Field has been the #4 hitter’s park this season (#1 HR ballpark).

+ Rangers should be a fairly low-owned stack with no hitter projected higher than 6% ownership.

-/+ Gonsolin has been stout in away games, with a 2.94 ERA on the road this season, however, his 5.37 xFIP in the road suggests significant regression is due.

- Dodgers have had a top-10 bullpen over the last month: 2.03 ERA, 3.97 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP, and an extremely low 0.10 HR/9 Rate.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim

Bargain Bat: Travis Jankowski

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Washington Nationals vs. Alex Wood (LHP), SF

+ All nine Nats hitters have an 8% pOwn% or lower.

+ Alex Wood is another pitcher who heads in on the heels of some rough form -- Wood’s last five games have resulted in a 5.30 ERA, 5.82 xFIP, 1.66 WHIP, and .362 opp wOBA.

+ Despite owning one of the worst records in baseball, the Nats have been sneaky-good against LHPs this season, ranking 4th in AVG (.278), 7th in OPS (.774), 7th in wOBA (.335), and 10th in wRC+ (109).

+ Nats have been even better vs. LHPs over the last month: .276 AVG, .846 OPS, .361 wOBA, .232 ISO, and 126 wRC+.

+ Wood has allowed a .374 wOBA to RHBs this season -- Nats have seven RHBs in their confirmed lineup.

+ Plenty of cheap stack possibilities with this affordable Nats lineup.

-/+ Wood has managed to procure a 2.96 ERA in road games, despite a poor 1.61 WHIP and 5.11 xFIP.

-/+ Nationals: 4.4 implied runs (ranks T-11th on the slate).

- Giants have had a top-five bullpen this season.

Favorite WAS Bats: Lane Thomas, Jeimer Candelario, Joey Meneses

Bargain Bat: Stone Garrett

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

2B Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Ben Lively (RHP), CIN

2B/SS Matt McLain, CIN | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), ATL

OF Lane Thomas, WAS | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), SF

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

OF Mickey Moniak, LAA | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

C Francisco Alvarez, NYM | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

3B Jeimer Candelario, WAS | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), SF

OF Chas McCormick, HOU | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

OF Michael Conforto, SF | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

2B Edouard Julien, MIN | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS

OF Jake McCarthy, ARI | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ben Lively (RHP), CIN

1B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT

OF Stone Garrett, WAS | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), SF

1B Alex Kiriloff, MIN | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Matt Olson MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Ronald Acuña Jr. + Corbin Carroll MORE than 0.5 Stolen Bases*

*This is a combo prop so just one of Acuña or Carroll needs to log a stolen base.

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!