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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Welcome to the Tuesday madness as 14 games land on the MLB main slate docket. I must say, the pitching selection we have to pick through today is not great, particularly when it comes to a 14-gamer. Baseball does have a knack for providing the unexpected, but it would certainly seem as if offense will be the focal point today. Strap in because this should be a wild one! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CLE @ PIT (7:05 ET): It’s a cloudy evening in PIT so there will be some chance for rain, but not a major threat or concern.

• CWS @ NYM (7:10 ET): Things should work out fine here, but some rain is expected in the general area. Currently, not expected to make its way over the ballpark… during the game, at least.

• ARI @ ATL (7:20 ET): It’s another one of those “chance for some summertime pop-up storms” in ATL. There’s a good chance they’ll play without issue but it’ll be best to check the pre-game radar in case any storms begin to pop off upstream. It’ll be a scorcher with temps in the mid-90s at first pitch.

• MIA @ STL (7:45 ET): Looks like they’ll be getting this game in between a couple of batches of rain. The timing should work out well so we shouldn’t have to sweat it too much here.

• WAS @ CHC (8:05 ET): 5-10 mph winds IN from right/center.

• DET @ KC (8:10 ET): Winds IN from center around 15 mph. Nice boost for pitchers.

• HOU @ COL (8:40 ET): Some delay risk with rain in the area. A PPD seems unlikely.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.6k | @ TOR

If you’ve already done at least a quick scan of this slate, you’re aware of how lackluster the starting pitcher pool is, even with 28 teams in play. If there’s ever a massive slate to spend down at pitcher, it’s probably this one. With that said, Musgrove is going to make some sense out of the upper portion of DFS pricing today. He has secured at least 27.3 DKFP/49 FDFP in three of his last four starts and, in that stretch, he has procured a stellar 1.38 ERA, 2.83 xFIP, 0.81 WHIP, .252 opp wOBA, and 32.0% kRate while allowing a low 26.7% HardContact%.

Musgrove won’t be facing a pushover offense today with the Toronto Blue Jays waiting on deck. But it’s also not as if Toronto has been crushing it at the plate either. They rank mid-pack in most key offensive metrics against RHPs over the last month (14th in OPS, 14th in wOBA, 15th in ISO, and 14th in wRC+). And while they do have plenty of solid hitters in the top half of their order, no one in the projected lineup has higher than a .350 wOBA against righties this season. The Blue Jays have also been less effective at home where they’re averaging 4.41 runs/gm (vs. 4.70 runs/gm away). So, while it’s probably safer to take a shot on cheaper arms today while loading up on big bats, Musgrove has a decent shot to return strong value at his $9,600 tag on both sites.

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.1k | vs. MIN

Woo looks like he’ll be a very popular DFS target today but, if you’re fine with the high ownership, then it’s easy to see why he’s a sensible option on this slate. His MLB debut on the road against a dangerous Rangers offense was a disaster, but he has been outstanding in his six starts since. In that span (32.2 IP), he has gone on to post a 2.20 ERA, 3.45 xFIP, 0.89 WHIP, .237 opp wOBA, and a 30.7% kRate. Woo’s primary struggles come from lefty hitters, to which he is allowing an awful 11.81 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, .481 wOBA, and 3.38 HR/9.

The Twins dropped their lineup surprisingly early today so we know that there will be six lefties in their lineup tonight. That’s going to make Woo’s ugly LHB splits a bit worrisome, but at the same time, Woo only has 56 plate appearances versus LHBs at the MLB level, so it’s a very small sample size that we’re referencing here. Woo’s upside will stem from strikeouts seeing as the Twins have an MLB-high 27.7% kRate vs. RHPs over the last month. T-Mobile Park has been the 2nd most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season and the Twins are being pinned with a slate-low 3.2 implied runs. The sportsbooks are liking Woo’s chances of keeping the Twins bats in check today and, at his reasonable DFS salaries, he’s looking like a very worthy option.

Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.9k | vs. ARI

Elder got shelled in his most recent outing against the Rays, giving up seven runs across 3.1 IP. It was easily his worst start of the season but his 2.97 ERA is still strong enough to rank 11th among all qualified MLB starters. His DFS salaries have now fallen to near season lows and, while he does not possess massive strikeout upside (18.4% kRate), he’s been an excellent source of quality starts (QS in 11-of-18 games this season) and he’s always going to have a great shot at a win while being backed up by a potent Braves offense.

Elder will look to bounce back against a slumping D-Backs team that has gone 2-8 over their last 10 games. They’ve scored three runs or fewer on seven occasions during that stretch and, against RHPs, they’ve ranked last in the MLB in AVG (.206), OPS (.592), wOBA (.265), and wRC+ (62) while striking out 23.8% of the time. The D-Backs have been a top-10 scoring offense this season so I don’t expect them to stay down very long but going with Elder in lineups today will provide some strong leverage given his <5% pOwn% on both sites.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10k | @ NYM

Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.8k | @ SEA

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.7k | @ KC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Houston Astros vs. Jacob Bird (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

Non-Coors Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

+ Recommending a Braves stack has become as borderline obvious as saying “Coors Field bats are worth targeting” but, on a large slate that does include Coors Field, the ATL ownership should stay fairly low -- only two hitters have above an 11% pOwn%.

+ Braves: 5.7 implied runs (ranks 2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ Davies is a very ho-him starter who has posted a lackluster 6.37 ERA, 4.65 xFIP, and 1.53 WHIP this season.

+ In 88 PA vs. Davies, the current Braves roster has a .297 AVG, .359 wOBA, .388 xwOBA, and 14.8% kRate.

+ Braves vs. RHPs L30Days: .897 OPS (1st), .381 wOBA (1st), .264 ISO (1st), and 138 wRC+ (1st).

+ Hot temps at Truist Park today, which has been the #7 most hitter-friendly park (#5 HR park) -- Braves are averaging 5.67 runs/gm at home this season.

+ D-Backs have had a bottom-10 bullpen L2Weeks, allowing a 5.55 ERA, 4.81 xFIP, and 1.57 WHIP.

- Davies has been slightly better on the road this season and has allowed a low 27.2% Fly Ball Rate over the last month.

- Core Braves bats continue to be very pricey.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Sean Murphy

Bargain Bat: Michael Harris II

Baltimore Orioles (LHBs Preferred) vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

+ Orioles: 5.1 implied runs (ranks T-4th among non-Coors teams).

+ It’s only a 15.1 IP sample size, but Grove has been atrocious on the road this season with an 11.15 ERA, 5.68 xFIP, 2.48 WHIP, .427 opp AVG, and .454 opp wOBA.

+ Grove has had major struggles with lefty bats, allowing an 8.85 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, .439 wOBA, and .241 ISO to that side of the plate -- O’s are rolling out seven lefty/switch hitters today.

+ Orioles have ranked in the top half offensively vs. RHPs in most key metrics over the last month.

- Dodgers bullpen has been absolutely lights out over the last month, allowing an MLB-low 1.87 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 0.10 HR/9.

- Orioles have only averaged 4.40 runs/gm at home, versus 5.58 runs/gm away.

Favorite BAL Bats: Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman

Bargain Bat: Ryan O’Hearn

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Miami Marlins vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), STL

+ Marlins are an extreme leverage stack today with no hitter having a pOwn% above 2%.

+ Marlins have not hit for much power against LHPs lately, but they are playing some great small ball -- over the last month vs. LHPs, MIA leads the MLB with a .378 AVG, .897 OPS, .390 wOBA, and 149 wRC+.

+ If the Marlins can get Montgomery out fairly early, they’ll face a Cardinals bullpen that has not been great over the last month: 5.34 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 18.9% kRate.

+ Plenty of cheap bats in the Marlins lineup.

-/+ It’s not a great spot for a big Marlins offensive game, but rolling out even a small two or three-man stack will provide significant leverage.

- It’s tough to take too much away from Montgomery -- he’s been great over his last five starts (1.72 ERA, 2.87 FIP, 0.96 WHIP) and has pitched better on the road this season.

- Marlins: 3.6 implied runs (T-2nd lowest on the slate).

Favorite MIA Bats: Jorge Soler, Garrett Cooper, Luis Arraez

Bargain Bat: Dane Myers

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Domingo German (RHP), NYY

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Jake Bird (RHP), COL

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

3B Nolan Arenado, STL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

3B Manny Machado, SD | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR

OF Jake Fraley, CIN | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP), SF

OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Michael Harris II, ATL | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

OF Chas McCormick, HOU | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jake Bird (RHP), COL

3B Jeimer Candelario, WAS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

OF Michael Conforto, SF | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

2B Edouard Julien, MIN | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

SS CJ Abrams, WAS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

OF Corey Julks, HOU | DK: $3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jake Bird (RHP), COL

OF Dane Myers, MIA | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), STL

1B Triston Casas, BOS | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

OF Matt Wallner, MIN | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN | DK: $2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP), SF

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Ronald Acuña Jr. LESS than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts

Kyle Tucker MORE than 9.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!