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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’re hopping back in the saddle with a new week of MLB DFS action! Monday will kick us off with a healthy 10-game slate. Looks like we’ll be getting a fairly balanced slate between pitching and hitting/stack options. Let’s waste no time and dive right into the action. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

CLE @ PIT (7:05 ET): Some intermittent batches of thunderstorms threaten to roll over the ballpark throughout the evening, which may provide some headaches. Fairly strong chance for some delay, and a PPD cannot be ruled out. We’ll need to run a pre-lock radar check here, but for now, exercise caution with players from this game.

LAD @ BAL (7:05 ET): Storms in the general area, but it looks like they’ll luck out and avoid trouble (for now).

SF @ CIN (7:10 ET): This game is expected to start dry, but rain chances spike later in the evening. In-game delay or the risk of not getting all nine innings in are both moderate possibilities.

NYY @ LAA (9:38 ET): Winds OUT to center around 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.3k | @ STL

Luzardo has been on a tear across his previous five starts, producing a 1.16 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and a hefty 34.2% kRate. He has secured a quality start in each of those last five outings and has punched out at least eight batters in four straight.

One of Luzardo’s recent starts came against this same Cardinals team two weeks ago where he threw six shutout innings while allowing five hits, notching eight strikeouts, and earning the win -- good for 28.7 DKFP/52 FDFP. The Cardinals have been hitting lefties well over the last month (.290 AVG, .352 wOBA, 125 wRC+), but they’re also striking out a ton with a 27.7% kRate (4th highest in MLB during that span). It’s safe to say that Luzardo is more talented than most lefties the Cardinals have faced, and they do not match up well against his primary pitch mix of 4-seamer (43.4%), slider (30.2%), and changeup (20.4%). Against that pitch mix (from LHPs), the Cardinals rank 25th with a .307 xwOBA to go along with a huge 27.6% kRate (3rd highest). Luzardo isn’t as trustworthy on the road (-34.1% less FPPG) but he’s been dealing lately and should be able to handle this Cardinals offense with relative ease, much like he did back on July 4th.

Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.8k | vs. NYY

Canning had a tough outing in his last start ahead of the All-Star Break where he lasted just 2.2 innings against the Dodgers on the road, allowing four runs on five hits (three HRs) and a walk. However, he was on a nice run prior to that game so perhaps the time off (10 days since that LAD start) will do him some good. In seven starts between May 23rd and June 30th, Canning pitched to an excellent 3.00 ERA, 3.44 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, .190 opp AVG, and 27.9% kRate. He pitched through at least six innings in six of those seven starts and posted a floor of 15.9 DKFP/30 FDFP.

The Yankees have not been an offense to shy away from with opposing starting pitchers for a while now. Aaron Judge (toe/IL) still doesn’t have a target date to return and one of their other power bats, Josh Donaldson, landed on the 10-day IL yesterday with a calf injury. Since June 1st vs. RHPs, the Yankees rank dead last in the MLB with a .206 AVG, last with a .635 OPS, last with a .279 wOBA, and 29th with a 75 wRC+. They haven’t been striking out a ton (20.9% kRate vs. RHPs since June 1st), but their general lack of offense has allowed opposing starters to pitch deep into games. This sets up as a strong spot for Canning to get back on track.

Matt Manning (RHP), DET | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.5k | @ KC

Manning has just five MLB starts under his belt this season but he has come away with a strong 3.72 ERA and 1.03 WHIP across 29.0 IP. He’s not striking out a ton of guys (16.9% kRate) and his 5.83 xFIP suggests some regression is due. For now, we’ll look for that regression to be staved off for at least one more game while he goes up against one of the MLB’s worst offenses. Manning is also coming off of his best outing of the season against Toronto where he threw 6.2 no-hit innings and scored 26.6 DKFP/45 FDFP!

Over the last month versus RHPs, the Royals rank 27 in AVG (.229), 28th in OPS (.646), 28th in wOBA (.282), and 29th in wRC+ (74). Their 24.7% kRate in that span is also the 6th highest. While Manning likely won’t throw a flurry of strikeouts, he should be set up well to garner another quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) and pay off his modest DFS price tags. Manning will be most attractive as an SP2 option on DraftKings where he is the 5th cheapest starting pitcher on the board at $6,800.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $10.8k, FD: $10.5k | @ CIN

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.9k | vs. MIN

MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.2k | @ CHC

Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8.5k | vs. TB

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

+ Angels: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-5th on the slate).

+ Severino has been in some awful form (8.74 ERA & 2.21 WHIP L5Starts) and has been getting shelled on the road this season: 9.27 ERA, 5.57 xFIP, 2.10 WHIP, .360 opp AVG, .439 opp wOBA, and 2.42 HR/9.

+ The Angels have been outstanding versus RHPs over the last month, trailing only the Braves in OPS (.842), wOBA (.358), ISO (.238), and wRC+ (128).

+ Outside of Shohei Ohtani, the Angels have a ton of cheap bats to choose from.

+ Angels Stadium has been the #10 most hitter-friendly park this season (#7 HR park) and there will be some helpful 10 mph winds blowing out to center tonight.

- The Yankees have had an above-average bullpen this season that has allowed the third-fewest home runs (32).

Favorite LAA Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Mickey Moniak, Mike Moustakas

Bargain Bat: Taylor Ward

Boston Red Sox vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

+ Red Sox: 4.7 implied runs (ranks 8th on the slate).

+ Paul Blackburn has had some solid outings but, overall, has been fairly mediocre this season with a 4.86 ERA, 4.18 xFIP, 1.54 WHIP, and .347 opp wOBA.

+ The Red Sox have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs over the last month in most key metrics, ranking 5th in AVG (.270), 8th in OPS (.774), 9th in wOBA (.333), and 10th in ISO (.182).

+ Red Sox came out swinging some hot bats out of the All-Star Break, posting 23 runs on 33 hits in their weekend series against the Cubs.

+ A’s continue to have one of the worst bullpens in the MLB -- 5.22 xFIP and 1.57 WHIP on the season, 4.73 xFIP, and 1.62 WHIP L30Days.

- Oakland Coliseum is the #6 least hitter-friendly ballpark and the Red Sox are averaging over a run less per game on the road (4.46 runs/gm away, 5.60 runs/gm at home).

- Blackburn has allowed a low 32.7% HardHit% and 4.1% Barrel% this season.

Favorite BOS Bats: Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida, Alex Verdugo

Bargain Bat: Jarren Duran

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Detroit Tigers vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

+ 7-of-9 batters in the projected Tigers lineup have a 5% pOwn% or lower.

+ Tigers: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-5th on the slate).

+ Jordan Lyles has been one of the lowest-quality starters in the MLB this season: 6.42 ERA, 5.36 xFIP, .336 opp wOBA, 1.86 HR/9, and 8.0% Barrel%.

+ Kauffman Stadium has been the #7 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

+ The Royals have had a bottom-10 bullpen this season and they’ve posted a particularly poor 6.27 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over the last month.

- There’s no sugarcoating it -- the Tigers have consistently been a bottom-five offense this season and they’ve posted an MLB-high 28.4% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks.

- Tigers are averaging just 3.83 runs/gm on the road (3rd lowest).

Favorite DET Bats: Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, Zach McKinstry

Bargain Bat: Matt Vierling

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

2B/OF Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), PIT

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

OF Lane Thomas, WAS | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

1B/OF Luke Raley, TB | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

3B JD Davis, SF | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Brandon Williamson (LHP), CIN

OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Josh Naylor, CLE | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), PIT

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

OF Taylor Ward, LAA | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

OF Mickey Moniak, LAA | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

1B/3B Wilmer Flores, SF | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Brandon Williamson (LHP), CIN

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

OF Henry Davis, PIT | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Xzavion Curry (RHP), CLE

1B Mike Moustakas, LAA | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

C Endy Rodriguez, PIT | DK: $2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Xzavion Curry (RHP), CLE

3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Jesus Luzardo MORE than 6.0 Pitcher Strikeouts

Shohei Ohtani MORE than 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!