Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 7/15 | Looking to Attack Lefty Pitching Today

July 15, 2022

There are some shaky southpaws on the mound today... but which ones should we look to attack?

Pennd By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ve got one final massive Friday slate to take down before the All-Star break arrives on Monday! It’s an action-packed 13-game main slate on tap for today. We'll still have Saturday and Sunday slates left before the break but the MLB newsletters and podcasts will return later next week. In the mean time, enjoy the time off from the MLB grind! Let’s waste zero time and jump right into the action on today's big boy slate!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

I’m happy to report that this should be another uneventful day in the weather department. Coors Field could see some rain, but other than that, it’s looking all clear!

PIT @ COL (8:40 ET, 11 O/U): Some rain is expected in the area but it should be some low coverage stuff that dissipates as the evening goes on. Low-end chance for a delay of some sort.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.1k | @ LAA

Kershaw leads all pitchers today with a 2.91 xFIP and .257 opp wOBA. Those impressive figures are paired with a sharp 2.40 ERA, 27.6% kRate, and 1.01 WHIP. Aside from falling victim to Coors Field on 6/28, Kershaw has been putting on some vintage Kershaw performances. He draws a terrific match-up against an Angels team that has an absurdly high 33.6% kRate over the last two weeks while hitting .190 with a .249 wOBA and 58 wRC+ -- easily the worst offensive numbers in the MLB during that stretch. LAA has lost their last ten games where Shohei Ohtani has not pitched so it comes as no surprise that the Dodgers (-195) are heavy favorites to win today, despite being on the road.

Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU | DK: $8k, FD: $8.6k | vs. OAK

Urquidy is not going to ‘wow’ anyone with his pedestrian 17.3% kRate but he sets up as a strong floor play out of the mid-range today. Over his last five starts (33.0 IP), Urquidy has a 3-0 record while pitching at least six full innings (98 pitches/gm) and recording an exceptional 0.73 WHIP. The A’s have the occasional offensively charged game, but they tend to fall on the offensively challenged side of things far more often. They’ve scored three runs or fewer in 10 of their last 15 games, and they managed just four hits against Urquidy across eight full innings last Friday. The Astros are major -200 favorites against the A’s today, and Urquidy can always ‘pop’ for one of his higher strikeout performances. He has recorded as many as 10 Ks in a single game this season so while he is certainly more of a floor play, there is still some upside against an inferior opponent like Oakland, who has the 7th highest kRate vs. RHPs this season.

Jose Quintana (LHP), PIT | DK: $7k, FD: $7.2k | @ COL

You’re pulling the lever on a slot machine with any of the cheap pitchers on this slate, and rolling with Quintana is quite obviously a major gamble since you’d be taking an SP at Coors Field. But Quintana, at the very least, has some nice strikeout potential at these DFS price points after posting a 24.8% kRate over his last five starts. He’s also allowing just a 15.4% HardContact% over the last month with a low 85.9 mph avg exit velocity. The Rockies have been great against lefties at home and haven’t struck out much, but if you’re rolling out a bunch of lineups in GPP, Quintana will be around 2-3% owned and does provide some 20+ DKFP/35+ FDFP upside.

Also Consider:

Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR | DK: $9k, FD: $9.6k | vs. KC

Yu Darvish (RHP), SD | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.2k | vs. ARI

Zach Plesac (RHP), CLE | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.8k | vs. DET

Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.6k | @ WAS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), PIT

Other Stacks to Consider

Chicago White Sox vs. Drew Smeltzer (LHP), MIN

The White Sox against an inconsistent lefty starter is always going to pique some stack interest. CWS leads the MLB with a .288 AVG, .348 wOBA, and 129 wRC+ against LHPs this season. They’re still not 100% healthy on offense but they do have five guys in their current projected lineup that have posted at least a 146 wRC+ over the last month (Jose Abreu, Luis Robert, Josh Harrison, Seby Zavala, Gavin Sheets) and other guys like Tim Anderson, Andrew Vaughn, and Yoan Moncada can always pop off as well.

Twins Bullpen Rating: 7/10

Favorite CWS Bats: Luis Robert, Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson | Sneaky Bat: Josh Harrison

Atlanta Braves vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

The Braves are a power-hitting team so when they aren’t getting the dingers and doubles, they’ll often fall a bit flat in the final box score. With that said, they tend to show up against lefty pitching and Patrick Corbin is a southpaw they’ve seen plenty of, most recently as six days ago. Atlanta ranks top three against LHPs with a .340 wOBA, .199 ISO, and 34.4% HardContact%. In 212 PA against Corbin, the Braves are hitting .302 with a .366 wOBA and .177 ISO. Corbin is a former ace-level pitcher but he has shown plenty of inconsistency on the mound the last couple of years and he checks in dead last among today’s starters with a 1.67 WHIP and .373 opp wOBA. There’s a good chance ATL gets a slew of runners on the base paths today which bodes well for RBI-scoring XBHs. The Nationals bullpen has been pitching better as of late but, overall, they’ve been a bottom 10 relief unit on the season.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 5/10

Favorite ATL Bats: Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson, Ronald Acuna Jr. | Sneaky Bat: Travis d’Arnaud

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

RHP Matt Bush will serve as the opener for the Rangers today but he has not pitched more than a single inning in his 33 appearances this year so he’s almost certainly done after the first frame. LHP Taylor Hearn (5.86 ERA, 4.70 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, .290 opp AVG) has been called up from Triple-A and is expected to follow up Bush and serve as the primary “bulk relief” pitcher. The Mariners bring an 11-game win streak into the second game of this series against the Rangers today. Since this win streak began on July 2nd, they have been demolishing left-handed pitching to the tune of a .333 AVG, .408 wOBA, .194 ISO, and 175 wRC+. Let’s look for the Mariners to stay hot out in Texas tonight!

Rangers Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh | Sneaky Bat: Sam Haggerty

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Juan Soto | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

OF Luis Robert | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Drew Smeltzer (LHP), MIN

SS Bo Bichette | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Cole Irvin (RHP), OAK

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

2B Jorge Polanco | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Luis Patino (RHP), TB

SS Oneil Cruz | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Josh Naylor | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Drew Hutchinson (RHP), DET

SS Jose Iglesias | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), PIT

OF Ramon Laureano | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU

2B Andres Gimenez | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Drew Hutchinson (RHP), DET

3B Matt Chapman | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

1B Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Luis Patino (RHP), TB

OF Sam Haggerty | DK; $2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

OF Nolan Jones | DK: $2k, FD: $3k | vs. Drew Hutchinson (RHP), DET

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

What better way for the ROTY hopeful to prepare for his upcoming Home Run Derby appearance on Monday than to yam one out of the park on a big Friday night?! Since JRod operates as the Mariners lead-off man, he’ll face opener RHP Matt Bush to start things off tonight. But the hope is that he can get two or three at-bats against struggling lefty Taylor Hearn once he enters the game as the Rangers bulk reliever. Rodriguez has been fantastic on the road against lefties this season where he is hitting .316 with a .412 wOBA, .263 ISO, and 25.0% HR/FB Rate. Hearn and the Rangers bullpen both give up a fair amount of home runs, and they’ll be facing a tough challenge against this young slugger when he steps into the box.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Clayton Kershaw OVER 6.5 Strikeouts | -140 (BetMGM) | 3.0 Units

As mentioned in the DFS pitcher section, the Angels have been hacking at everything lately while accounting for an MLB-worst 33.6% kRate over the last two weeks. Kershaw’s 27.6% kRate is well above league average and he has recorded at least seven punchouts in three of his last four games. The Dodgers are often hesitant with their starter’s workloads and Kershaw has often seen his pitch count only hit into the 80s. However, he has thrown 98 and 102 pitches in his last two outings and with the All-Star break coming up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see manager Dave Roberts continue to let Kershaw throw close to 100 pitches once again tonight. Though, he may only need about 80-85 pitches to cash this prop to begin with.

Austin Riley OVER 1.5 Total Bases | -120 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

I had this same prop bet posted yesterday and unfortunately, it didn’t pan out as Riley went 1-for-4 with a single. It’s still a bet that has cashed in eight of Riley’s last 10 games so let’s give it another go today. Riley crushes lefty pitching and he has a lifetime .292 average/.390 wOBA against LHP Patrick Corbin in 27 plate appearances. He should be able to get the job done today and his +300 (FanDuel) home run prop odds are worth considering as well.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!