Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 7/14 | Searching for the Big Bats on a Pitcher-Centric Slate!

July 14, 2022

Find out which offenses are poised to break out on a pitcher-centric slate...

Pennd By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

OnDeck Podcast 📣

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I would say thanks to Tyler for covering the past couple of MLB newsletters for me, but he’s been roasting me in these intros, so that’ll be a no-go. Instead, we’ll turn towards today’s spicy 11-game main slate. There is no shortage of arm talent on the mound today so landing on the right offenses seems to be the most difficult challenge for this slate. The LineStar fam never backs down from a healthy challenge so let’s get down to business!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

It’s a super vanilla weather day so there is not much to mention here. Of course, a boring weather day is preferred 100% of the time over a busy/problematic weather day!

CWS @ MIN (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10 mph winds blowing IN from right.

NYM @ CHC (8:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Winds near 10 mph blowing IN from center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Carlos Rodon (LHP), SF | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.9k | vs. MIL

A good ole fashioned pitcher’s duel is in the cards out in San Francisco tonight, with Rodon taking on Brewers ace Corbin Burnes ($10.6k/$11.3k). Both pitchers will likely be popular tonight, rightfully so. Rodon gets the nod as the top highlighted pitcher today following a complete game performance against the Padres last Saturday which featured 12 strikeouts and one earned run allowed. Rodon has pitched even better at home this season, where he has an electric 35.4% kRate with a 2.65 xFIP and 2.08 ERA. The Brewers are a below-average offense against LHPs, and, over the last two weeks against lefties, they’re hitting only .213 with a 92 wRC+ and 24.5% kRate. It’ll be hard to top his last performance, but Rodon should certainly land on the DFS radar today.

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.1k | vs. KC

Gausman hasn’t been overly consistent as of late but there is one glaring reason why he goes down as a pitcher to consider today: the Kansas City Royals will be fielding what could barely be considered a major league caliber lineup. Since this game is in Toronto, several key Royals contributors will not be available to play due to Canada’s vaccination policy. Ten players on KC’s 26-man roster will not make the trip to Toronto including Andrew Benintendi, Whit Merrifield, MJ Melendez, Hunter Dozier, and Michael A. Taylor. We should expect Gausman (2.86 ERA, 2.81 xFIP, 27% kRate) to take advantage of this watered-down Royals lineup that isn’t particularly good even when they’re at 100%.

Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS | DK: $6.8k, FD: $6.2k | @ TB

Many of Crawford’s numbers have been on the lackluster side. In 30.0 IP this season, he has recorded a 4.50 ERA, 4.16 xFIP, 3.69 SIERA, and 1.43 WHIP. However, what does stand out with Crawford is his 28.8% kRate, which is well above league average. He also had his best game of the season against this Rays team 10 days ago when he covered 5.1 scoreless innings where he gave up just two hits, one walk, and struck out eight. Crawford carries some risk, but there is plenty enough strikeout upside to make him worth some GPP consideration out of the value range.

Also Consider:

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.3k | @ SF

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.3k | @ LAA

Kyle Wright (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.5k | @ WAS

Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.3k | vs. DET

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jackson Kowar (RHP), KC

At the time of this writing, Kowar is not the confirmed Royals starter -- some sources are reporting that it may be RHP Carlos Hernandez on the hill today. Both Kowar and Hernandez have been terrible this season. Neither one represents a scary match-up for this talented Blue Jays lineup that just hung eight runs and 11 hits on Zack Wheeler and the Phillies yesterday. The Blue Jays often deliver at home, where they rank second in the MLB with a .349 team wOBA and 121 wRC+. They should be a nice option against the shorthanded Royals today.

KC Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite TOR Bats: George Springer, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernandez | Sneaky Bat: Matt Chapman

Atlanta Braves vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

The Braves didn’t do much on offense in their three-game Mets series, but they have found plenty of success against the Nationals this season. In 326 at-bats against Washington this year, Atlanta has a team .304 AVG with a .403 wOBA, .248 ISO, and 159 wRC+. They’ll get to face off with RHP Anibal Sanchez, who is making his 2022 debut and his first start since Sept. 26th, 2020. Across 53.0 IP in the 2020 season, Sanchez came away with a poor 6.62 ERA, 5.30 xFIP, 1.66 WHIP, and a 1.87 HR/9 Rate. After a few rehab starts in Triple-A ball, Sanchez is not expected to face any major limitations.

WAS Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite ATL Bats: Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr. | Sneaky Bat: Michael Harris II

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cincinnati Reds vs. Nestor Cortes (RHP), NYY

The Reds have been playing decent baseball as of late. They’re 5-1 in their last six games, averaging 5.3 runs/gm. Overall, this season has been a success for Cortes, but he’s shown some poor trends recently. Over the last month, Cortes has been bottom 5% in the average distance (210.1 ft), the bottom 15% in average exit velocity (91.2 mph), and the bottom 20% in barreled balls (seven), and he has forced just 8.1% soft contact. No one will be on the Reds bats today, and they could have two or three guys that come out of this game with some juicy fantasy scores.

NYY Bullpen Rating: 8/10

Favorite Reds Bats: Brandon Drury, Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson | Sneaky Bat: Kyle Farmer

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

2B Marcus Semien | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Elvin Rodriguez (RHP), DET

OF George Springer | DK: $5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jackson Kowar (RHP), KC

2B Jorge Polanco | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), CWS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B Justin Turner | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL

3B Eugenio Suarez | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), TEX

C Tyler Stephenson | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Nestor Cortes (RHP), NYY

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jackson Kowar (RHP), KC

OF Harold Ramirez | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

1B/OF Aledmys Diaz | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

3B Josh Smith | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

OF Nolan Jones | DK: $2k, FD: $3k | vs. Elvin Rodriguez (RHP), DET

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF George Springer | DK: $5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jackson Kowar (RHP), KC

Time for another Springer dinger! Whether it's RHP Jackson Kowar or RHP Carlos Hernandez starting for the undermanned Royals tonight, either guy would represent a great match-up for Springer who has posted a .244 ISO and 19.7% HR/FB Rate vs. RHPs this season. Let’s see Springer go out there and hunt for home run number 18 on the season!

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Austin Riley OVER 1.5 Total Bases | -110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

There aren’t many hitters that have been hotter than Riley as of late and he has successfully cashed this prop in eight of his last nine games -- he hit five home runs in that stretch as well. Riley has been producing these big hits against much better pitching than what he’ll go up against today. I just can’t see any reason to be afraid of a 38-year-old Anibal Sanchez, who hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since 2020, and an inconsistent Nationals bullpen.

Kutter Crawford OVER 4.5 Strikeouts | -146 (Caesars) | 2.0 Units

First off, what a fantastic baseball name. Crawford hasn’t pitched a ton of innings this season (30.0 IP) but in that limited time, he has accumulated an impressive 28.8% kRate. Crawford should operate as a traditional starter today and throw around 90 pitches across five or six innings. In Crawford’s games where he has pitched through at least three innings, he has cashed this o4.5 K prop on 4-of-5 occasions. And, of course, he racked up eight strikeouts against this same Rays offense just ten days ago. Five Ks should be a fairly easy strikeout total for Crawford to cash in on today.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Best of luck out there today, everyone!