Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Welcome back baseball fans! I hope everyone enjoyed the All-Star Break festivities. Even though it was only a handful of days without meaningful baseball, I know we’re all excited to have MLB back. It never hurts to get a mental reset from the grind that is MLB DFS, but now it’s all gas, no brakes until the 2023 World Series champion is crowned. We’ll re-enter the arena in a big way with a massive 14-game slate on tap to send us into the weekend. Aces on the mound, intriguing value pitching, big offenses in big spots, and Coors Field is back in play -- this slate has it all! The only downside today is that we’ll have a few pesky weather situations to monitor but, other than that, this should be a fun one! Best of luck today and in the second half of this MLB season!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

We’ll have several “chance for a delay due to scattered storms” situations today. Most or all of these games could also play without any issues but we could get surprised by one or two postponements. In general, just be sure to run a final weather check closer to lock.

MIA @ BAL (7:05 ET): Some scattered storms in the area will bring forth some delay potential. A PPD doesn’t seem to be in the cards but starting pitchers will take on some added risk due to a possible middle-inning delay.

LAD @ NYM (7:10 ET): We may need to run a pre-game radar check here with some potential of a storm system moving in around first pitch. Not a massive concern right now, but that may change closer to gametime.

CWS @ ATL (7:20 ET): Typical summertime Atlanta forecast with a low-end chance for a pop-up storm.

BOS @ CHC (8:05 ET): Possible rain in the later innings but more likely they’ll play without issue. 5-10 mph winds blowing OUT.

TB @ KC (8:10 ET): Late start is a strong possibility with some bad weather clearing in the early evening hours. Probably need to run a pre-game forecast check here as well in case the storm system looks to hang around longer than expected.

WAS @ STL (8:15 ET): May see some scattered storms impact play here as well but it’s another one of those cases where avoiding trouble altogether is a more likely outcome. 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to left give a nice boost to bats.

NYY @ COL (8:40 ET): Winds IN from center/right -- stronger in the early/mid-innings, around 15 mph. It’s still Coors Field, just not prime hitting conditions.

HOU @ LAA (9:38 ET): Winds OUT to center around 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), TB | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10k | @ KC

Note: Remember to keep an eye on the forecast for this game. A lengthy late start is a possibility and an outright PPD cannot be ruled out completely.

Assuming they can avoid the bad weather and get this game in tonight, Tyler Glasnow will set up as an attractive spend-up option at pitcher. Some bad luck has artificially inflated his ERA to 4.10 through eight starts this season. His slate-best 2.74 xFIP is closer to where his ERA should be and he leads all pitchers today, by a decent margin, with an electric 36.4% kRate and 18.5% SwStr%.

The major draw for Glasnow today will stem from his match-up with the Royals. The Royals have not fared well at all against Glasnow’s primary pitch mix of 4-seamer (43.6%), slider (34.4%), and curveball (21.3%). Against those pitches (from RHPs), Kansas City has an MLB-low .209 AVG and .277 wOBA to go along with a huge 28.4% kRate (2nd highest in MLB). Their vulnerability to Glasnow’s pitch arsenal was on full display on June 25th, when he struck out 12 Royals’ hitters across just five innings of work while allowing just one run on four hits and a walk. The only downside here, outside of weather concerns, is the fact that the Rays tend to keep their starters on a short leash. However, Glasnow did notch a season-high 102 pitches two starts ago and he should be fresh coming out of the All-Star Break with seven days rest since his last outing. The Rays (-280 ML) are also the heaviest favorites on this slate so we should expect a win bonus to come Glasnow’s way this evening.

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.7k | vs. DET

Castillo has had a couple of less-than-ideal outings recently, against the Rays and Yankees. However, his $8,900 DraftKings salary is as low as it’s been since his first start of the season and his $9,700 tag on FanDuel is tied for a season-low. Castillo is a proven ace so, while he’s not cheap, we’ll happily jump on him at these sorts of salaries. Castillo hasn’t necessarily been bad on the road but he’s certainly proven to be more effective at home (+48.4% more FPPG), which is where he’ll be tonight. Quickly, let’s run through his home/away splits from this season:

Home: 2.44 ERA, 3.15 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, .254 opp wOBA, 0.95 HR/9, 30.5% kRate

Away: 3.51 ERA, 4.57 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP, .320 opp wOBA, 1.76 HR/9, 21.4% kRate

The most notable thing, at least for DFS upside, is the significant spike in Castillo’s kRate when he’s pitching at home, but he has also nearly cut his HR/9 rate in half. It’s not a major surprise, given that T-Mobile Park has rated as the #1 pitcher’s park this season. It also helps that the Tigers have been a bottom-five offense on the road where they’re averaging just 3.84 runs/gm (ranks 28th). Against RHPs on the road this season, the Tigers are hitting an MLB-worst .212 to go along with a .627 OPS (last), .277 wOBA (29th), and 74 wRC+ (29th). We’ll look for Castillo to pitch a gem in this match-up tonight.

Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.5k | @ CHC

The pitching options at the bottom of the barrel are not overly enticing but Bello is going to make plenty of sense out of the lower mid-range today. He’s displayed a strong floor and solid upside for much of the season and he’s been particularly effective as of late. Spanning his last five starts, Bello has procured a 1.85 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .185 opp AVG, and .228 opp wOBA. His 18.0% kRate in that span isn’t going to blow anyone away and his 4.11 xFIP suggests some regression is due. But we have to love Bello’s ability to pitch deep into games, covering at least 6.2 IP in those previous five starts (and 7.0 IP in 4-of-5), and he’s averaged 102.0 pitches/gm in that stretch. The 5-10 mph winds blowing out at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field are also less of a concern with Bello, who leads the slate with a 55.8% Ground Ball Rate this season.

The Cubbies offense may not be loaded with many power bats but they do have a knack for hitting for average and stringing some runs together. However, their 96 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month pins them as a below-average offense and their 23.7% kRate in that span is the 10th highest in MLB. They also hit into a ton of ground balls (45.8% GB% vs. RHPs this season, 4th highest), which plays well into Brayan Bello’s ability to induce grounders. It has been nine days since he last pitched, but assuming Bello jumps right back into his normal workload following the All-Star Break, we should expect six or seven solid innings out of Bello with a handful of strikeouts along the way.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $10.9k, FD: N/A | vs. HOU (Note: Ohtani is only slotted in as a pitcher on DK today & will only accrue points as a hitter on FD)

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $9k, FD: $9.5k | vs. CWS

Kenta Maeda (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7k | @ OAK

Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.2k | @ BAL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

New York Yankees vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

Non-Coors Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

+ Braves: 5.4 implied runs (ranks 1st among non-Coors teams).

+ Kopech has struggled on the road (-47.2% less FPPG) where he owns a poor 5.49 xFIP, 1.55 WHIP, and .358 opp wOBA.

+ Kopech leans heavily on his 4-seamer (62.4% of his pitches this season) -- against RHP 4-seamers, the Braves rank 1st with a .387 xwOBA, 3rd with a .250 ISO, and 1st with a 94.1 mph avg exit velo.

+ Braves rank 1st vs. RHPs over the last month in the following metrics: AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, wRC+, HardContact%, and HR/FB%.

+ Truist Park has been the #7 hitter’s park this season -- Braves averaging 5.71 runs/gm at home.

+ White Sox bullpen over the last month: 4.96 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 1.33 HR/9 Rate.

- Core Braves bats are pricey.

- It’s not uncommon for a hot offense to come out a little cold following the All-Star Break.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Sean Murphy, Matt Olson

Bargain Bat: Eddie Rosario

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

+ Brewers: 5.3 implied runs (ranks T-2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ Ashcraft has been rocked at home (-70.6% less FPPG) in the hitter-friendly GABP this season to the tune of a 7.95 ERA, 5.02 xFIP, 1.65 WHIP, .389 opp wOBA, and 2.09 HR/9 Rate.

+ Brewers went off against Ashcraft on June 3rd, scoring 10 runs on nine hits (two HRs) against him in just four innings.

+ Brewers have been a disappointing offense, but they’ve been solid over their last 10 games with a .755 OPS, .332 wOBA, 107 wRC+, and an MLB-low 16.8% kRate.

+ Great American Ballpark has been the #5 best hitter’s park this season (and #2 home run park).

+ Reds bullpen has an MLB-worst 5.46 xFIP over the last month.

- Ashcraft went into the All-Star Break on the heels of a pair of quality starts.

- Milwaukee has been a bottom-10 offense against RHPs on the season.

Favorite MIL Bats: Willy Adames, Christian Yelich, William Contreras

Bargain Bat: Jesse Winker

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cincinnati Reds vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL

+ Every Reds hitter has a <5% pOwn%.

+ Reds: 5.3 implied runs (ranks T-2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ Burnes has been aggressively average over his last five starts: 5.46 ERA, 4.18 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP, 21.6% kRate, and 62.9% LOB%.

+ The Reds offense has been surging over the last month, trailing only the Braves in OPS, wOBA, and ISO while ranking 3rd with a 121 wRC+.

+ Reds are averaging 5.02 runs/gm at home -- Great American Ballpark has been the #5 best hitter’s park this season (and #2 home run park).

-/+ Burnes did lock down the Reds offense in his last start on July 7th (6.0 IP, 3 H, 4 BB, 2 ER, 6 K) but facing the same pitcher within the span of a week can often work out in favor of the offense.

- Burnes is allowing a low 86.1 mph average exit velo this season and a low 4.3% Barrel%.

- Brewers have had an above-average bullpen over the last month.

Favorite CIN Bats: Elly De La Cruz, Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl

Bargain Bat: Will Benson

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CLE

3B/SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), NYM

C Sean Murphy, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

3B Nolan Arenado, STL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. TBA, WAS

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP),CHC

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

OF Harrison Bader, NYY | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

SS Willy Adames, MIL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

1B/OF Luke Raley, TB | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Anthony Volpe, NYY | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

3B Isaac Paredes, TB | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

3B Josh Donaldson, NYY | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

1B/3B Wilmer Flores, SF | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), PIT

2B/3B Jordan Westburg, BAL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

SS CJ Abrams, WAS | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF Will Benson, CIN | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL

OF Dane Myers, MIA | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

OF Jesse Winker, MIL | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s HR Call:

C Sean Murphy, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Will Benson MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

Jose Berrios MORE than 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!