Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 7/12 | Big Tuesday

July 12, 2022

The big decision today is do you play the San Diego Padres in COL?

Pennd By: Tyler Wiemann

OnDeck Podcast πŸ“£

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! Never know when we'll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Hello everyone! I know you are all accustomed to Ryan's newsletter but he needed the day off after his team got "Scherzered".

We have a nice 14-game slate (13 on FD) on our hands. Ownership is heavily favoring the top-end pitchers and the San Diego Padres today. With the Padres being fairly cheap I would expect lots of lineups to use them while still paying up for pitching. This will likely be even more exaggerated in single-entry contests. With the total number of games high and ownership focusing on the Padres it is very easy to get different today if you want to.

Now let's dive in...

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Pay attention to the weather today as there are a few areas of increased weather risk.

CIN @ NYY: Warm weather and wins blowing out to left (10-15MPH), but there is some delay and/or PPD risk.

SEA @ WAS: Warm weather and wins blowing out to right (5-10), but there is some delay and/or PPD risk.

MIL @ MIN: In-game delay is possible.

BAL @ CHC: Winds out to right (10MPH), low 80's.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Dylan Cease (RHP), CHW | DK: $9.7k, FD: N/A | vs. CLE

  • Linestar’s highest projected pitcher and highest Leverage score 

  • 34% K rate over the last 20 starts and 37.9% over his last 5 starts.

  • Top 10 best 2.45 ERA/ .205 opp avg ranks 3rd in Ks

  • Hasn't allowed more than 1 earned run in 8 starts

  • The 26-year-old has fanned eight batters or more in five of his last six starts and has allowed one earned run or fewer in eight straight starts.

  • CLE's lineup has a .120 ISO vs righties.

  • CLE's lineup has a .303 wOBA vs righties.

 Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.6k | @ CIN

  • 3.26 ERA/.199 opp average

  • 2nd highest projected pitcher for today

  • Highest Safety Score 

  • New York is heavily favored. [-310]

  • CIN's lineup has a 23.1% K rate vs righties. (above average)

  •  Cole is Averaging 23.5% more FP while home.

  •  27.83 FPPG in 7 Home games, 22.87 over 15 games.

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.1k | vs. PHI

  • 2.60 ERA/ .168 opp average

  • Double-digit strikeout totals in each of the last 2 games  

  • Has only allowed one run on eight hits while compiling a 30:3 K:BB in 18 innings over the last three starts.

  •  Atlanta is heavily favored. [-190]

  • Mets do have highest avg vs. RHP however a .139 ISO vs righties. (below average) 

  •  Strider Scored 31.77 FPPG past 3 games.

Chris Sale (LHP), BOS | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.6k | vs. TBR

  • Sale is back After missing the first half of the season with a stress fracture in his rib cage.

  • Expected to be limited to around 85 pitches

  •  Tropicana Field: #2 most pitcher-friendly park.

  •  TB's lineup has a 24.6% K rate vs lefties. (very high!)

  •  TB's lineup has a .290 wOBA vs lefties. (well below avg)

  •  TB's lineup has a .100 ISO vs lefties. (extremely low)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), SD

Other Stacks to Consider

 

New York Yankees vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

  • Highest projected stack includes: LaMaheiu, Judge, Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton, and Josh Donaldson

  • Yankees 4th highest average past 14 days 

  • Ashcraft has a 4.35 ERA/ .271 opp average but righties are crushing him at .337 average

  • NYY's lineup has a .346 wOBA vs righties.

  • NYY's lineup has a .196 ISO vs righties.

  •  Wind is blowing out to left at 12 MPH

San Francisco Giants vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), ARI

  • Keuchel 7.63 ERA/ .324 opp avg

  • Was a little better in his last outing 3ER in 7IP 

  • Lowest projected pitcher on Linestar today

  • SF's lineup has a .347 wOBA vs lefties. (above avg)

  •  SF's lineup has a .193 ISO vs lefties. (above avg)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out πŸ€”

Detroit Tigers vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

  • Kris Bubic 6.84 ERA / .301 opp average.

  • Lefties batting .396 against him and he’s worse at home 7.77 ERA/.310 opp average

  • Might be a good day for Tigers lefty bats Riley Greene, and Harold Castro. 

Home Run Call of the Day πŸ’£πŸ’₯

Shohei Ohtani | DK: $6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU

  • Garcia is giving up 1.6 HR/9

  • Ohtani has 2 HRs in 17 PAs vs Garcia

  • Ohtani has a .272 ISO vs RHP

  • Garica gives up a .214 ISO to lefties.  

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!