Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 7/11 | Reaching Max Level

July 11, 2022

Max Fried or Max Scherzer? Which Max ace should you go with today?

Pennd By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’re officially past the halfway point in the MLB season and one week away from the All-Star break so let’s cherish these slates while we’ve got ‘em! A mid-sized main slate is on the docket today with eight games in play. As I’m writing this, I’m actually on my way to one of those eight games -- me and the old man are going to the three-game Braves vs. Mets series in Atlanta. Since I’m whipping up this newsletter while on the road, it’s going to be on the shorter side. Let’s crush it!

Note: FanDuel will not include the game two of the DET @ KC doubleheader on their main slate.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Zero PPD threats on the board!

CWS @ CLE: Near 90 degrees with 12 mph winds blowing OUT to center/right.

PHI @ STL: Humid, temps in the upper 90s at first pitch with light winds blowing OUT to center.

DET @ KC (Game 2): 10 mph winds blowing IN from left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.4k | vs. NYM

This Fried vs. Scherzer match-up has all the makings of a pitcher’s duel tonight, so which Max will come out on top? Putting my Braves bias aside, it’s a near coin flip if you ask me. But Fried offers a few hundred in salary savings compared to Scherzer, he’s a slight home favorite, and he’s going up a Mets offense that has been fairly average lately (106 wRC+ L2Wks). The Mets are also expected to be without two of their better hitters today (Starling Marte & Jeff McNeil). It would not be a shocker to see a watered down lineup could struggle against a super consistent pitcher like Fried. The Mets are also hitting just .190 against Fried in their last 69 at-bats.

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.2k | @ SF

Kelly has been posting up some super solid performances which often net him 20+ DKFP/35+ FDFP. He just faced this same Giants team in his last start five days ago when he held them to just two hits, three walks, and two runs across 6.1 IP (97 pitches). In general, the Giants offense has been downright bad. Against RHPs in the last two weeks, they’re hitting a meager .195 with a 77 wRC+ and 24.5% kRate. Despite hanging twelve runs on the Padres yesterday, it wouldn’t be a shocker to see the Giants bats immediately go back to being cold when they go up against Kelly tonight. He’ll be a better bargain over on DraftKings.

Also Consider:

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $10k, FD: $10.1k | @ STL

Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS | DK: $5k, FD: $6k | @ TB

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), SD

Other Stacks to Consider

 

Texas Rangers vs. Adrian Martinez (RHP), OAK

The Rangers have posted up top 10 offensive numbers in recent weeks. Their 122 wRC+ over the last two weeks trails only the Astros, Yankees, Twins, Braves, and Dodgers in that span -- not bad company to keep. They’ll face off with an inexperienced pitcher in Adrian Martinez today. Martinez has not been a complete disaster through his three starts but he’s giving up a lot of contact which has led to plenty of hits. He has also surrendered multiple HRs in each of his last two starts.

OAK Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite TEX Bats: Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia | Sneaky Bat: Josh H. Smith

Chicago White Sox vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

The White Sox bats are trending up and they’re going against a fairly average starter in Cal Quantrill who has racked up a 1.50 WHIP over his last five starts. Behind Quantrill will be a Guardians bullpen that has been pretty disastrous lately with an MLB worst 7.11 ERA and 2.23 HR/9 Rate over the last 14 days.

CLE Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite CWS Bats: Jose Abreu, Gavin Sheets, Luis Robert | Sneaky Bat: Seby Zavala

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM

This is definitely a long shot against Mad Max but Scherzer hasn’t had the best success against the Braves recently. In the last three years, Scherzer has a not-so-spectacular 4.45 ERA versus Atlanta along with a 2.20 HR/9 Rate. The Braves lead the MLB with a 36.0% HardContact% vs. RHPs and they have recorded a .263 team ISO with seven home runs against Scherzer in 145 plate appearances.

Favorite ATL Bats: Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr. | Sneaky Bat: Michael Harris II

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B Marcus Semien | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Adrian Martinez (RHP), OAK

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS

3B Manny Machado | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

SS Javier Baez | DK: $4.4k, FD: N/A | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

OF JD Martinez | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Josh Fleming (LHP), TB

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Michael Harris II | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM

1B Luke Voit | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

C Seby Zavala | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

1B Darick Hall | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

3B Josh H. Smith | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Adrian Martinez (RHP), OAK

OF Trent Grisham | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

OF Gavin Sheets | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B Marcus Semien | DK: $5.2k, FD: | vs. Adrian Martinez (RHP), OAK

Martinez has allowed four HRs in his last two games, all at the hands of RHBs. Semien has decent pop against righty pitchers and has now delivered four dingers over the fence within his last eleven games. After a slow start to the season, Semien is swinging a hot bat and has hit 10 HRs since the start of June as well. Let’s look for him to stay hot and go yard against either Martinez or Oakland’s bottom 10 ranked bullpen.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Merrill Kelly OVER 4.5 Strikeouts | -105 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Kelly has cashed this prop in five of his last six starts. While he does have to face the same Giants offense twice within the span of five days (always adds some risk to the pitcher), it’s still a team that has been relatively dormant at the plate while striking out 24.5% of the time over the last 14 days. Kelly is averaging just under 100 pitches/gm over his last five and will have plenty of time to rack up at least five Ks tonight in a pitcher-friendly environment.

JD Martinez OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +100 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

Martinez has been excellent against lefties this season while hitting .383 against them with a .474 wOBA. Rays LHP Josh Fleming has been smacked around ny opposing RHBs to the tune of a .366 AVG and .436 wOBA. Martinez has hit for multiple bases in three consecutive games prior to today and is in a nice spot to extend that streak to four.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck out there today, everyone!