Today's Top DFS Plays & Prop Bets from your #1 Companion for DraftKings, FanDuel, & Yahoo!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

As the saying around here goes… “new month, new money!” It’s another jam-packed baseball Friday and a healthy 10-game main slate stands on deck this evening. I’ve got nothing creative to say in this intro so how about we just commit to having a great day as we head into the July 4th weekend! Let's dive right on into some plays and props, shall we?

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

We’ve been fortunate on the weather front the last few days but today we’ll actually have some potential issues to worry about. The main games of concern will be KC @ DET and NYY @ CLE.

MIL @ PIT (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Rain moves into the area later tonight but the expectation is that it will hold off until after this game is finished.

KC @ DET (7:10 ET, -- O/U): Seems like rain is going to be unavoidable here so, if they don’t issue an early postponement, be on the lookout for a lengthy delay to the start of this game.

TEX @ NYM (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): Warm with winds near 15 mph blowing OUT to center.

NYY @ CLE (7:10 ET, 8 O/U): There’s a chance that some heavier rain will move into the CLE area right around first pitch. It’s not an incredibly high chance, but they will have to get a little lucky to dodge some trouble today. Warm temps with winds blowing OUT to right at 10 mph as well.

BAL @ MIN (8:10 ET, 9 O/U): Temps around 80 degrees with 10 mph winds blowing OUT to center/right.

ARI @ COL (8:10 ET, 11.5 O/U): Some spotty showers may lead to a delay at some point but a washout is unlikely. Nice hitting conditions at Coors Field with winds blowing OUT to center/left around 10 mph.

Note: For the purposes of this newsletter, I will avoid mentioning any plays from the KC/DET game due to notable PPD risk.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.9k | @ PIT

The Pirates offense has been trending up as of late but, by the low standards they’ve set this season, “trending up” for them means that they’ve been more of a league-average offense instead of a bottom-of-the-barrel dumpster fire. Their 104 wRC+ over the last two weeks places them at 17th in the MLB but they also remain one of the most strikeout-heavy offenses in baseball -- 25.7% kRate L2Wks (4th highest). Brewers ace Corbin Burnes brings a slate-best 32.4% kRate and 16.7% Swinging Strike Rate to the table today. Double-digit strikeouts are in play for the big righty today and the Brew Crew checks in with heavy -200 odds to win.

Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.3k, FD: $9.4k | vs. SD

I don’t usually like highlighting multiple top-dollar pitchers but Tony G certainly deserves a mention. His 1.58 ERA leads all starting MLB pitchers and despite his unspectacular 3.79 xFIP indicating that he is due for some regression, it simply isn’t happening. For two months straight, Gonsolin has posted DFS scores of at least 16.3 DKFP/27 FDFP, which is simply some insane consistency. Since he began this stretch of excellent pitching on May 4th, Gonsolin has held opponents to a meager .145 AVG while posting a solid 26.5% kRate and stranding 95.6% of base runners. The Padres enter this game with some cold bats. Over the last week, they’ve accounted for only a .269 wOBA, .086 ISO, and 74 wRC+. Our guy Tyler is not gonna like it, but this should be another spot where Gonsolin posts a strong fantasy score.

Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.8k | @ SF

Lynn is only three starts and 16.0 IP deep into his 2022 campaign but it didn’t take long for us to see one of those patented Lance Lynn workloads. He got up to 109 pitches in his last outing on Saturday. While his 6.19 ERA does look rough, his 3.33 xFIP across his three starts is a better indicator of where his ERA *should* be. We can also expect his strikeouts to start going up soon. Lynn’s 23.3% kRate currently sits just above league average, however his 15.2% Swinging Strike Rate is approaching elite territory (usually you can double a pitcher’s SwStr% to get an idea of where their overall kRate should be). He’ll step on the mound in a great pitching environment tonight as well. Those 10+ mph winds blowing out at Oracle Park will not matter much (the park mitigates wind factor) and temperatures are going to be in the low 50s. The Giants have been a fairly average offense and they’ve offered up a high 25.1% kRate over the last two weeks as well. It’s a good spot for Lynn to pay off his mid-range salaries.

Also Consider:

Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.1k | vs. LAA

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9k | vs. BAL

Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.2k | vs. MIL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Other Stacks to Consider

Minnesota Twins (RHBs) vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

Spenser Watkins ranks last among today’s starting pitchers with a 5.79 xFIP. The Twins righty bats will be in a strong position to take advantage of Watkins’ poor reverse splits as well. Against RHBs, Watkins has allowed a .412 wOBA, .291 ISO, and 2.08 HR/9 Rate with a 6.23 ERA, 6.31 xFIP, and 1.62 WHIP. Rough stuff. The Twins have some decent offensive momentum entering this game as well after posting a 122 wRC+ over the last couple of weeks. The only downside here is the fact that the O’s bullpen has been an area of strength for this team (2.98 xFIP L2Wks, ranks 2nd) and Baltimore had an off day yesterday, so the reserve arms should be fresh.

BAL Bullpen Rating: 8/10

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Jorge Polanco | Sneaky Bat: Jose Miranda

Houston Astros vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), LAA

The ‘Stros are rocking a 126 wRC+ over the last two weeks (2nd in MLB) with a lofty .219 team ISO in that span as well. They always seem to be a bit more potent at home and Lorenzen is a guy who has shown some struggles on the road this season. In 29.1 IP on the road, Lorenzen has come away with a 6.14 ERA and just a 15.0% kRate. Expect these Astros bats to make plenty of contact tonight, though they could continue to be without a few of their key contributors -- Yordan Alvarez (head, DTD), Jeremy Pena (mouth, DTD), and Michael Brantley (shoulder, 10-day IL). Regardless of whether Alvarez and Pena are on the field tonight, there are other bats in the lineup that can PRODUCE!

LAA Bullpen Rating: 5/10

Favorite HOU Bats: Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman (Yordan if he plays) | Sneaky Bat: Yuli Gurriel

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

Going back to Seattle for the low-owned stack today! Despite this being an obviously strong match-up for Seattle on paper (Kaprielian 5.88 ERA, 5.32 xFIP, 1.42 WHIP, 15.9% HR/FB Rate) folks still won’t look to roster them. Every Mariners bat currently has a pOwn under 10%, yet they’ve been a top 10 offense as of late and they typically play better at home as well. The Oakland bullpen (5.17 xFIP L2Wks, ranks dead last) also provides plenty of incentive to roll out some Mariners hitters.

OAK Bullpen Rating: 1/10

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Jesse Winker, Abraham Toro | Sneaky Bat: Cal Raleigh

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX

OF Giancarlo Stanton | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CLE

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), LAA

2B Brendan Rodgers | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

1B Christian Walker | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), SF

C Cal Raleigh | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

OF Alek Thomas | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

2B/3B Abraham Toro | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.1k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

OF Andrew McCutchen | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT

1B Jose Miranda | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

C Carson Kelly | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Giancarlo Stanton | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CLE

Note: Remember to keep an eye on the weather in this game.

The rule of thumb with Stanton is to roll with him while he’s hot. And, we can confirm that he’s hot right now. Over his last seven games, Stanton has mashed for a .500 wOBA, .600 ISO, and 237 wRC+ alongside a 50% HardContact%. He’s hit five home runs in that stretch. Aaron Civale draws the honors of having to handle the Yankees lineup today. Against RHBs this season, Civale is allowing a .400 wOBA, .226 ISO, and 1.64 HR/9 Rate. He’s not giving up much hard contact to righties, just 28.4% HC%. But, then again, Stanton is not your typical hitter and he’s capable of creating a 110+ mph exit velocity off of about any pitcher in baseball. Let’s see a Stanton bomb today!

Best Giancarlo Stanton HR Prop Odds: +255 (Caesars)

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Lance Lynn OVER 5.5 Strikeouts | +120 (PointsBet) | 2.0 Units

As mentioned in the DFS pitcher section, Lynn may have a barely above average 23.3% kRate through his three starts this season, but his 15.2% Swinging Strike Rate indicates his kRate *should* be closer to 30%. The Giants have a 25.3% kRate vs. RHPs in the last two weeks and if Lynn is going to continue handling a 100+ pitch workload (109 pitches thrown in his last start), then I love his chances of recording at least six Ks today, especially at plus-money odds.

Julio Rodriguez OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +110 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

JRod is a stud, simple as that. He’s on a tear right now and has successfully cashed in on this prop in seven of his last ten games. There is absolutely nothing scary about this match-up with RHP James Kaprielian (vs. RHBs: 6.15 ERA, 5.08 xFIP, .321 opp wOBA) and a downright awful Oakland A’s bullpen.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Best of luck out there today, everyone!