Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

MLB Thursdays are often going to set up a bit differently from most days and today is no exception. With some teams having an off day and others on a getaway day and playing in the afternoon, we’ll have a smaller main slate on the board this evening.

A couple of quick notes for this slate:

DraftKings advertises a “five-game” main slate today, but the CWS @ NYY game is the second leg of a doubleheader, and players will not accrue any fantasy points. So, DO NOT roster any White Sox or Yankees players by mistake… unless you want some guaranteed goose eggs!

FanDuel will kick off its main slate with the inclusion of the DET @ PHI game which begins at 6:05 ET.

For the purposes of today’s newsletter, the primary focus will land on the four mutually shared games between DK and FD. We’ll keep things relatively short and sweet with the newsletter today. Friday will bring forth a mammoth 13-game slate so, if small slates aren’t your thing, you’ll only have to wait 24 hours for that next huge slate to roll around. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

DET @ PHI (6:05 ET): Remember that this game is on the FanDuel main slate, so it’s worth tracking. There is a moderate chance this is another game that gets called off due to air quality issues -- not guaranteed, but possible. We should know their intentions to play, or not play, well ahead of the scheduled first pitch.

BOS @ CLE (7:10 ET): Cooler temps with light winds blowing IN from left.

NYM @ ATL (7:20 ET): Temps in the mid-80s at first pitch with 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left.

CHC @ LAA (9:38 ET): Winds OUT to center around 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $12k, FD: $11.4k | vs. NYM

Another Strider day lands on the calendar and, as we’re all well aware of by now, he’ll be in auto-consideration for DFS lineups today. No other pitcher on the slate comes close to Strider’s 40.6% kRate and 19.8% SwStr% -- and he combined a strong 2.97 ERA, 2.83 xFIP, and 1.00 WHIP to those elite strikeout figures. Strider also averages +30.1% more FPPG at home, and in 108.0 career IP at Truist Park, he owns a minuscule 2.50 ERA, 2.17 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, .173 opp AVG, and 41.1% kRate.

The match-up with the Mets is not an ideal one. Strider throws either a 4-seamer or slider on around 95% of his pitches. Against those two pitch types (vs. RHPs), the Mets have a .338 wOBA (ranks 7th) and 20.0% kRate (3rd lowest). In 79 PA versus the current Mets roster, Strider has accounted for a .275 opp AVG, .366 wOBA, and 30.4% kRate -- so this is one team that he has struggled against. But it’s worth noting that, against RHPs in the last two weeks (341 PA), the Mets are hitting just .219 with a subpar .306 wOBA and 96 wRC+. They may also be without their best power hitter in Pete Alonso (wrist/day-to-day). Even with Justin Verlander on the mound for the Mets, the Braves (-190 ML) step in as the heaviest favorites on the slate. Don’t expect a ceiling game out of Strider today but it should be another solid outing.

Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.1k | vs. CHC

Detmers has been a frustrating guy to roster in DFS this season. On the one hand, he offers great strikeout potential (26.4% kRate, 13.8% SwStr%). On the other hand, he owns a slate-worst 1.54 WHIP, a high .338 opp wOBA, and a less-than-ideal 9.3% Walk Rate. In his defense, Detmers has been the victim of some notable bad luck. He’s got a huge .377 BABIP going against him this season, which is 100 points higher than his .277 BABIP in 2022 and still significantly higher than his career .307 BABIP. So, some positive regression is due in that regard, and his 4.05 xFIP is over a run better than his actual 5.15 ERA. He’s also been a bit better at home where he averages +21.2% more FPPG.

The match-up against the Cubbies is a fairly solid one. The Cubs have been a top-10 offense against LHPs this season, but over the last two weeks (138 PA vs. LHPs), they rank 23rd in AVG, 22nd in OPS, 22nd in wOBA, 18th in ISO, and 24th in wRC+ while striking out at a high clip (25.4% kRate). It’s still not an ideal spot as the Cubs do own a .366 wOBA (ranks 5th) versus Detmers’ primary pitch mix of 4-seamers, sliders, and curveballs. But the hope here is that the Cubs continue to struggle offensively and Detmers continues to put up strong strikeout numbers while seeing a bit more “luck” on balls in play fall in his favor.

Matt Dermody (LHP), BOS | DK: $4k, FD: N/A | @ CLE

To state the obvious, this is a “DraftKings only GPP SP2” play. Dermody, a 32-year-old lefty, only has 27.1 MLB innings under his belt, and he hasn’t been very effective in that time (5.60 ERA, 5.17 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, 18.2% kRate, 2.30 HR/9). However, the bulk of those lackluster results (22.1 IP) came back in 2017 when Dermody was with the Blue Jays organization. This start will be Dermody’s 2023 MLB debut but he’s been fairly solid in Triple-A this year: 44.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 3.95 xFIP, 1.34 WHIP, 24.4% kRate. Far from great numbers, but not bad.

Against LHPs this season, the Guardians rank 28th or worst in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ -- and dead last with a 26.1% HardContact%. They don’t strike out a ton (19.1% kRate vs. LHPs, 4th lowest) but they’re also just not an overly dangerous offense in general. For a $4,000 punt play, Dermody is worth some DraftKings GPP consideration. It could easily backfire, but Dermody could also go out there and pitch five or six solid innings while picking up a handful of strikeouts. The cooler conditions with winds blowing in at Progressive Field (#1 most pitcher-friendly ballpark in 2023) also make for a solid pitching environment.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11.1k | @ TOR

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: N/A, FD: $10.8k | vs. DET (FD Main Slate Only)

Justin Verlander (RHP), NYM | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.4k | @ ATL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

+ Angels: 4.8 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Smyly has been solid this season, but he averages -40.0% less FPPG on the road, and he’s posted a poor 4.98 xFIP in away games this season while seeing a major drop in his strikeout rate (16.3% kRate away, 27.3% kRate at home).

+ Against LHPs this season, the Angels rank 6th in AVG, 6th in OPS, 5th in wOBA, and 4th in wRC+.

+ Angel Stadium has been the #9 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season, and there will be some 10 mph winds blowing out toward center field tonight.

-/+ Based on their 4.10 xFIP, the Cubs have had an above-average bullpen this season; however, over the last two weeks, they have an MLB-worst 1.85 WHIP paired with a poor 5.56 ERA, 4.60 xFIP, and 1.59 HR/9 Rate.

- Smyly has excelled at limiting hard hit balls (30.7% HardHit%) and high exit velocities (86.3 mph avg exit velo).

- Smyly’s .286 opp xwOBA ranks 2nd among this slate’s starting pitchers.

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Brandon Drury

Bargain Bat: Gio Urshela

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), NYM

+ Braves: 4.7 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ On a small slate, we can’t expect the Braves to go too low-owned, but I have to imagine most folks won’t be jumping at the chance to roster players against Verlander -- 5-of-9 ATL bats have an 8% pOwn% or lower.

+ Verlander is having a very lackluster season by his standards: 4.25 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, 20.5% kRate, 8.7% SwStr%.

+ The Braves have been a top three offense vs. RHPs in the last two weeks (372 PA): .294 AVG (ranks 3rd), .853 OPS (2nd), .362 wOBA (3rd), .221 ISO (2nd), and 126 wRC+ (3rd) -- their 21.2% kRate in that span is also the 9th lowest.

+ Nice hitting conditions in Truist Park (#10 most hitter-friendly ballpark) with warm weather and 10 mph winds blowing out toward left field.

+/- Based on their 4.43 xFIP, the Mets have had the 7th worst bullpen this season, though, they have been pitching better as of late (3.77 xFIP L2Wks).

- It’s still Justin Verlander and there’s no guarantee he’s going to continue pitching below his standards.

- In 64 PA vs. Verlander, the current Braves roster has a .219 AVG, .238 wOBA (.193 xwOBA), and 29.7% kRate.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley

Bargain Bat: Marcell Ozuna

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), NYM

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CLE

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

OF Nick Castellanos, PHI | DK: N/A, FD: $3.4k | vs. Tyler Holton (LHP), DET (FD Main Slate Only)

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CLE

2B Andres Gimenez, CLE | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Matt Dermody (LHP), BOS

C Francisco Alvarez, NYM | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), NYM

OF Taylor Ward, LAA | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

1B Josh Naylor, CLE | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Matt Dermody (LHP), BOS

3B Gio Urshela, LAA | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

OF Jo Adell, LAA | DK: $2.5k, FD: N/A | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

2B/3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

The Home Run Calls of the Day contest will return NEXT week! Be sure to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and keep an eye for future HRCotD tweets & RT for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Not loving the board with the games on this slate so we’ll hold off on the PrizePicks play today -- back at it tomorrow!

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!