Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Baseball Tuesday has arrived and we’ve got a spicy 12-game slate on our hands! This main slate has a really strong balance between a great selection of pitching options and a high amount of viable offensive stacks. There will also be little concern over any significant weather impacts, which is always welcomed on a massive slate. Let’s see if we can connect the dots and solve today’s MLB DFS puzzle! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

OAK @ PIT (7:05 ET): 5-10 mph winds OUT to right/center.

CWS @ NYY (7:05 ET): It’s possible that some afternoon rain will linger into the early innings but no major issues are expected. 10-15 mph winds mostly a bit left to right, a bit OUT to right.

LAD @ CIN (7:10 ET): 5-10 mph winds blowing OUT to center. Temps near 80 degrees at first pitch. Quality hitting conditions in a strong hitter’s park.

BOS @ CLE (7:10 ET): 10-15 mph winds IN from left with temps in the low-to-mid 60s. Strong pitching conditions in a pitcher’s park.

NYM @ ATL (7:20 ET): Some late afternoon rain could spark a late start but it’s not overly likely. Temps near 90 degrees at first pitch with ~10 mph winds blowing a bit OUT to left, a bit right to left.

SF @ COL (8:40 ET): Looks like some brief patches of rain could roll over Coors Field this evening leading to a possible delay of some sort. A PPD isn’t really on the table so, worst case, the starting pitchers may be affected should a middle-inning delay be needed. I doubt we’d want any exposure to either of these SPs (J. Brebbia & D. Lamet) anyhow so there’s no major DFS impact.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.3k | vs. OAK

There is no honor in constantly picking on the little guy but, hey, we’re not really hurting anyone by going back to playing “any competent pitcher versus the Oakland A’s.” In this case, Mitch Keller has been much more than competent; he’s pitching like a certified ace at the moment. Keller has been excellent essentially all season outside a couple of early road starts against the Reds and Cardinals. However, if we look at his eight most recent outings dating back to April 21st (51.0 IP), Keller has procured a 3.00 ERA, 2.47 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, .219 opp AVG, and a 33.2% kRate. The 27-year-old right has simply been dealing lately.

There is not much that needs to be said about the A’s at this point, but just to drive home how bad they’ve been, here are their splits versus RHPs over the last two weeks (342 PA): .178 AVG, .505 OPS, .232 wOBA, .074 ISO, 48 wRC+, and 26.6% kRate. PNC Park has been the #7 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season and the Pirates step in as massive -280 ML favorites against the 12-50 A’s. Keller has been priced up at this point but he represents a huge amount of safety on this slate.

Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.7k | vs. CWS

Schmidt is a bit of a wild card but, aside from a shelling courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays, he’s been sharp over his last five starts. The Rays have been beating up most pitchers they face so if we section off Schmidt’s other four recent starts which came against the A’s, Reds, Orioles, and Mariners, we’ll see that he has posted a sterling 2.08 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP, .225 opp AVG, 25.0% HardContact%, and a 27.6% kRate.

Admittedly, it’s a little disingenuous to outright exclude the Rays in that recent sample size and showcase Schmidt’s numbers, which largely came against lower-quality offenses. However, that’s exactly what the White Sox have been lately -- a low-quality offense. In the last two weeks versus RHPs, they have eked out a meager.212 AVG, .588 OPS, .258 wOBA, .108 ISO, 60 wRC+, and 26.3% kRate. Essentially, they have been only marginally better than the Oakland A’s offense in recent weeks. The White Sox also have the 4th lowest wOBA (and 2nd lowest xwOBA) this season against Schmidt’s primary pitch mix, which has featured sweepers, sinkers, cutters, and curveballs on 97.7% of his pitches. So, while Schmidt isn’t the sort of pitcher we can roll out with confidence against stronger offenses, he should be in line for a quality outing against Chicago today.

Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.3k | vs. SEA

Musgrove’s 2023 campaign got off to a bit of a rocky start but he has stitched together a pair of quality starts in his last two outings (@ NYY and @ MIA). In those games, Musgrove allowed a single run across 12.1 IP (0.78 ERA) and 12 total hits and walks (0.97 WHIP). His 21.3% kRate this season is fairly pedestrian but he’s priced so far down now that it isn’t as if we need him to rack up 8+ Ks to return value. He’ll also be back at home at the very pitcher-friendly Petco Park where Musgrove owns a career 2.87 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, .223 opp AVG, and 26.9% kRate across 36 games (210.0 IP).

Musgrove draws a Mariners opponent that has been surprisingly bad offensively as of late. Their splits versus RHPs over the last two weeks (297 PA) are nothing to be afraid of: .199 AVG, .273 wOBA, 75 wRC+, and 26.9% kRate. In 41 PA versus Musgrove, the current Mariners roster has just a .205 AVG, .293 wOBA (.269 xwOBA), and 26.8% kRate. Musgrove projects well from a FPT/$ standpoint and the Padres will check in as moderate -135 ML favorites this evening.

Other Pitchers to Consider 🤔

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $11k, FD: $11.1k | vs. HOU

Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10k | vs. NYM

Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI | DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k | @ WAS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

• San Francisco Giants vs. Dinelson Lamet (RHP), COL

• Colorado Rockies vs. John Brebbia (RHP)/Sean Manaea (LHP), SF

Non-Coors Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

• + Dodgers: 5.7 implied runs (ranks 1st among non-Coors teams).

• + Weaver has been unimpressive through his eight starts this season, posting a subpar 5.36 ERA, 4.22 xFIP, .373 opp wOBA, 19.0% HR/FB Rate, and 44% HardHit%.

• + The Dodgers have been a top-five offense vs. RHPs this season, ranking 3rd in OPS, 3rd in wOBA, 1st in ISO, 4th in wRC+, and 2nd in HardContact%.

• + Great American Ballpark has ranked as the #9 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season, and #3 hitter's park over the last three seasons -- warm weather and 5-10 mph winds blowing out to center will make GABP an even stronger hitting environment today.

• +/- Based on their 4.38 xFIP, the Reds have had the 10th worst bullpen this season, however, they’ve also given up just 21 HRs this season (ninth fewest).

• - Even with a Coors Field match-up on the slate, the Dodgers may still end up as the highest-owned stack of the day -- six LAD hitters in the projected lineup have a 13+% pOwn%.

Favorite LAD Bats: JD Martinez, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy

Bargain Bat: Miguel Vargas

Texas Rangers vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

• + Rangers: 5.1 implied runs (ranks T-3rd among non-Coors teams).

• + Liberatore, a 23-year-old lefty, only has 45.2 IP at the MLB level but, in that time, he has posted a lackluster 5.72 ERA, 4.98 xFIP, 1.64 WHIP, 45.6% HardHit%, and 17.5% kRate.

• + The Rangers have been excellent against LHPs over the last month (296 PA), posting a .319 AVG, .892 OPS, .383 wOBA, .185 ISO, 44.1% HardContact%, and 148 wRC+.

• + The Rangers are averaging 7.04 runs/gm at home this season.

• + Globe Life Field has been the #4 most hitter-friendly park this season and the #1 ranked park in adjusted home run factor.

• + The Rangers have been outstanding with RISP: .338 AVG, .940 OPS, .395 wOBA, .218 ISO, and 155 wRC+.

• -/+ The core Rangers bats are pricey but are also not expected to carry much ownership today.

• - Based on their 3.86 xFIP, the Cardinals have had the 6th best bullpen this season.

Favorite TEX Bats: Marcus Semien, Josh Jung, Corey Seager

Bargain Bat: Robbie Grossman

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

• + Cubs: 5.1 implied runs (ranks T-3rd among non-Coors teams).

• + 8-of-9 hitters in the projected CHC lineup have a 10% pOwn% or lower.

• + Anderson has a slate-worst 6.06 xFIP this season paired with a 5.47 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, and .368 opp wOBA.

• + The Cubs have been a top-10 offense vs. LHPs this season, ranking 8th in AVG, 5th in OPS, 5th in wOBA, 7th in ISO, and 5th in wRC+.

• + Over the last two weeks, the LAA bullpen has the 7th highest xFIP, 10th highest WHIP, and 5th highest HR/9 Rate.

• + Angel Stadium has been the #8 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

• - Anderson has allowed a low 85.0 mph average exit velo over the last 30 days (90th percentile) alongside a low 21.6% HardContact%.

• - The Cubs have struggled a bit more against LHPs over the last two weeks, posting a .302 wOBA and 88 wRC+ (both metrics rank 21st).

Favorite CHC Bats: Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki

Bargain Bat: Yan Gomes

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Hayden Wesneski (RHP), CHC

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.9k | vs. John Brebbia (RHP)/Sean Manaea (LHP), SF

OF JD Martinez, LAD | DK: $5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

3B Josh Jung, TEX | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

C/OF Blake Sabol, SF | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Dinelson Lamet (RHP), COL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B LaMonte Wade Jr., SF | DK: $4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Dinelson Lamet (RHP), COL

2B/3B Owen Miller, MIL | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), BAL

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

OF Eddie Rosario, ATL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

OF Jack Suwinski, PIT | DK: $3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

SS Ezequiel Duran, TEX | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

2B/OF Ji Hwan Bae, PIT | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

OF Robbie Grossman, TEX | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

1B Luken Baker, STL | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

1B/OF Jake Bauers, NYY | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

SS Tucupita Marcano, PIT | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

The Home Run Calls of the Day contest will return NEXT week! Be sure to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and keep an eye for future HRCotD tweets & RT for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Corbin Carroll MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

Giancarlo Stanton MORE than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!