Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Welcome back for another week of MLB chaos! Monday will set us up with a mid-sized seven-game main slate; keep in mind that the action will begin a little earlier than usual with a 6:40 ET main slate start time! It’s a very “meh” slate for pitching but that is usually going to lead to more viable offensive stacks and we even have a couple of games with double-digit over/unders. As far as seven-game slates go, I’m liking how this one sets up overall. Let’s make an “EZ day” out of this one. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

OAK @ PIT (7:05 ET): 5-10 mph winds OUT to right.

CHC @ SD (9:10 ET): Winds near 10 mph blowing OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10k | vs. DET

Nola steps in as the most expensive pitcher on today’s slate despite underperforming considerably through his 12 starts this season. Nola’s swinging strike rate is down this season and he’s posting a very average 21.3% kRate. His 4.70 ERA and 4.24 xFIP also toe the line of mediocrity. But there is some good news that will make Nola worth targeting in DFS today. He’s pitching at home today where he averages 35.3% more FPPG. Citizens Bank Park, not normally known as a “pitcher’s ballpark” has actually been the 4th most favorable pitching environment this season based on 2023 park factor rankings. Nola is also allowed a low 88.3 mph average exit velocity this season, which ranks him 19th among all qualified MLB starters.

The largest enticement for Nola today will be his match-up with a bottom-10 offense in the Detroit Tigers. Nola has a five-pitch mix but primarily relies on his curveball, 4-seamer, and sinker which have accounted for 75.5% of his thrown pitches this season. Against those three pitches (vs. RHPs) the Tigers own a .218 AVG (lowest in MLB) and .303 wOBA (3rd lowest). The Tigers also come in with bad form against RHPs. In the last two weeks against righties, they’re batting just .216 with a .289 wOBA, 83 wRC+, and a relatively high 24.7% kRate. In their projected lineup, Detroit has just two hitters with a wOBA above .306 vs. RHPs this season and there are quite a few strikeout-heavy bats toward the back of their order. The Phillies (-240 ML) are the heaviest favorites on the slate and, while it doesn’t seem like a slam dunk play, Aaron Nola has some strong potential for a ceiling game today.

Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.4k | vs. OAK

Oviedo has not been consistently effective this season but if you look at his recent starts, he’s faced a fairly brutal schedule. Within his last seven outings, five starts have come against the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Orioles, D-Backs, and Rangers -- all very strong offenses (four of which rank top 10 in wRC+ vs. RHPs this season). Oviedo has shown a strong ceiling with four starts of at least 23.9 DKFP/43 FDFP and he is inducing a slate-best 49.5% Ground Ball Rate. He’s also at home in the fairly pitcher-friendly PNC Park where he has averaged +21.0% more FPPG.

Of course, we all know the real reason why Oviedo should be on the DFS radar today… the 12-49 Oakland A’s are in town. The A’s have been one of the worst offenses this season but their recent numbers are particularly awful. Over the last two weeks against RHPs (341 PA), the A’s have posted a .170 AVG, .485 OPS, .224 wOBA, and 42 wRC+ -- ranking last in the MLB in each category. Their 27.9% kRate in that same span is also the 4th highest strikeout rate in the league. The Pirates (-180 ML) are the second-heaviest favorites on the slate, behind the aforementioned Aaron Nola and the Phillies. Worst case scenario, Oviedo shouldn’t burn you in any lineups and he’s in a strong position to pop off for around 25 DKFP/45 FDFP. We’ll take that upside given his current DFS salaries.

Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN | DK: $4.0k, FD: N/A | vs. MIL

We’ve got a highly intriguing prospect making his MLB debut today. Andrew Abbott, the Reds’ 2nd round pick from the 2021 draft, is Cincy’s top pitching prospect and a top 100 ranked prospect by both MLB.com and FanGraphs. He’s been posting video game strikeout numbers in the minor leagues and leads all MiLB pitchers in strikeouts, kRate, and K-BB% this season. In three starts (15.2 IP) in Double-A, Abbott accounted for an absolutely absurd 20.68 K/9 and 64.3% kRate. But, for those unaware, the Double-A level is experimenting with a “pre-tacked” baseball this season which can artificially inflate pitching statistics, specifically their strikeout numbers. However, in seven starts (38.1 IP) at the Triple-A level, Abbott still crushed it with a 12.68 K/9 and 34.8% kRate to go along with a 3.05 ERA, 3.58 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, and .193 opp AVG. The guy just has some devastating “stuff.”

There will still be the typical risks involved with rolling out an inexperienced pitcher making their major league debut, and Abbott certainly doesn’t receive any favors from making his first MLB start in the extremely hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark today. He will, however, draw a dream match-up against a Brewers team that has been arguably the worst offense in baseball against lefty pitching. On the season, Milwaukee ranks dead last in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. LHPs and their 29.3% kRate is easily the highest in the MLB as well. As is typically the case with debuting pitchers, Abbott won’t be in today’s FanDuel player pool. But he will be an extremely enticing option on DraftKings where he’s priced at the stone (pitcher) minimum of $4,000. Barring any blow-up innings, Abbott should be expected to handle a typical starter’s workload and cover at least five innings and his strikeout upside is worth the risk alone.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Blake Snell (LHP), SD | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.5k | vs. CHC

Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9k | vs. KC

Mike Mayers (RHP), KC | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.1k | @ MIA (DK Preferred)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Texas Rangers (LHBs Preferred) vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

• + Rangers: 5.4 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

• + Wainwright only has five starts (26.1 IP) under his belt this season but the 41-year-old veteran has been showing his age with a slate-worst 6.15 ERA paired with a 5.51 xFIP, 1.71 WHIP, and 12.9% kRate (5.9% SwStr%).

• + Wainwright has been particularly bad against LHBs: .400 AVG, .475 wOBA, .291 ISO, 2.29 WHIP.

• + The Rangers have been extremely hot at the plate with a .403 wOBA, .212 ISO, and 161 wOBA over the last week.

• + The Rangers plated 28 combined runs in their last two games and are now averaging a ridiculous 7.15 runs/gm at home this season.

• + The Rangers have been the best offense in the MLB with RISP: .337 AVG, .941 OPS, .395 wOBA, .219 ISO, and 155 wRC+.

• + Globe Life Field has been the #1 home run ballpark this season, even better than Coors Field.

• - Based on their 3.90 xFIP, the Cardinals have had a top-10 bullpen this season.

• - The core Rangers bats will be pricey and some will carry some very high ownership.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe | Bargain Bat: Leody Taveras

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

• + Pirates: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-6th on the slate).

• + Sears has been Oakland’s best starter but he has posted some rough numbers when pitching away from the very pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum: 31.2 IP, 5.97 ERA, .335 opp wOBA, 2.27 HR/9 Rate.

• + The Pirates have been a slightly above-average team vs. LHPs: .265 AVG (ranks 9th), .749 OPS (14th), .328 wOBA (13th), and 105 wRC+ (15th).

• + A big positive for any team facing Oakland is receiving some innings against their bullpen, which has posted an MLB-worst 6.16 ERA, 5.44 xFIP, and 1.59 WHIP this season.

• + The Pirates have been swinging the bat well as of late -- over the last week, they’ve put up a .291 AVG, .351 wOBA, and 119 wRC+ (all top-four rankings in the MLB in that time).

• + There are plenty of affordable bats in this Pirates lineup.

• -/+ PNC Park has been the #5 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season but there will be some helpful 5-10 mph winds blowing out to right field today.

• - The Pirates are averaging just 3.96 runs/gm at home this season.

Favorite PIT Bats: Andrew McCutchen, Connor Joe, Bryan Reynolds | Bargain Bat: Rodolfo Castro

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR

• + Outside of Yordan Alvarez (26% pOwn%), all other Astros bats have a <10% pOwn%.

• + Astros: 5.3 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate).

• + Alek Manoah has been extremely hittable this season and, across his 12 starts, he has put up a poor 5.46 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, .375 opp wOBA, and a slate-worst 5.99 xFIP.

• + Manoah has been worse at home this season: 27.2 IP, 6.83 ERA, 6.53 xFIP, .306 opp AVG, .430 opp wOBA, 2.06 WHIP, and 2.28 HR/9 Rate.

• + The Astros have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs over the last month, ranking 7th in AVG, 9th in OPS, 9th in wOBA, 10th in ISO, and 5th in wRC+.

• - Based on their 3.87 xFIP, the Blue Jays have had a top-five bullpen this season.

• - The Rogers Centre has been the #9 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena | Bargain Bat: Jake Meyers

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Adam Wainright (RHP), STL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

3B Nolan Arenado, STL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Marin Perez (LHP), TEX

OF George Springer, TOR | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Brandon Bielak (RHP), HOU

OF Jake Fraley, CIN | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Julio Teheran (RHP), MIL

OF Nick Castellanos, PHI | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Joey Wentz (LHP), DET

OF Andrew McCutchen, PIT | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

OF Bryan De La Cruz, MIA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Carlos Hernandez/Mike Mayers (RHPs), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B/OF Whit Merrifield, TOR | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Brandon Bielak (RHP), HOU

2B/3B Owen Miller, MIL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

OF Esteury Ruiz, OAK | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT

2B Rodolfo Castro, PIT | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

OF Leody Taveras, TEX | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

1B/OF Connor Joe, PIT | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

OF Jesus Sanchez, MIA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Carlos Hernandez/Mike Mayers (RHPs), KC

3B Maikel Garcia, KC | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

OF Joey Wiemer, MIL | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

1B Luken Baker, STL | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), TEX

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Keep an eye out on the @LineStarApp Twitter for today’s “Home Run Calls of the Day” tweet!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Corey Seager MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

Aaron Nola LESS than 5.5 Hits Allowed

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!