Today's Top DFS Plays & Prop Bets from your #1 Companion for DraftKings, FanDuel, & Yahoo!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

We’ve got another splendid evening of baseball lined up but, as Thursdays often go, things are structured a bit unconventionally today. Nothing too crazy, but if you’re playing on DraftKings, keep in mind that the seven-game main slate will start up earlier than usual at 6:05 ET. On FanDuel, the main slate excludes the two games in the 6:00 ET window (ATL @ PHI, NYY @ HOU) and will begin at the more typical start time of 7:05 ET. As usual, the primary focus of the newsletter will land on the mutually shared games between DK and FD but I’ll likely sprinkle in some “DK main slate only” plays in here as well. The July 4th weekend is right around the corner so let’s have a day and light this slate up!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

No delay/PPD threats on this slate!

ATL @ PHI (6:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Mid-80s throughout this game with 5-10 mph winds blowing OUT to right.

CIN @ CHC (8:05 ET, 10 O/U): Warm with 15 mph winds blowing OUT to left at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field. Nice weather boost for the bats in this game.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.4k | vs. OAK

Quick flow chart check:

Are the Oakland A’s playing?

If yes, does the opposing pitcher have a pulse and at least one arm that operates in a throwing motion?

If yes, feel free to consider said pitcher for DFS purposes.

/end analysis

You don’t need me to tell ya to play Gilbert against the A’s and he’s most likely going to be around 50% owned on both sites tonight. But, for the sake of making a case for him, he’s been rock-solid this season (2.44 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, 24.9% kRate) and even better at home where he has put up a 2.27 ERA, 3.02 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, and 26.3% kRate. He’s worked through at least six full innings on 100+ pitches in four consecutive games and the A’s have a league-worst .260 wOBA against RHPs in the last two weeks with a high 24.2% kRate. The Mariners (-230) are by far the heaviest favorites on the slate and this is a clear spot for a potential Gilbert ceiling game.

Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN | DK: $8k, FD: $9k | @ CHC

There are zero ‘safe’ pitcher plays in the middle/value price ranges today but Ashcraft is the guy who sticks out to me the most. The weather at Wrigley Field is going to be a little dangerous (warm + 15 mph winds blowing out) but, fortunately for Ashcraft, he’s a guy who forces a ton of ground balls. Through seven starts in his rookie campaign, he has produced a 57.5% GB% -- in Triple-A this year he was forcing a whopping 71.4% GB%. That should help negate some of those strong hitting conditions. Ashcraft’s kRate only sits at a meager 15.8% but he did just strike out eight batters in his most recent outing (@ SF) while working through eight full innings on 104 pitches. He certainly showed more K upside throughout his time in the minor leagues and, in his defense, in five of his seven MLB starts he has faced opponents who rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of lowest kRate vs. RHPs. The Cubs have a 23% kRate vs. RHPs this season, the 11th highest. Ashcraft has also held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in five of his seven starts.

Also Consider:

*Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $10k, FD: N/A | vs. ATL

*Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.2k, FD: N/A | @ PHI

Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $8.4k | @ PIT

*DraftKings Main Slate Only

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Matt Wisler (RHP) + Rays Bullpen

LHP Jeffrey Springs, who has been excellent this season, was initially lined up to start for the Rays tonight but it seems he had an emergency family matter to attend to. As a result, Matt Wisler will serve as the Rays opener while LHP Ryan Yarbrough is expected to operate as the bulk reliever. Wisler has been fine out of the bullpen and has posted a 2.83 ERA across 35.0 IP but he also has an awful 5.12 xFIP which indicates some regression is due. Yarbrough, who was just recalled from Triple-A, has simply been bad all-around, coming away with a 5.65 ERA, 5.56 xFIP, and 1.53 WHIP in 28.2 MLB innings this season. The rest of the Rays bullpen has been mediocre at best this season. So, I’ll be happy to take a shot on some Blue Jays stacks today against a bunch of bullpen arms. Over the last month, the Blue Jays have been lights out, particularly at home where they’re posting an MLB-best .291 AVG, .382 wOBA, and .234 ISO with a 145 wRC+.

TB Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, George Springer | Sneaky Bat: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

Rays/Jays game stack? Hey, it might be something to keep in mind today when constructing lineups. The Rays are going with the full platoon strategy and they’ll be rolling out eight right-handed bats in their lineup. That may spell bad news for Kikuchi. Against RHBs this season, Kikuchi has a 5.36 ERA, .412 wOBA, 1.86 WHIP, and 2.36 HR/9 Rate. Those numbers get drastically worse when looking at his last five starts vs. RHBs: 10.38 ERA, .580 wOBA, 2.38 WHIP, 6.20 HR/9 (!!!). While I don’t always agree with managers rolling out these massive platoon lineups… this seems like the right call. Kikuchi has not pitched for more than 4.2 innings in any of those recent five starts so expect plenty of action from the Blue Jays bullpen. Toronto’s bullpen has pitched an MLB-high 56.0 innings in the last two weeks and in that time they’ve allowed a league-worst .292 AVG and 1.70 WHIP with a 6.11 ERA.

TOR Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite TB Bats: Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Wander Franco | Sneaky Bat: Vidal Brujan

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Adrian Martinez (RHP), OAK

I’m seeing some love go towards Adrian Martinez today and I’m not sure I’ll follow suit there. Martinez had a nice MLB debut way back on May 10th when he threw 5.1 scoreless innings… against Detroit. He was called back up from Triple-A today. In 13 Triple-A starts this year (64.0 IP), his results have been very pedestrian. Good strikeout potential (26.4% kRate) but everything else is very underwhelming: 5.63 ERA, 4.63 xFIP, .270 opp AVG, 1.41 WHIP, 1.83 HR/9, 24.5% HR/FB Rate. The Mariners offense is not elite by any stretch but I foresee Martinez having a noticeably more difficult time pitching against any MLB team that *isn’t* the Detroit Tigers. The A’s bullpen provides some generous match-ups as well.

OAK Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez | Sneaky Bat: Cal Raleigh

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Adrian Martinez (RHP), OAK

*OF Giancarlo Stanton | DK: $5.3k, FD: N/A | vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU

*OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $5.1k, FD: N/A | vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

3B Brandon Drury | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

C Alejandro Kirk | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. TB Bullpen

C Willson Contreras | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

SS Wander Franco | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

OF Christian Yelich | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

OF Bryan Reynolds | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

*DraftKings Main Slate Only

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Oneil Cruz | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

*1B Matt Olson | DK: $3.9k, FD: N/A | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

OF Jesse Winker | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Adrian Martinez (RHP), OAK

1B/2B Isaac Paredes | DK; $3.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

1B Joey Votto | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. TB Bullpen

OF Andrew McCutchen | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

SS Nico Hoerner | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

OF Rafael Ortega | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

1B Daniel Vogelbach | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

*DraftKings Main Slate Only

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/2B Isaac Paredes | DK; $3.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

There is no nice way to say it… Yusei Kikuchi has been an absolute gas can lately and has surrendered multiple home runs in four of his last five games. Against RHBs (like Paredes) in those five games, Kikuchi has a 10.38 ERA, .580 wOBA, 2.38 WHIP, 6.20 HR/9, and a 47.4% HR/FB Rate. The home run numbers are simply off the charts bad. Paredes has been swinging a hot bat in recent weeks and has blasted out seven home runs in his last 20 games. He’s not particularly known as a power hitter but he is boasting a .340 ISO this season with an impressive 23.3% HR/FB Rate. The Rogers Centre has also ranked as the third-best home run ballpark for right-handed hitters this season. While his best chance to go yard will come in his two or three at-bats against Kikuchi, that Blue Jays bullpen has been giving up some dingers as well.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Isaac Paredes OVER 0.5 RBI | +160 (DraftKings) | 2.0 Units

I’ll go double dipping with my home run call and roll with Paredes to pick up at least one RBI today as well -- and, hey, if he homers he just cashes this prop without even needing anyone else on base. He’s batting fifth today, which is always a nice spot in the order to see some likely RBI opportunities. Yusei Kikuchi has simply been terrible against RHBs lately and he’s going to have to work through eight Rays righties today. The Toronto bullpen has been putting a ton of runners on as well (1.70 WHIP L2Wks). Loving this prop at +160 odds.

Logan Gilbert OVER 5.5 Strikeouts | -155 (BetMGM) | 2.5 Units

Gilbert has recorded at least six Ks in three straight games and four of his last five. He’ll be on the mound at home tonight where his kRate has jumped up a touch to 26.3% and he’s allowing less than one runner per inning on base (0.98 WHIP) so he should be able to pitch deep into this game and give himself ample opportunity to fan six-plus Oakland A’s hitters. The A’s have a lofty 25% kRate vs. RHPs when playing on the road this season, the sixth-highest in baseball.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

🍆 LineStar Community DONG Calls 🍆

Best of luck out there today, everyone!