Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

The final day of June will provide us with plenty of MLB action with a 12-game main slate waiting in the wings. For a 12-game slate, the pitching selection isn’t outstanding but we’ll still have some quality options to choose from. On the flip side, there is no shortage of viable stack targets with 13 teams owning a ≥4.6 implied run total. Let’s kick off the weekend with some MLB profits! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

MIA @ ATL (7:20 ET): Hot and humid with 5-10 mph winds blowing OUT to left.

LAD @ KC (8:10 ET): Chance for some scattered storms in the KC area to spark a delay of some sort but seems like they’ll be able to get the game in regardless. Temps are at, or near, 100 degrees (!) throughout the game with 10+ mph winds blowing OUT to left/center at times.

DET @ COL (8:10 ET): May see another late start here if some rain lingers a bit too long but no PPD worry at this time. It’s still Coors Field but not the best hitting conditions here with cooler temps in the 60s and 5-10 mph winds blowing IN from left/center.

NYY @ STL (8:15 ET): There might be some problematic storms that pop up around/over the park during this game. It’s tough to tell this far out but we’ll need to keep an eye on the forecast for this game later in the day. Temps in the upper-90s at the scheduled first pitch.

ARI @ LAA (9:38 ET): 10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB | DK: $11k, FD: $11k | @ SEA

McClanahan had a bit of a scare in his last outing when he was forced to exit during the 4th inning due to back tightness. The good news is that he has received a full week of rest and following a problem-free bullpen session over the weekend, he’s not expected to face any limitations tonight. While the ceiling games have not been as plentiful for McClanahan this season, he continues to be one of the most steady and reliable arms in baseball. Prior to the previous start that got cut short, McClanahan had put up at least 17.1 DKFP/30 FDFP in 14-of-15 starts and at least 20.1 DKFP/37 FDFP in 12 of those outings. He’s just an ultra-reliable ace who boasts a 2.32 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 26.7% kRate, and an elite 15.6% SwStr% on the season.

For DFS purposes, we’ll really like, perhaps even love, the match-up that McClanahan draws against the Mariners. While Seattle has been hitting for average against lefties (.291 AVG L30Days) with above-average run production (108 wRC+ L30Days), they’ve also posted an MLB-high 28.7% kRate vs. LHPs L30Days. McClanahan also utilizes the changeup and curveball as his primary putaway pitches. Seattle has a huge 31.1% kRate against those pitches (from LHPs) this season. The Mariners are being pinned with a slate-low 3.4 implied run total as well. You’ll be shelling out a pretty penny for the Rays’ ace, but McClanahan brings a ton of safety to lineups this evening.

Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.7k | vs. BOS

Longtime MLB DFS players should be well aware of Berrios’ tendency to pitch much better at home than on the road. And he’s at home today. While his home/away splits have not been quite as drastic this season, they are still noticeable…

Home: 6 GS, 36.1 IP, 2.48 ERA, 3.69 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, .221 opp AVG, 24.5% kRate

Away: 10 GS, 58.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, 4.26 xFIP, 1.30 WHIP, .260 opp AVG, 20.6% kRate

On the other side, the Red Sox have been a team that generally underperforms when playing on the road away from the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. They’ve averaged 5.52 runs/gm at home this season but just 4.13 runs/gm on the road. Against RHPs on the road, Boston ranks 21st in AVG, 25th in OPS, 25th in wOBA, 22nd in ISO, and 23rd in wRC+ while striking out 23.5% of the time. So, with this Berrios play, we’ll be looking for his positive home splits to play well off of Boston’s lackluster road splits. I wish Berrios was a bit cheaper but those salaries should keep his ownership low today.

Michael Soroka (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.4k | vs. MIA

There are a ton of landmines among the lower-priced pitchers today so we’ll be taking a gamble here by spotlighting Soroka. As a Braves fan, I can tell you a lot of people are excited about this game tonight because it will be Soroka’s first start at home since August 3rd of 2020. He looked far from polished in his first big league starts this year (@ OAK, @ ARI), procuring an 8.38 ERA, 6.37 xFIP, 1.86 WHIP, and 10.4% kRate in 9.2 IP. After his last MLB start, Soroka was optioned back down to Triple-A to work on some things and he’s been great since then. Across three starts and 19.0 IP since being optioned, Soroka posted a 1.42 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and struck out 18 batters. Before a couple of catastrophic Achilles injuries that kept him out of baseball for multiple seasons, Soroka was shaping up to be a stud and even finished 6th in NL Cy Young voting in his 2019 rookie season. So, we know the pedigree is there for the now 25-year-old hurler, but some rust has needed to be knocked off.

Soroka won’t have an easy task ahead of him against a Miami Marlins team that just continues to exceed expectations. However, it seems as if the Marlins' offense either destroys opposing pitchers or they struggle mightily, without much in between. They’ve scored four runs or fewer in six of their last nine games, and two runs or fewer in four of those games. Against RHPs over the last month, they rank mid-pack with a 101 wRC+ and they’ve hit into a ton of ground balls (47.6% GB%) which Soroka is proficient in inducing (58.8% GB% in his 9.2 IP this season). And, while it may be more of a testament to how hot the Braves' offense has been rather than what is expected of Soroka tonight, Atlanta is the second-heaviest favorite on the slate with -190 ML odds. It’s a big gamble but if you’re hunting for a worthwhile SP who should be around 5% owned in GPPs, Soroka may be able to surprise some folks tonight.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.2k | @ PIT

Jon Gray (RHP), TEX | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10k | vs. HOU

Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.8k | @ KC

Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.7k | vs. MIN

Osvaldo Bido (RHP), PIT | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.8k | vs. MIL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Detroit Tigers vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), DET

Non-Coors Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Bryan Hoeing (RHP), MIA

+ Braves: 5.5 implied runs (ranks 1st among non-Coors teams).

+ In his career of 47.2 IP, Hoeing has put up a lackluster 4.91 ERA, 4.59 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, and 17.1% kRate.

+ Hoeing has not performed well on the road at the MLB level: 7.00 ERA, 4.91 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, .374 opp AVG, 14.6% kRate, and 2.00 HR/9.

+ Hoeing has thrown either sinker or slider on 83.3% of pitches this season -- Braves vs. RHP sinker/slider mix: .335 wOBA (5th), .350 xwOBA (2nd), .182 ISO (3rd), and 32 HRs (T-2nd).

+ Braves have been the best offense vs. RHPs over the last month, ranking 1st in each of the following metrics: .309 AVG, .940 OPS, .399 wOBA, .255 ISO, 150 wRC+, and 49 HRs.

+ Truist Park has been the #8 most hitter-friendly park this season & great hitting conditions tonight -- hot, humid, and 5-10 mph winds blowing out to left.

+ Braves are averaging 7.7 runs/gm against Miami this season (seven games).

- Hoeing is allowing a low 3.5% Barrel% this season and has only surrendered two HRs in 35.0 IP.

- Marlins bullpen has been above average on the season and lights out over the last two weeks: 2.61 ERA, 2.87 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP, and 27.4% kRate.

- Braves bats are pricey -- cheapest hitter on DK is $4,200.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Michael Harris II

Bargain Bat: Marcell Ozuna

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

+ Dodgers: 5.3 implied runs (ranks 2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ Alec Marsh is making his MLB debut and, while he has posted a 27% kRate between Double-A/Triple-A this season, he has also combined for a dreary 4.52 ERA and 1.52 WHIP.

+ Dodgers vs. RHPs on the road L2Weeks: .306 AVG, .840 OPS, .361 wOBA, and 127 wRC+.

+ Dodgers are averaging 5.56 runs/gm on the road.

+ Kauffman Stadium has been the #6 hitter’s park this season & some 100-degree temps will help fly balls sail further.

+ Royals bullpen L2Weeks: 5.80 ERA & 1.51 WHIP -- the Royals may also be without four of their top relievers who pitched in yesterday’s game (Chapman, Barlow, Clarke, and Hernandez).

- Dodgers are coming off of a late game last night in the series finale versus the Rockies -- also, the “Coors Field hangover” effect could rear its ugly head.

- Dodgers have accounted for a mediocre 98 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month.

Favorite LAD Bats: Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith

Bargain Bat: David Peralta

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

+ All hitters in the projected Giants lineup have a <5% pOwn%.

+ Giants: 4.9 implied runs (ranks T-6th among non-Coors teams).

+ Carrasco has been pretty dreadful this season: 10 GS, 48.0 IP, 6.19 ERA, 5.27 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, 44.3% HardHit%, 21.6% HR/FB Rate, 15.1% kRate.

+ Carrasco has put up some particularly awful reverse splits vs. RHBs: 8.20 ERA, .299 AVG, .410 wOBA, 2.73 HR/9.

+ Giants are averaging 5.44 runs/gm on the road (vs. 4.26 runs/gm at home).

+ Giants MLB rankings vs. RHPs on the road: 4th in OPS, 4th in wOBA, 2nd in ISO, 5th in wRC+, 3rd in runs scored.

+ The Mets bullpen has an MLB-worst 5.71 xFIP L2Weeks & their best reliever (David Robertson) likely won’t be available after pitching last night.

- Giants bats are a little cold, ranking 21st in wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks.

- Citi Field is the #7 least hitter-friendly park this season.

Favorite SF Bats: Joc Pederson, Thairo Estrada, JD Davis

Bargain Bat: Lamonte Wade Jr.

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Bryan Hoeing (RHP), MIA

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

OF/SS Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Alec Marsh (RHP), KC

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

3B Nolan Arenado, STL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), ATL

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

3B JD Davis, SF | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), NYM

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Spencer Torkelson, DET | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

C Jake Rogers, DET | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), DET

OF Harrison Bader, NYY | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

OF Ezequiel Duran, TEX | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

OF Matt Vierling, DET | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

1B Andrew Vaughn, CWS | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

2B/OF Andy Ibanez, DET | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Andrew Benintendi, CWS | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

SS Joey Wendle, MIA | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), ATL

OF Henry Davis, PIT | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Osvaldo Bido MORE than 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts

Shohei Ohtani MORE than 0.5 Runs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!