Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Following a couple of massive slates over the last two days, THAT INCLUDED THE 24th PERFECT GAME IN MLB HISTORY, we’ll be dialing it waaay back down to a modest five-game main slate featured for this evening’s action. With Coors Field still on the ticket, only two teams owning a <4.7 implied run total, and 4-of-5 games featuring over/unders of 9.0+ runs, we can go ahead and assume that pitching will not be this slate’s strong suit. It could be one of those days where you just eat some chalk at pitcher and differentiate lineups with your hitters/stacks. It may not be the sexiest of slates but we’ll look to crack the code today before moving onto tomorrow’s hefty 12-game Friday main slate! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

MIL @ NYM (7:10 ET): 10 mph winds OUT to left.

PHI @ CHC (8:05 ET): Low-end chance of some late-inning rain.

LAD @ COL (8:40 ET): Could see some wet weather in the middle/later innings so we’ll add a bit of delay risk here.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM | DK: $11k, FD: $9.7k | vs. MIL

Due to a lack of premiere pitching depth on this five-gamer, Mad Max is all but guaranteed to check in with the highest ownership on the slate. No one is ever a certified lock in MLB DFS, but Scherzer might just be some borderline necessary chalk today. An argument could be made for Chris Bassitt (DK: $9.6k, FD: $8.9k), who has struggled of late, but Scherzer is easily the most talented arm we have to choose from. Much like some of the other pitchers in the Mets’ starting rotation, Scherzer has been more reliable at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field. Scherzer’s home/away splits this season look like this:

Home: 21.1 IP, 2.95 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .211 opp AVG, 0.84 HR/9, 26.2% kRate

Away: 49.1 IP, 4.38 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .264 opp AVG, 1.82 HR/9, 26.2% kRate

The Brewers will once again represent a very positive match-up for an opposing righty. Against RHPs over the last month, Milwaukee is hitting just .208 with a .631 OPS, .282 wOBA, 74 wRC+, and a hefty 27.4% kRate. Scherzer has notched at least eight strikeouts in five of his last six starts and, given the Brewers’ tendency to swing and miss against righties, Scherzer is going to make for a high-floor/high-ceiling DFS play. The Mets are also very heavy -195 ML favorites so we should expect a win to come Scherzer’s way as well… unless the Mets offense just decides to do that thing where they fail miserably at the plate.

JP France (RHP), HOU | DK: $8k, FD: $8.7k | @ STL

I went back and forth when deciding which pitcher to spotlight out of the mid-range. We aren’t blessed with any fantastic options but, ultimately, I’m looking for JP France to be the most reliable candidate from this price range. The rookie right-hander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 7-of-9 starts this season. He’s riding a streak of four consecutive quality starts and has covered at least six full innings in five straight. While it isn’t a massive sample size, France has also looked really solid in his five road starts where, in 30.0 IP, he has posted a 2.40 ERA, 4.43 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, .236 opp AVG, and 21.0% kRate while averaging 17.7 DKFP/33.6 FDFP. Nothing eye-popping, but solid results in hostile environments nonetheless.

Despite their struggles in the win/loss column, the Cardinals have been clicking fairly well on offense, so it’s not an ideal match-up from France’s perspective. In the last two weeks versus RHPs, the Cardinals have ranked 13th in AVG, 8th in OPS, 5th in wOBA, 7th in ISO, 6th in wRC+, and have posted a mid-pack 22.5% kRate. The Cardinals have also been stronger at home where they average 5.38 runs/gm. So expectations must be tempered if you’re sliding France into lineups but his ability to pitch fairly deep into games and churn out quality starts makes him an “intriguing enough” DFS option.

Keaton Winn (RHP), SF | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | @ TOR

This will mostly be a DraftKings SP2 play. When you get a guy priced at the pitcher minimum of $4,000 (who is expected to operate as a traditional starter and not just as an opener), there’s always going to be some appeal. Keaton Winn is poised to make his first career MLB start but he has made three previous appearances out of the bullpen this season, working as a long reliever and covering 3.0 IP, 4.0 IP, and 5.0 IP. In his 12.0 IP, Winn has procured a 3.75 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, 18.8% kRate, and 61.8% Ground Ball Rate. Winn is also likely due for some positive strikeout regression based on his 10.7% SwStr%, which ranks second among SPs on this slate. In 41.1 IP at Triple-A Sacramento this year, Winn put up an impressive 27.1% kRate and 11.10 K/9. His 4.35 ERA/4.60 xFIP in Triple-A is also fairly solid given the fact that he plays in the more offensively-centric PCL.

Winn will catch a Blue Jays team that is in a bit of a slump against right-handed pitching. Over the last two weeks vs. RHPs, Toronto has a .258 AVG (12th), .703 OPS (20th), .306 wOBA (20th), .142 ISO (20th), 95 wRC+ (20th), and 26.5% kRate (4th highest). So, there are plenty of underwhelming offensive results in there for the Jays, as of late. Winn hasn’t thrown more than 60 pitches in any of his three big league outings so we can’t expect him to pitch too deep into today’s game. But, at $4,000, there are 42 hitters who are more expensive than Winn. If he can squeeze out a 12-15 DKFP kind of performance, that’ll be perfectly acceptable. I expect a popular (DK) approach today will be to pair Winn with Scherzer and load up on Coors Field bats — Dodgers bats being the main targets.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR | DK: $9.6k, FD: $8.9k | vs. SF

Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.5k | @ CHC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

Non-Coors Stack

Houston Astros vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

+ Astros: 5.3 implied runs (T-1st among non-Coors teams).

+ It’s been a tough season for Waino in his age 41 season: 6.56 ERA, 5.62 xFIP, 1.82 WHIP, 10.9% kRate, and .410 opp wOBA.

+ In many regards, the Astros have been a top-10 team vs. RHP in the L2Weeks, ranking 9th in OPS, 9th in wOBA, 6th in ISO, 7th in wRC+, and their 18.0% kRate has been the 3rd lowest.

+ While Busch Stadium has traditionally been a more pitcher-friendly park, it has ranked 4th in adjusted park factor this season so offense has been plentiful here.

+ Astros rank 2nd in stolen bases vs. RHPs over the last month with 26 SBs.

- Based on their 3.99 xFIP, the Cardinals have had an above-average bullpen this season.

- The Astros don’t have many (healthy) lefty bats to throw at Wainwright, who has had some awful splits versus LHBs: 7.32 ERA, 2.24 WHIP, .398 AVG, .486 wOBA, .323 ISO, 2.29 HR/9.

Favorite HOU Bats: Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz

Bargain Bat: Chas McCormick

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM

+ Every Brewers hitter in the projected lineup has a 4% pOwn% or lower.

+ It’s super risky but, on a small slate, stacking against Scherzer (who will likely be 40+% owned) represents a massive amount of leverage.

+ Scherzer has shown some poor reverse splits vs. RHBs this season: 5.11 ERA, .298 AVG, .379 wOBA, .274 ISO, 2.19 HR/9 Rate.

+ Citi Field is one of the least hitter-friendly ballparks but some 10 mph winds blowing out to left could negate some of the park-related disadvantages.

+ The Mets bullpen has largely been a disaster -- their 4.58 xFIP on the season is the 4th worst mark in the MLB -- their 5.52 xFIP over the L2Weeks ranks dead last in the MLB.

+ With the struggling Mets bullpen in mind, even if Scherzer pitches well, a mini Brewers stack could emerge in the later innings.

-/+ There’s no need to force four or five-man Brewer stacks -- two or three-man stacks would be plenty enough to differentiate lineups on this slate.

- To avoid any redundancy, refer back to the Max Scherzer write-up in the pitching section for all of the reasons why stacking the Brewers would be a bad idea -- the gist being that MIL has been terrible vs. RHPs (and Scherzer is pretty damn good).

- Brewers: 3.8 implied runs (ranks last on the slate).

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, William Contreras, Willy Adames

Bargain Bat: Joey Wiemer

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), COL

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. JP France (RHP), HOU

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

OF George Springer, TOR | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Keaton Winn (RHP), SF

OF Joc Pederson, SF | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

OF Nick Castellanos, PHI | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Nolan Jones, COL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), MIL

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

OF David Peralta, LAD | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), COL

1B/2B Brendan Donovan, STL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. JP France (RHP), HOU

C Yainer Diaz, HOU | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

OF Jordan Walker, STL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3k | vs. JP France (RHP), HOU

OF Brandon Marsh, PHI | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Chas McCormick, HOU | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

1B Jared Young, CHC | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

3B Nick Madrigal, CHC | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Kyle Tucker MORE than 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Ezequiel Tovar MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

🆕 Props AI 🆕

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!