Today's Top DFS Plays & Prop Bets from your #1 Companion for DraftKings, FanDuel, & Yahoo!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Rundown

Let’s get set to gear up for a nice seven-game midweek main slate, shall we? This slate provides some strong pitching options along with some appealing offenses to stack up, including a Coors Field match-up. Surely the Dodgers won’t disappoint at Coors for three days in a row, right? Heh. Surely not. Let’s have some fun with this one and bank some cash along the way!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

There is not much noteworthy weather to report on for this slate. There are no major rain threats, every ballpark will see typical temperatures for late June, and there are no super impactful winds to speak of. A rain delay at some point in the Coors Field match-up is possible but it isn’t particularly likely and there would be no postponement risk even if they do have to stop play.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.5k | vs. CWS

As per usual on an Ohtani pitching day, he’ll provide the highest K upside on the slate thanks to his 33% kRate, 14.3% Swinging Strike Rate, and 31.8% CSW% (called + swinging strike %). His last poor outing came on June 2nd against the Yankees when he lasted only three innings after giving up 8 H (3 HRs) and 4 ER while striking out only two batters. Some rumors suggest Ohtani has either been tipping his pitches at times this season or some signs were being stolen. He switched to the pitch-com system following that game against NYY. Since switching to pitch-com, Ohtani is 3-0 with a 0.43 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, .129 opp AVG, and 32.9% kRate. He’s at home today where he tends to pitch a bit better (+23.7% more FP). While the White Sox offense did pop off last night and has been swinging the bats better in general lately, they represent a mostly neutral match-up for Ohtani today. The Angels (-190) are heavily favored while the White Sox possess a slate-low 3.3 implied run total.

Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.8k | vs. BOS

This is a head-scratching price over on DK. Out of 14 starts this season, Manoah has only had two poor outings and those two performances came against the Yankees and on the road against the Guardians. His 22.8% kRate is right around league average but he’s been masterful at simply limiting base runners (0.96 WHIP) and runs (2.05 ERA). He has also only allowed six home runs in 87.1 IP this year equating to a low 0.62 HR/9 -- 0.39 HR/9 at home. The Red Sox are a tougher match-up but Manoah pitched well against them earlier this season and he should be able to hold his own once again in this spot today.

Andre Pallante (RHP), STL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.2k | vs. MIA

This is pretty much a DraftKings-only GPP SP2 punt play. Super risky but Pallante has a chance to return around a 20 DKFP result. Most of his appearances have been out of the bullpen this season but this will be his fifth start and he reached a season high 90 pitches (and 6.0 IP) in his most recent outing. Pallante doesn’t offer much K upside at all (15% kRate) but he produces a ton of ground balls (62.7% GB%) and rarely allows a fly ball (17.6% FB%). The Marlins have a 46% GB% vs. RHPs this season, the fourth-highest in the MLB, so perhaps this is a match-up that could play into Pallante’s favor. If he can make it through five or six innings mostly unscathed, he can likely pick up three or four strikeouts along the way and potentially line himself up for the win (Cardinals are slight home underdogs at +105). Again, he’s risky, but 4x value is on the table for Pallante.

Also Consider:

Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA | DK: $10k, FD: $11k | @ STL

Kyle Wright (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.4k | @ PHI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Julio Urias (LHP), LAD

Other Stacks to Consider

Atlanta Braves vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

There will be no Acuna (foot) in the Braves lineup once again tonight but it’s still a nice spot for Atlanta to produce some offense. The Braves have been excellent against lefty pitching this season, boasting a 123 wRC+ (ranks 2nd), .350 wOBA (3rd), and .210 ISO (1st). They did some damage to Ranger Suarez earlier this season and, overall, he’s been a bit of a shaky starter this season while posting a 4.23 ERA, 4.15 xFIP, and 1.48 WHIP. Suarez has allowed a .359 wOBA to RHBs and he’ll face off with seven RHBs in the Braves lineup this evening. The Phillies bullpen has been trending up recently but they remain a fairly mediocre unit. They also used a few of their better relievers yesterday since the game was close going into the later innings.

PHI Bullpen Ranking: 5/10 (Average)

Favorite ATL Bats: Dansby Swanson, Travis d’Arnaud, Austin Riley | Sneaky Bat: Phil Gosselin

Cleveland Guardians vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), MIN

The Cleveland bats have been pretty quiet lately as they have not scored more than three runs in their last seven games. But their M.O. has pretty much been “boom or bust” for much of the season… perhaps this is a “boom” night. Dylan Bundy has been serviceable this season but he is far from consistent. He’s also shown some struggles on the road where he has come away with a 6.82 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, .315 opp AVG, and .383 opp wOBA in 34.1 IP. Despite pitching well against the Guardians over the first three games of this series, the Twins bullpen has been a fringe bottom 10 relief unit recently and they could be a bit overtaxed after pitching 26.0 innings over the last week (fourth-most in MLB in that span).

MIN Bullpen Rating: 4/10 (Below Average)

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez, Josh Naylor | Sneaky Bat: Steven Kwan

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

Hunter Greene has some tremendous strikeout potential (28.9% kRate) but he’s also no stranger to giving up some big hits. In fact, no other pitcher in baseball has allowed more home runs than Greene (20). Greene is also essentially a two-pitch guy. His 4-seamer (47.2% of pitches) and slider (43.2% of pitches) have made up over 90% of his arsenal. While the Cubs offense as a whole has not been great, they do have some guys who have done well against that specific pitch mix this season. Getting some innings against the Reds no good, very bad bullpen is also a bonus for the Cubs bats.

CIN Bullpen Rating: 2/10 (Awful)

Favorite CHC Bats: Rafael Ortega, Willson Contreras, Ian Happ | Sneaky Bat: Christopher Morel

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6.1k, FD: | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

SS Trea Turner | DK: $6k, FD: | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $5.6k, FD: | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $5.3k, FD: | vs. Kyle Wright (RHP), ATL

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.1k, FD: | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), MIN

3B Brandon Drury | DK: $5k, FD: | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

1B CJ Cron | DK: $4.8k, FD: | vs. Julio Urias (LHP), LAD

C Alejandro Kirk | DK: $4.7k, FD: | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

C Travis d’Arnaud | DK: $4.6k, FD: | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Ian Happ | DK: $3.7k, FD: | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF Christopher Morel | DK: $3.6k, FD: | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | DK: $3.3k, FD: | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Rafael Ortega | DK: $2.9k, FD: | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

1B Garrett Cooper | DK: $2.8k, FD: | vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

OF Yonathan Daza | DK: $2.7k, FD: | vs. Julio Urias (LHP), LAD

2B/OF Phil Gosselin | DK: $2k, FD: | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

3B/OF Jake Lamb | DK: $2k, FD: | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

SS Trea Turner | DK: $6k, FD: | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Going with a chalk bomb today with Trea Turner in Coors Field. Turner isn’t a prolific power hitter by any means but he has 11 HRs on the season and in 18 career games at Coors Field, he is hitting .361 with a .420 wOBA, .277 ISO, 164 wRC+, and has four HRs (one of which came in last night’s game). German Marquez has faced 104 RHBs at home this season and has surrendered eight HRs which has led to a very lofty 3.18 HR/9 Rate and 32.0% HR/FB Rate. Trea Turner has enough power in his bat to get under one and send it over the fence at Coors Field for the second consecutive day.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Andre Pallante to Record the Win: Yes | +360 (DraftKings) | 1.5 Units

It’s a bit of a risky bet here so I’m not going huge on it, but for reference, Pallante’s win prop is as low as +155 on other sportsbooks (PointsBet) so getting this at +360 is hard to pass up. After moving into the rotation out of the bullpen, this will be Pallante’s fifth start of the season. He has made it through at least 5.1 innings in his last three starts and threw a season-high 90 pitches last Friday. Of course, a starting pitcher only needs to make it through five innings to qualify for the win and Pallante should hit that 5.0 IP threshold today. Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara represents Pallante’s counterpart tonight, which is mostly why the Cardinals are slight +105 underdogs in this match-up. However, Miami is 0-5 in their last five trips to Busch Stadium and the Cards bats can certainly provide Pallante with some run support even in a tough match-up. The +360 odds for Pallante to go down as the winning pitcher are just too good to pass up.

Rafael Ortega OVER 0.5 RBI | +225 (DraftKings) | 1.5 Units

Secondary Bet: Rafael Ortega OVER 0.5 Hits | -170 (DraftKings) | 3.0 units

Ortega has been a very productive bat for the Cubs and, despite hitting at or near the top of the order, he has recorded an RBI in four consecutive games with two RBIs in three of those games. He’s hitting .348 in his last 20 games with 10 RBIs so I think we can feel good about the value on these +225 odds for him to get another RBI tonight. Hunter Greene almost exclusively throws heaters and sliders. Ortega has a .399 wOBA and .230 ISO against those pitches this season. For the much safer bet, go with Ortega to simply record a hit (-170). Greene does give up a ton of HRs so I also don’t mind Ortega’s HR prop odds at +675 (Caesars). Basically, I’m banking on a productive night for Ortega today… let’s hope he comes through.

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!