Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s time to kick the tires and light the fires! Every team in the MLB is in action on today’s colossal 15-game slate so hold onto your butts! This is a slate that quite literally has it all. Aces toeing the rubber? Check. Wily veteran starting pitchers priced in the mid-range? Sure there are. Young, talented hurlers with more affordable DFS price tags? Affirmative. A potent offense visiting Coors Field? You got it. Other non-Coors upside stack options? You betcha. Under the radar low-owned stacks that could pop? Absolutely. The weather also shapes up about as nicely as you could hope for when it comes to a 15-game slate and we’ll really only have a single match-up that holds notable postponement risk (MIL @ NYM).

We’ll soon be crossing the midway point of the season with every MLB team hitting 81 games played at some point this week. It’s been a surprising and eventful season up to this point so I can’t wait to see what the second half has in store! Let’s dive right into the chaos and see if we can crack the code today. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

SD @ PIT (7:05 ET): Low-end chance for a late start if some afternoon rain lingers around a bit too long. 5-10 mph winds OUT to left.

CIN @ BAL (7:05 ET): Another situation where a brief late start may be in order if some afternoon rain hangs around a bit longer than expected. We also can’t rule out a stray pop-up rolling over the park mid-game, similar to last night. The main point is that they should have no significant problems getting this game in.

MIA @ BOS (7:10 ET): Winds OUT to left at 10-15 mph in what is already a strong hitter’s ballpark.

MIL @ NYM (7:10 ET): This will be the riskiest game on the slate, weather-wise. The current forecast calls for about 50-60% storm coverage in the NY area during gametime and those storms may not be in any hurry to clear out. There’s also room for the forecast to change and things could shake out where they play without many, or any, issues. We’ll just have to see how things are trending closer to first pitch. Fortunately, with 14 other games on the slate, losing this one wouldn’t be a major blow. Mets fans may welcome a night off from baseball anyway.

MIN @ ATL (7:20 ET): Mid-80s throughout the evening with 10+ mph winds blowing OUT to left. Solid environment for hitters.

PHI @ CHC (8:05 ET): Winds IN from left around 5-10 mph at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field.

LAD @ COL (8:40 ET): 90 degrees at first pitch. Possibly the warmest temps I’ve noticed at Coors Field this season, for a non-day game at least.

CWS @ LAA (9:38 ET): 10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.2k | @ STL

It’s been a stellar season for Valdez who is nipping at the heels of Rays ace Shane McClanahan for the odds-on favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award. And, in some sportsbooks, Valdez is now the outright favorite (+270 to win the AL CYA on FanDuel, McClanahan, +360). Valdez leads all qualified MLB starters with a 2.82 xFIP this season to go along with a 2.27 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 26.7% kRate, and 57.2% Ground Ball Rate.

As memorable of a season as Valdez is having, the Cardinals are having one to forget. Their 32-45 record is the 5th worst in the MLB and they’re about as inconsistent as it gets offensively. They’ve been particularly bad against southpaw pitching lately. Over the last month vs. LHPs (182 PA), they’re hitting just .202 with a .563 OPS, .255 wOBA, .086 ISO, and 60 wRC+; only the Oakland A’s rate out worse against lefties in that span. While Valdez is undoubtedly the best lefty starter they’ve faced this season, it is worth noting that St. Louis ranks 2nd in xwOBA (vs. LHPs) against Valdez’s two primary pitches -- the sinker and curveball, which are pitches he throws nearly 75% of the time. They’ve also been more potent at home where they’ve averaged 5.26 runs/gm. All-in-all, those factors won’t be enough to keep me away from utilizing Valdez as a spend-up SP target on today’s slate. He’s been mowing down just about every team he’s faced up to this point and the Cardinals are just in atrocious form versus LHPs lately.

Yu Darvish (RHP), SD | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.3k | @ PIT

I don’t expect Darvish to fly too far under the radar today but I do believe the vast majority of SP ownership will reside on either the upper end of the salary range or on guys priced down closer toward the bottom. The results for Darvish have been wildly inconsistent recently and he has put up an ugly 7.27 ERA over the last month. However, he has clearly fallen victim to some major bad luck in that stretch based on his rock-solid 3.32 xFIP.

But this recommended play is more about the match-up. There may not be a more dormant offense in baseball than the Pittsburgh Pirates right now. Dating back to June 13th, the Pirates have lost 12-of-13 games while averaging a pitiful 2.3 runs/gm. In those two weeks, they’ve had 296 plate appearances versus RHPs, and they’ve been by far the worst offense against righties, posting a .162 AVG, .477 OPS, .220 wOBA, .075 ISO, 33 wRC+, and 24.0% kRate. Just horrific results. The Pirates surely won’t be this bad forever, but all signs point toward this being a prime “get right” spot for Darvish, who projects better than all other pitchers within his immediate price range.

Editor Note: Darvish has been scratched due to an illness

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.9k | vs. WAS

If you want to jam in any Coors bats or some other big sluggers, spending down at pitcher is going to be a necessity. He only has four MLB starts under his belt but Bryan Woo appears to be noticeably underpriced on DraftKings at $6,900. He was placed in one of the worst spots imaginable to make his MLB debut, on the road against the Rangers. However, in his three starts since, he has impressed with a 2.30 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 0.83 WHIP, .161 opp AVG, and a huge 35.0% kRate while averaging 21.8 DKFP/34.7 FDFP. Woo is the Mariners’ top pitching prospect and a top 100 overall MLB prospect so his recent success isn’t exactly a massive surprise. Within his arsenal, he has a plus 4-seamer that sits mid-90s, a solid big-league slider and sinker, and a plus changeup that he goes to occasionally. Overall, Woo has accounted for a 14.7% SwStr% which leads all pitchers on today’s slate.

The Nationals are a stubborn bunch when it comes to strikeouts and their 18.7% kRate vs. RHPs is the lowest in the MLB. However, they are a bottom-10 offense against RHPs by most key hitting metrics (OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+) and they have the second-fewest HRs against righties this season. T-Mobile Park has also graded out as the #1 pitcher’s park this year and Woo had arguably the best big league outing in his lone appearance at home thus far, posting a pitching line of 5.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, and 9 K on 91 pitches against the White Sox (25 DKFP/38 FDFP). The Mariners (-220 ML) are the second-heaviest favorites on the slate and, what Woo may lose out on in strikeout upside with this match-up, he could make up for with additional innings pitched plus a good shot at earning those win and quality start DFS bonuses.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $11.3k, FD: $10.8k | vs. CWS

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $11k, FD: $11k | vs. SF

Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.7k | vs. MIN

Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.2k | @ BAL

Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI | DK: $7k, FD: $9k | @ CHC

Jhony Brito (RHP), NYY | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.6k | @ OAK

Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE | DK: $5.9k, FD: $8.2k | @ KC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Connor Seabold (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

Non-Coors Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Rich Hill (LHP), PIT

+ Padres: 5.0 implied runs (ranks T-3rd among non-Coors teams).

+ Rich Hill has had some quality outings but, overall, he hasn’t been an imposing force on the mound and owns a so-so 4.34 ERA, 4.52 xFIP, 1.37 WHIP, and .358 opp xwOBA.

+ Padres have been a top-three offense vs. LHPs over the last month in many key metrics: .828 OPS (2nd), .355 wOBA (3rd), .227 ISO (2nd), 128 wRC+ (3rd), and 43.8% HardContact% (2nd).

+ Padres are averaging nearly a run more per game on the road (4.79 runs/gm away, 3.83 runs/gm home).

+ While a lack of offense has plagued the Pirates recently, their bullpen should also bear a big share of the blame -- PIT bullpen L2Wks: 9.08 ERA, 5.49 xFIP, 2.02 WHIP, .312 opp AVG, and 1.47 HR/9 Rate.

+ Padres have been gradually improving their offensive woes when they have RISP.

- The back of the Padres lineup is no stranger to providing very little production.

Favorite SD Bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Ha-Seong Kim

Bargain Bat: Trent Grisham

Cleveland Guardians vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

+ Guardians: 4.8 implied runs (ranks 6th among non-Coors teams).

+ Singer’s 92.6 mph average exit velo, 55.1% HardHit%, and .368 opp xwOBA are all the worst marks among today’s SPs.

+ Singer has allowed eight barreled balls L30Days (bottom 15th percentile).

+ The Guardians have quietly been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs over the last month: .291 AVG (2nd), .774 OPS (7th), .334 wOBA (7th), 114 wRC+ (8th), and 18.9% kRate (4th lowest).

+ Guardians average nearly +0.8 more runs per game on the road.

+ Based on their 4.84 ERA, 4.25 xFIP, and 1.46 WHIP, the Royals have had a below-average bullpen this season.

+ Kauffman Stadium has been the #6 most hitter-friendly ballpark.

- There is not a ton of power in this Cleveland lineup -- only three hitters in the projected lineup have a .130+ ISO vs. RHPs this season.

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan

Bargain Bat: Will Brennan

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Boston Red Sox vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

+ Every Red Sox bat in the projected lineup has a 6% pOwn% or lower.

+ Red Sox: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ Alcantara has been an uncharacteristically average pitcher this season, posting a 5.08 ERA, 4.18 xFIP, and 1.25 WHIP.

+ Alcantara has performed worse on the road (-34.1% less FPPG) and in 42.0 IP on the road this season, he owns a 5.36 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, .330 opp wOBA, and 17.7% kRate.

+ Red Sox have been excellent versus RHPs at home: .285 AVG (2nd), .825 OPS (2nd), .356 wOBA (2nd), .190 ISO (7th), and 117 wRC+ (5th).

+ Fenway Park has graded out as the #2 hitter’s park this season and there will be some helpful 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left field today.

- Based on their 3.89 xFIP, the Marlins have had a top-five bullpen this season.

- Ya never know when Alcantara may finally “figure it out” and begin pitching like his old self again.

Favorite BOS Bats: Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers, Mastaka Yoshida

Bargain Bat: Jarren Duran

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), PIT

C Will Smith, LAD | DK: $6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Conner Seabold (RHP), COL

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

3B/SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

OF George Springer, TOR | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Alex Wood (RHP), SF

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

2B Luis Arraez, MIA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Garrett Whitlock (RHP), BOS

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

1B/2B Brandon Drury, LAA | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

OF Randal Grichuk, COL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

OF Alex Verdugo, BOS | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

C Jonah Heim, TEX | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

1B Josh Naylor, CLE | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

OF David Peralta, LAD | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Connor Seabold (RHP), COL

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

OF Joey Wiemer, MIL | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF Will Brennan, CLE | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

2B/OF Andy Ibanez, DET | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), TEX

SS Jordan Westburg, BAL | DK: $2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Bryce Elder MORE than 30.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score

Will Smith MORE than 0.5 RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!