Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ll get the ball rolling on a new week of MLB action with a solid little six-game Monday slate! While this may not be a massive set of games, pound for pound, it offers up a great deal of offensive firepower alongside a quality selection of starting pitchers. Overall, it just sets up as a very balanced slate, and we should have a good time putting some lineups together today. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

CIN @ BAL (7:05 ET): Looks like some scattered storms may be around the BAL area this evening. That’ll bring some delay risk to the table if one makes its way over the ballpark. A PPD seems unlikely, but we’ll need to double-check the forecast closer to first pitch to see how things are shaping up. 5-15 mph winds blowing OUT.

MIL @ NYM (7:10 ET): More worry of some scattered storms here as well, perhaps with a bit more risk than BAL. Right now, it seems like it’s going to be a “decent chance for delay, PPD can’t be ruled out” sort of outlook. They could also play the entire game without any real issues. So, again, let’s just be sure to double-check this forecast once first pitch nears. Winds OUT to left at 10-15 mph.

MIN @ ATL (7:20 ET): Temps near 90 degrees at first pitch, humid with 10 mph winds mostly blowing OUT to left, a bit right to left. Boost to bats.

CWS @ LAA (9:38 ET): 10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $12.6k, FD: $11.3k | vs. MIN

Smaller slate + Strider day = big chalk. There’s no way around that even at his lofty DFS salaries but, if you’re worried about ownership on Strider, it won’t be too difficult to just differentiate lineups with your bats. With that out of the way, Strider is in a fantastic spot today even if he hasn’t been extremely sharp in recent outings. He’s still far and away the top strikeout pitcher on the slate with a 39.0% kRate and 19.6% SwStr%. And while his ERA has bloated up to 3.93, his 2.89 xFIP still ranks 2nd among all qualified MLB starters. He’ll also be back at home where he averages +25.5% more FPPG.

A major draw for Strider will be the opponent he’ll get to face. The Twins have, by far, the most strikeouts against RHPs this season with 617 Ks and an MLB-high 27.1% kRate. If you look at some hitters in their (projected) lineup, you’ll see plenty of guys with massive kRates versus RHPs -- Joey Gallo (38.9%), Michael A. Taylor (34.8%), Edouard Julien (33.3%), Byron Buxton (29.6%), and Willi Castro (29.6%) being the biggest strikeout victims. There is some merit in either lowering exposure or outright fading Strider today, but there’s also no question that he has the highest upside of any pitcher on the slate.

Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CWS

Detmers comes into tonight’s match-up with some major momentum. Over his last three starts (18.2 IP), Detmers has posted a 0.96 ERA, 3.11 xFIP, 0.86 WHIP, .215 opp wOBA, and 33.8% kRate. Detmers notched exactly eight strikeouts in all three of those recent starts and two games came against a pair of top-five offenses in the Rangers and Dodgers. Detmers also averages +36.6% more FPPG at home, which is where he’ll be toeing the rubber tonight, and he’s rocking a stout 31.1% kRate at Angel Stadium this season.

Detmers will receive a plus match-up against a White Sox offense that has a .286 wOBA (ranks 25th), 79 wRC+ (24th), and 25.7% kRate (8th highest) against LHPs over the last month. Chicago also has seven RHBs in their projected lineup -- that would bode well for Detmers who has displayed some strong reverse splits this season. Versus RHBs, Detmers has allowed a .299 wOBA, .104 ISO, 0.65 HR/9, and boasts a 29.9% kRate. If he can continue to keep up his recent momentum, Detmers could easily end the night as the top FPT/$ pitcher on the slate.

Colin Rea (RHP), MIL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7k | @ NYM

Note: Due to weather concerns, be sure to check up on the forecast before locking in any players from this MIL/NYM game.

It’s tough to put too much stock in this play but if you want to go far away from the SP chalk today, Colin Rea has some potential to work out (primarily as a GPP SP2 on DraftKings). Rea hasn’t been a consistent DFS asset, but he has gone out and posted some solid pitching lines throughout this season -- his best game probably coming against Baltimore on June 8th, where he threw five shutout innings, allowing just three hits, one walk, and posting eight strikeouts (24.9 DKFP/39 FDFP). Rea forces quite a few ground balls (45.4% GB%) and will be on the mound in a great pitcher’s park at Citi Field.

You never really know what this Mets offense is going to do but they have one of the worst MLB records in the month of June at 6-15, and they’ve been particularly anemic offensively versus RHPs at home over the last month (301 PA): .206 AVG, .609 OPS, .271 wOBA, .129 ISO, 80 wRC+, and 22.3% kRate. This isn’t a safe play but Rea is dirt cheap and has an avenue to a 20 DKFP/35 FDFP kinda night.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $11k, FD: $10.6k | vs. WAS

Justin Verlander (RHP), NYM | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.1k | vs. MIL (Weather concerns)

Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.6k | @ LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Brandon Williamson (LHP), CIN

Note: Keep an eye on the weather for this game.

+ Orioles: 5.3 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ In seven MLB starts (36.2 IP), rookie LHP Williamson owns a slate-worst 5.28 xFIP, 47.5% HardHit%, 1.96 HR/9 Rate, and 13.6% Barrel%.

+ Before being called up out of necessity, Williamson put up some poor results in his eight 2023 Triple-A starts spanning 34.0 IP: 6.62 ERA, 6.30 xFIP, 1.88 WHIP, and 1.85 HR/9.

+ Williamson has pitched poorly versus RHBs this season, allowing a .366 wOBA, .293 ISO, and 2.43 HR/9 Rate -- BAL has eight RHBs in their lineup today.

+ The Reds bullpen has been used heavily over the last three days (16.2 IP, most in MLB) and some of their top relievers will be unavailable to pitch today.

+ Orioles rank 8th with a 112 wRC+ vs. LHPs this season.

- Orioles have not been as explosive at home (4.47 runs/gm) compared to on the road (5.26 runs/gm).

- The Orioles have been a below-average offense vs. LHPs over the last month based on their 86 wRC+ in that span (ranks 21st).

Favorite BAL Bats: Anthony Santander, Austin Hays, Aaron Hicks

Bargain Bat: Jordan Westburg

Texas Rangers vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

+ Rangers: 5.0 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ Boyd has had some strong outings this season but has been fairly average overall: 5.37 ERA, 4.34 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, .320 opp wOBA.

+ In 89 PA vs. Boyd, the Rangers own a .410 wOBA and 18.0% kRate.

+ The Rangers return home following a six-game road trip -- they’re averaging an MLB-best 6.41 runs/gm at home this season.

+ The Rangers have been excellent vs. LHPs at home: .293 AVG (3rd), .833 OPS (4th), .361 wOBA (4th), and 131 wRC+ (3rd).

+ Glove Life Field ranks #1 in adjusted home run factor this season.

- Boyd has allowed a slate-low 35.6% HardHit%, averages +55.9% more FPPG on the road, and is coming off of a couple of strong outings (against the Twins and Royals).

- The Tigers bullpen has been very sharp lately -- over the last two weeks, they have posted a 2.44 ERA, 3.43 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, and 0.61 HR/9 Rate.

Favorite TEX Bats: Josh Jung, Jonah Heim, Adolis Garcia

Bargain Bat: Ezequiel Duran

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN

+ This may change, but eight ATL hitters currently possess a 7% pOwn% or lower.

+ Gray had a strong start to 2023 but he hasn’t been particularly sharp over his last four starts (20.2 IP): 3.92 ERA, 4.51 xFIP, 1.55 WHIP, .336 opp AVG, and 16.3% kRate.

+ Braves have been extremely hot at the plate in June, leading the MLB in runs (146), HRs (47), AVG (.308), OPS (.926), wOBA (.393), ISO (.243), and wRC+ (146).

+ Truist Park (#8 hitter’s park in 2023) will feature favorable hitting conditions with warm temps and winds blowing toward the outfield.

+ Braves: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 3rd on the slate).

- In 98 PA vs. Sonny Gray, the current Braves roster has a lackluster .217 AVG and .239 wOBA.

- Based on their 4.08 xFIP, the Twins have had an above-average bullpen this season.

- Core Braves bats are pricey.

Favorite ATL Bats: Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies

Bargain Bat: Eddie Rosario

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

3B Josh Jung, TEX | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Matthew boyd (LHP), DET

2B/SS Matt McLain, CIN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), BAL

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Brandon Williamson (LHP), CIN

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Starling Marte, NYM | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

OF Austin Hays, BAL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Brandon Williamson (LHP), CIN

OF Teoscar Hernandez, SEA | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

3B Jeimer Candelario, WAS | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

OF Ezequiel Duran, TEX | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

1B/3B Kevin Newman, CIN | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), BAL

OF Aaron Hicks, BAL | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Brandon Williamson (LHP), CIN

1B Mike Ford, SEA | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

SS Jordan Westburg, BAL | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Brandon Williamson (LHP), CIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Anthony Santander MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

Jonah Heim MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!