Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Another Friday arrives and brings along with it another hefty MLB slate. Ten games land on the main slate ticket today, and it’s sure to be a wild scene by night’s end. For such a big slate, pitching is a bit shabby from top to bottom. I’m not sure you can’t point at any one starting pitcher on this slate and confidently say “Yeah, he’s going to pitch a great game today.” Instead, it looks as if offense may reign supreme, and 14-of-20 teams currently possess an implied total of at least 4.5 runs. Coors Field is back on the menu as well with the Angels traveling to meet the Rockies. Be aware that some wet weather will threaten some east coast games, so keep an eye on forecast updates once we get closer to first pitch. Let’s get it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

SEA @ BAL (7:05 ET): As mentioned in the intro, several east coast games will have some wet weather in the forecast. Baltimore doesn’t look to possess high postponement risk, but a delay or late start could be in the cards as rain looks to clear the area around 7 o’clock ET.

NYM @ PHI (7:05 ET): The same weather system (expected to be) clearing in BAL around first pitch could move into Philly during the game. Delay or late start potential is here as well with some lower-end PPD risk.

TEX @ NYY (7:05 ET): The current forecast sets up for this game to start dry with rain potentially moving through in the later innings, or possibly just after the game is over. If the wet weather does arrive while the game is still going on, the hope would be that they play through it. So, not much PPD concern here, but there is a scenario where they do not get a complete game in.

MIL @ CLE (7:10 ET): Chance for a late start as some potential rain clears east around 7 o’clock ET.

Note: I won’t be ruling out any players from these games at this time, but we’ll need to see how things are shaping up closer to first pitch. Fortunately, all of these games are scheduled to start around the same time on the front end of today’s main slate.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shane Bieber (RHP), CLE | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.6k | vs. MIL

It’s been a strange season for Bieber in the strikeout department. He has seen his kRate steadily decline the past few years, from 41.4% in 2020, 33.1% in 2021, 25.0% in 2022, to 17.5% now in 2023. He just not getting as many swings and misses as he used to, yet his 10.1% SwStr% and 29.4% CSW% still indicate that he’s due for some positive strikeout regression. The good news is that Bieber will be pitching at home today where he averages +37.7% more FPPG and in 38.0 IP at home this season, he owns a 1.89 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .253 opp wOBA, and a slightly improved 19.4% kRate.

Bieber will draw a plus match-up against a fairly stagnant Brewers offense. In 307 plate appearances versus RHPs in the last two weeks, the Brewers own a feeble .188 AVG, .582 OPS, .260 wOBA, 59 wRC+, and a huge 28.8% kRate. Milwaukee also has a 28.3% kRate on the season against Bieber's primary putaway pitches (slider, cutter, and curveball). Progressive Field has been the #4 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season and the Brewers are being pinned with a low 3.7 implied run total (T-2nd lowest on the slate). So, while he has only had one really strong outing in his last handful of starts, Bieber looks like a decent upside option today.

Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.9k | vs. WAS

Musgrove sets up to be perhaps the highest-owned pitcher on this slate but he’s priced fairly and should bring a strong DFS floor to the table. He’s been sharp over his last five starts (29.1 IP), posting a 2.15 ERA, 3.71 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, and .259 opp wOBA. His 19.5% kRate in that span isn’t going to scream “upside” but what he lacks in K potential, he could make up for by pitching 6+ innings and grabbing those coveted win/quality start bonuses (SD -280 ML favorites today). Musgrove also has plenty of green in his statcast chart -- over the last month, he has allowed an average exit velocity of just 83.6 mph (95th percentile), an average distance of 120.2 feet (95th percentile), and he’s only allowed one barreled ball to go along with a minuscule 13.8% HardContact%.

Targeting the Nationals with opposing pitchers isn’t something I look to do often -- while they’re not a potent offense, they simply do not strike out much whatsoever. Washington has an MLB-low 18.6% kRate vs. RHPs this season, and they’ve driven that figure down to a 14.5% kRate over the last two weeks; that’s less than half the kRate of some ball clubs. Nonetheless, they remain firmly inside the bottom 10 for offensive rankings in most major categories and there is very little power within their lineup. Runs can also be hard to come by at Petco Park, the #2 most pitcher-friendly ballpark. If you’re hunting for GPP upside, perhaps pivot away from Musgrove who has a 39% pOwn% on both DK and FD. But if you’re content with around a 20 DKFP/35 FDFP score while letting your hitters provide the lineup upside, then Musgrove sets up as a worthy DFS target, particularly for cash games.

Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.4k | vs. HOU

As far as MLB debut performances go, Emmet Sheehan had one to remember last Friday. He pitched six no-hit innings against a quality Giants offense (before the Dodgers bullpen came in to blow it). He did issue a couple of walks and only struck out three hitters, but if we’re sifting through the lower end of pitcher salaries today, Sheehan may be worth a look (primarily as an SP2 option on DraftKings). It’s hard to place too much trust in minor league numbers, especially when it comes to pitchers in Double-A, which is the level that Sheehan was called up from last week. The reason is that they’re using a pre-tacked baseball in Double-A this year which can artificially inflate pitching statistics, particularly strikeout figures. With that in mind, in 12 games and 53.1 IP in Double-A this year, Sheehan put up a nutty 41.7% kRate and 14.85 K/9 to go along with a 1.86 ERA, 3.20 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, and .131 opp AVG.

The Astros have been far from a dominant offense this season and they’re still playing without their best power bat, Yordan Alvarez (oblique/IL). The Astros have posted a .314 wOBA (ranks 19th) and 100 wRC+ (19th) versus RHPs over the last two weeks and they’re creating just a 28.6% HardContact% (ranks 28th). They don’t strike out a ton, but their recent 21.0% kRate (L2Wks) against RHPs puts them around mid-pack in the MLB. Sheehan will be in the friendly confines of his home ballpark once again and the Dodgers are moderate -140 ML favorites. While there’s always some added risk entrusting an inexperienced pitcher in DFS lineups, Sheehan has some decent potential to pitch five or six strong innings tonight making him a viable SP2 option on DraftKings at his $6,500 price tag.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM | DK: $10.2k, FD: $9.9k | @ PHI

Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.3k | vs. OAK

Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.7k | @ CWS

Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.4k | vs. NYM

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Angels vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

Non-Coors Stacks

San Diego Padres (RHBs Preferred) vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

+ Padres: 4.7 implied runs (ranks 4th among non-Coors teams).

+ Corbin has not been a total gas can this season, but he has performed noticeably worse on the road (-41.3% less FPPG away).

+ In 33.1 IP on the road, Corbin has put up a 5.40 ERA, 5.01 xFIP, 1.74 WHIP, .385 opp wOBA, 2.43 HR/9 Rate, 26.5% HR/FB Rate.

+ Corbin has strong traditional splits and RHBs are hitting .321 against him with a .371 wOBA and .171 ISO.

+ Padres L2Wks: .348 wOBA and 123 wRC+ (both rank 2nd on the slate).

+ Padres vs. LHPs over the last month: .824 OPS (3rd), .352 wOBA (4th), .241 ISO (2nd), and 126 wRC+ (3rd).

+ Based on their 4.79 xFIP, the Nationals have had the 2nd worst bullpen this season.

- Padres are only averaging 3.70 runs/gm at home & Petco Park is the #2 least hitter-friendly ballpark.

Favorite SD Bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Gary Sanchez

Bargain Bat: Ha-Seong Kim

Toronto Blue Jays vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

+ Blue Jays: 5.3 implied runs (ranks 1st among non-Coors teams).

+ It’s only a 17.1 IP sample size, but Kaprielian has been awful on the road this season: 7.27 ERA, 6.50 xFIP, 1.96 WHIP, and .393 opp wOBA.

+ The A’s bullpen has been improving as of late, but their 5.35 xFIP on the season still ranks last in MLB -- 5.01 xFIP L2Wks ranks 26th.

+ Blue Jays have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs this season, ranking 5th in AVG, 9th in OPS, 9th in wOBA, and 4th in wRC+.

- The Blue Jays bats have been a bit stagnant as of late and their 90 wRC+ over the L2Wks ranks 20th.

- The Rogers Centre has not been a favorable hitter’s park and the Blue Jays are only averaging 4.19 runs/gm at home.

Favorite TOR Bats: George Springer, Bo Bichette, Daulton Varsho

Bargain Bat: Brandon Belt

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

+ All Giants hitters have an 11% pOwn% or lower.

+ Davies owns a slate-worst 7.11 ERA and 1.74 WHIP.

+ Davies has been particularly bad against LHBs: 8.35 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, and .383 opp wOBA.

+ Giants rank 7th in wOBA and 4th in wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month.

+ There are plenty of cheap bats in the Giants lineup.

-/+ Giants: 4.5 implied runs (ranks T-8th among non-Coors teams).

- D-Backs bullpen has been above average this season.

- Oracle Park has been the #10 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

Favorite SF Bats: Joc Pederson, Mike Yastrzemski, Thairo Estrada

Bargain Bat: Luis Matos

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.7k, FD: $5k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Wade Miley (LHP), MIL

OF George Springer, TOR | DK: $5.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

OF JD Martinez, LAD | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. JP France (RHP), HOU

3B/SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF Joc Pederson, SF | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

OF Nolan Jones, COL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $4k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

C Gary Sanchez, SD | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

2B Ha-Seong Kim, SD | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Starling Marte, NYM | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn, BAL | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

C Yainer Diaz, HOU | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

OF Luis Matos, SF | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), ARI

OF Tommy Pham, NYM | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

1B/OF Brandon Belt, TOR | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Brandon Belt MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Yainer Diaz MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!