Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

June 21st signals the official start of the astronomical summer and the longest day of the year! Depending on your preferred DFS site, Wednesday will provide us with a modestly-sized six or seven-game slate. The FanDuel slate will include the 6:40 ET match-up between the Phillies and Braves, though, be sure to keep an eye on the weather in Philly. For the purposes of this newsletter, the main focus will be directed at the six mutually shared games. This one could project as another fairly low-scoring slate due to the number of quality starting pitchers toeing the rubber today. Nonetheless, let’s try to solve the puzzle and put the right pieces together. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

ATL @ PHI (6:40 ET): FanDuel main slate only. Some light rain will look to threaten this game throughout its scheduled playing time. Might see a PPD or they may just try to play through a wet game since tomorrow’s forecast is looking dicey as well. 10+ mph winds blowing IN from right.

SEA @ NYY (7:05 ET): 10-15 mph winds IN from center.

OAK @ CLE (7:10 ET): Winds near 10 mph blowing IN from right/center.

BOS @ MIN (7:40 ET): Hottest game of the slate with temps in the upper-80s at first pitch. Good for bats but there will also be some 5-10 mph winds blowing IN from right to sort of balance things out.

TEX @ CWS (8:10 ET): Light winds OUT to right.

LAD @ LAA (9:38 ET): 10 mph winds OUT to center.

SD @ SF (9:45 ET): 10-15 mph winds OUT to left. Oracle Park is designed to mitigate wind impacts.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.6k | @ NYY

It looks as if we may see another low-scoring game in New York where this Mariners and Yankees match-up owns a slate-low 7-run over/under. Luis Castillo is going to draw some considerable attention on this small-ish slate, and rightfully so. He’s been very sharp over his last five starts (30.1 IP) where he has come away with a 1.76 ERA, 3.43 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, and 32.8% kRate while throwing over 100 pitches per game. Castillo has shown some poor road splits this season and averages -55.6% less FPPG away. However, two of his more recent starts came on the road against quality offenses (@ TEX and @ LAA) and Castillo posted rock-solid outings with DFS scores of 22.7 DKFP/43 FDFP and 22.2 DKFP/40 FDFP. Those 10-15 mph winds blowing in from center at Yankee Stadium will also help flyballs stay in the ballpark.

While the Yankees did tag up Seattle RHP George Kirby a bit yesterday, we can’t pretend as if three runs on eight hits is an offensive explosion and Kirby was still able to work through seven complete innings. We’ll once again refer to the Yankees' offensive splits versus RHPs since Aaron Judge last played on June 3rd. In that time, the Yankees are hitting .197 (ranks last) with a .601 OPS (29th), .263 wOBA (last), and 64 wRC+ (last). Castillo also has some strong BvP history versus the current Yankees roster: 111 PA, .198 AVG, .251 wOBA, and 28.8% kRate. The Yankees are being pinned with a slate-low 3.1 implied run total and, despite some concerns about his road splits, we can still feel pretty strongly about rolling Castillo out in lineups.

Garrett Whitlock (RHP), BOS | DK: $7k, FD: $6.6k | @ MIN

Whitlock hasn’t been a consistent starter this season but he has shown quality upside, particularly when viewed in relation to his low DFS salaries. He’s coming off of back-to-back games against the Rockies and Yankees where he posted 25.6 DKFP/46 FDFP and 23.5 DKFP/44 FDFP. Out of his seven starts in 2023, he’s had three poor outings and two of those came against the vaunted Rays offense. On the season, his so-so 4.38 ERA is backed up by a solid 3.91 xFIP, he has the lowest walk rate on the slate (4.4% BB%), and while his 20.9% kRate is just below league average, Whitlock’s 12.8% SwStr% indicates some positive strikeout regression is due.

The Twins have been an above-average offense versus RHPs over the last two weeks -- their 113 wRC+ in that span ranks 13th. However, they do provide plenty of strikeout upside for opposing pitchers thanks to a 28.2% kRate L2Wks and an MLB-high 27.0% kRate on the season. Unfortunately, in Whitlock’s case, the Twins do stack up well against his primary pitches. Whitlock has thrown three pitch types, the sinker, changeup, and sweeper, on 99.1% of his pitches this season. Minnesota ranks 9th in wOBA versus that pitch mix to go along with a not-drastically-high 22.0% kRate. However, if we just section off the changeup and sweeper splits (which make up around half of Whitlock’s pitches), the Twins’ wOBA drops to .297 and their kRate rises to 30.4%. Overall, it’s not a perfect match-up, but Whitlock is cheap and offers a moderate amount of DFS upside.

Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE | DK: $5.7k, FD: N/A | vs. OAK

Some injuries to the Guardians’ pitching staff will lead to the MLB debut of a highly touted right-handed pitching prospect, Gavin Williams. Williams is rated as Cleveland’s No. 1 prospect and the No. 16 overall prospect in baseball by MLB.com. He’s been dominant in the minor leagues, posting a 2.39 ERA and 81:24 K:BB over 60.1 innings and 12 starts between Triple-A Columbus and Double-A Akron this season. His three Double-A starts resulted in a massive 37.7% kRate and his nine Triple-A starts procured a 33.3% kRate. Last season, Williams struck out 149 in 115 MiLB innings.

Williams draws the favorable A’s match-up in his big league debut. The A’s have been decent enough lately to stay out of the basement level of offenses but they’re still a below-average offense that strikes out more than most teams in the MLB. Following their seven-game win streak in the first half of June, the A’s have begun a new streak… a losing one. They’ve now lost six games in a row and the Guardians (-180 ML) are set up as the heaviest favorites on the slate. If Williams lives up to the hype, he should make for a very worthy SP2 option on DraftKings today at only $5,700.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $11.1k, FD: $10.7k | vs. LAD

Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK | DK: $8.2k, FD: $6.8k | @ CLE

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Texas Rangers vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

+ Rangers: 5.0 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).

+ Kopech is a bit of an enigma but his best outings this season have come exclusively against below-average offenses.

+ Kopech has allowed a slate-high 47.7% Fly Ball Rate, 16.1% HR/FB Rate, 8.7% Barrel%, and 42.1% HardHit%.

+ The Rangers are typically better at home, but their 5.78 runs/gm on the road still leads the MLB.

+ Guaranteed Rate Field has been the #7 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season (and #4 HR Ballpark) and there will be some helpful 10 mph winds blowing out to right field.

- White Sox have had an above-average bullpen lately (4.21 xFIP L2Wks, ranks 10th).

- Kopech averages +39.4% more FPPG at home.

- Rangers bats have cooled off in recent weeks -- their 109 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Wks is still solid but ranks them 14th in the MLB.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Josh Jung, Adolis Garcia

Bargain Bat: Ezequiel Duran

Los Angeles Angels vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

+ Angels: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-3rd on the slate).

+ In 30.0 IP this season, Grove has been rocked to the tune of an 8.10 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, .307 opp AVG, 2.40 HR/9, 21.6% HR/FB Rate, and a slate-worst 10.3% Barrel%.

+ In 352 PA vs. RHPs in the L2Wks, the Angels rank 2nd in OPS, 2nd in wOBA, 1st in ISO, and 2nd in wRC+.

+ Angel Stadium has been the #8 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season -- 10 mph winds blowing out to center tonight.

+/- The LAD bullpen has put up a 5.01 ERA this season (2nd worst), however, their 4.04 xFIP is the 10th best.

- With Shohei Ohtani pitching today, he won’t be available to use in offensive stacks.

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Mickey Moniak, Brandon Drury

Bargain Bat: Andrew Velazquez

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Jhony Brito (RHP), NYY

+ 8-of-9 Mariners hitters have a <5% pOwn%.

+ The Mariners struggle with strikeouts vs. RHPs but Brito is a low strikeout pitcher (16.9% kRate) who relies more on contact outs.

+ Brito has been down in Triple-A for the last month and he wasn’t overly successful across his last four MLB starts, posting a 5.60 ERA, 5.58 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, .300 opp AVG, .415 opp wOBA, and 2.50 HR/9.

+ A small two or three-man SEA stack would be enough to separate your lineups on this small slate.

- Mariners: 3.9 implied runs (3rd lowest on the slate).

- 10-15 mph winds blowing in from center at Yankee Stadium tonight.

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic

Bargain Bat: Jose Caballero

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Ryan Walker (RHP), Sean Manaea (LHP), SF

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jhony Brito (RHP), NYY

3B Jose Ramirez, BOS | DK: $5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), TEX

OF Joc Pederson, SF | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

OF Alex Verdugo, BOS | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Taylor Ward, LAA | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

2B Andres Gimenez, CLE | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

OF Mickey Moniak, LAA | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN

SS Amed Rosario, CLE | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

OF Esteury Ruiz, OAK | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

1B Andrew Vaughn, CWS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), TEX

OF/SS Ezequiel Duran, TEX | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Michael Kopech (RHP), CWS

2B Jose Caballero, SEA | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jhony Brito (RHP), NYY

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Shohei Ohtani MORE than 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Fernando Tatis Jr. MORE than 0.5 Runs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!