Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Happy Friday, everyone! We’re ready to launch into the weekend with a bang as 13 MLB games land on this evening’s main slate. This slate is as deep at pitcher as any slate we’ve seen thus far this season. A reasonable case could be made in favor of rostering nearly 20 separate starting pitchers today! With pitching being so deep, that is going to have an inverse effect on the amount of high-upside offenses available. But of course, any MLB offense can go off against any pitcher at any time so we’ll see what sort of chaos ensues throughout the evening. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

STL @ PIT (7:05 ET): Mid-80s at first pitch with light winds blowing OUT to right. Solid hitting conditions.

TB @ BOS (7:10 ET): Keep an eye on this game as scattered storms are expected to roll through Boston throughout the afternoon and into the evening. Pretty high chance of a delay and a PPD cannot be ruled out either.

TB @ NYM (7:10 ET): Some more scattered storms will be around New York as well but there is less worry about an outright PPD but moderate potential for a delay.

COL @ KC (8:10 ET): A bit of rain will provide some delay risk here. PPD is not likely at all. Winds near 10 mph blowing IN from right.

CLE @ MIN (8:10 ET): The running theme of the day continues in Minnesota. Some stray storms could pop up in the wrong spot and trigger a delay at some point.

DET @ CWS (8:10 ET): Light winds blowing OUT to right in a good hitter’s park.

ATL @ ARI (9:40 ET): The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be open tonight.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $10.7k, FD: $10.8k | @ HOU

While pitching may be very deep today, there isn’t one specific guy at the top of pricing that feels like a standout option above the rest. But we’ll spotlight Mr. Shohei Ohtani on the mound who heads into his 12th start of the season rocking a 2.91 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 0.95 WHIP, 35.0% kRate, and 14.9% SwStr%. Besides strikeouts, one area where Ohtani has really excelled has been his ability to limit hard hits. Ohtani’s 29.0% HardHit% is the third-best mark among all qualified MLB starters. And there’s always some great comfort in knowing that, even if he gives up a handful of hits and two or three runs, he can always offset the DFS scoring with a big strikeout total.

Ohtani won’t have an easy opponent today. After struggling against RHPs to start the season, the Astros have posted a .335 wOBA and 114 wRC+ against righties over the last two weeks, ranking top 10 in both categories, and their 21.3% kRate in that span is the 10th lowest. That said, Ohtani has found plenty of success against Houston -- in 149 PA versus the current Astros roster, Ohtani has held them to a .226 AVG, .266 wOBA, and .236 xwOBA while posting a 32.9% kRate. We can likely expect a pitcher’s duel in Houston tonight with Framber Valdez toeing the rubber for the ‘Stros, so it won’t be an easy route toward earning a win, but Ohtani is priced fairly on both sites and has as much upside as any other pitcher on this loaded slate.

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.1k | vs. ATL

Bit of a risky pick here, simply for match-up reasons, but there is no denying that Merrill Kelly has been outstanding in recent weeks. Looking at his last five starts (31.0 IP), he has posted a stellar 2.59 ERA, 2.69 xFIP, 0.83 WHIP, and .221 opp wOBA with a lofty 32.5% kRate. There is plenty of green figures on his recent statcast data from the last month as well, including a 51.4% GB% and a low 141.1 feet average batted ball distance (80th percentile).

Kelly will go under-owned due to his match-up with the Atlanta Braves but they're not a daunting opponent to face at the moment. The Braves just wrapped up a three-game series against the Oakland A’s, and their MLB-worst pitching staff, combining for only seven runs. Over the last month against RHPs, Atlanta ranks 24th in AVG, 21st in OPS, 22nd in wOBA, and 23rd in wRC+, and they’ve offered up a moderate 22.2% kRate in that span. Sure, the Braves have some big-time sluggers in their lineup, but if Kelly -- who has a low 0.71 HR/9 Rate this season -- simply limits the home run ball, he should be able to put up some great numbers tonight.

Michael Wacha (RHP), SD | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.3k | vs. CHC

Wacha is another pitcher who has been dialed in over the last month. Across his last five starts (32.0 IP), Wacha has procured a 0.84 ERA, 4.50 xFIP, 0.72 WHIP, .190 opp wOBA, and 22.0% kRate. He has been getting a bit fortunate based on that high xFIP and he’s had an unsustainably low .183 BABIP in that five-start span. Nonetheless, he’s found a way to get the job done and, while he may not be a huge strikeout pitcher, he has been able to eat up innings -- covering at least six full frames in each of those previous five outings. He’ll also be stepping on his home mound at Petco Park, the #2 most pitcher-friendly ballpark.

The Chicago Cubs head into this series with some noticeable struggles against right-handed pitching as of late. As a team, they’re hitting under the Mendoza Line against RHPs over the last two weeks with a .197 AVG. In that stretch, they also rank 24th in wOBA, and 25th in wRC+, and their 27.7% kRate is the second-highest mark in the MLB. The Cubs check in with a low 3.8 implied run total tonight and the Padres are strong -165 ML favorites. As long as the BABIP gods don’t come around seeking some regression against Wacha tonight, he should be in line for another sharp outing.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.2k | vs. LAA

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.1k | vs. BAL

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.9k | @ WAS

Justin Verlander (RHP), NYM | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.9k | vs. TOR

Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.4k, FD: $10k | vs. CLE

Jon Gray (RHP), TEX | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9k | vs. SEA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Garrett Whitlock (RHP), BOS

Note: Keep an eye on the forecast leading up to first pitch (7:10 ET) as there are some PPD concerns.

+ Rays: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 6th on the slate).

+ Whitlock has allowed a .364 wOBA, 20.0% HR/FB Rate, and 2.14 HR/9 Rate this season.

+ When the Rays faced Whitlock on April 11th, they produced eight hits (three HRs) and 5 ER against him in 5.0 IP.

+ On the season vs. RHPs, the Rays rank 1st in OPS, wOBA, wRC+, HRs, and Stolen Bases.

+ Fenway Park has been the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season behind only Coors Field.

+/- Based on the 4.51 xFIP, Boston has had the 6th worst bullpen this season; however, over the last two weeks, they’ve limited opponents to a .182 AVG and a 1.00 WHIP.

- Rays bats have cooled off vs. RHPs recently with a subpar .298 wOBA and 93 wRC+ L2Wks.

- 5-10 mph winds blowing in from left field will make it a bit more difficult to launch over the Green Monster.

Favorite TB Bats: Wander Franco, Yandy Diaz, Josh Lowe | Bargain Bat: Jose Siri

San Diego Padres (LHBs Preferred) vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

+ Padres: 4.7 implied runs (ranks T-7th on the slate).

+ Taillon has been painfully bad over his last five starts: 10.90 ERA, 5.12 xFIP, 1.96 WHIP, .351 opp AVG, .432 opp wOBA, 2.60 HR/9 Rate.

+ Taillon is allowing a huge .351 AVG, .473 wOBA, .316 ISO, and 2.37 WHIP to LHBs.

-/+ Padres have been very average against RHPs lately with a 99 wRC+ L2Wks.

- Petco Park is the #2 least hitter-friendly ballpark & the Padres have averaged 3.48 runs/gm at home this season.

Favorite SD Bats: Juan Soto, Jake Cronenworth, Fernando Tatis Jr. | Bargain Bat: Rougned Odor

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

+ Rangers are averaging an MLB-best 6.79 runs/gm at home.

+ All Rangers bats have a 7% pOwn% or lower.

+ Castillo averages -60.5% less FPPG on the road.

+ Smaller sample size, but in 16.0 IP on the road this season, Castillo has posted a 5.06 ERA, 4.73 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, .378 opp wOBA, and 2.25 HR/9.

+ Over the last month, against RHPs at home (189 PA), the Rangers own a stellar .296 AVG, .928 OPS, .392 wOBA, .272 ISO, and 153 wRC+.

+ Globe Life Field has been the #4 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season & the #1 home run ballpark.

-/+ Rangers: 4.3 implied runs (ranks T-13th on the slate).

- Based on their 3.60 xFIP, the Mariners have had the best bullpen this season.

- Castillo is a certified ace so his poor road splits could be a bit of an anomaly and he’s far from guaranteed to struggle on the road tonight.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Josh Jung | Bargain Bat: Leody Tavares

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

OF Bryce Harper, PHI | DK: $6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

OF Juan Soto, SD | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), PHI

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYY

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

C Salvador Perez, KC | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), COL

2B Nolan Gorman, STL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Josh Lowe, TB | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Garrett Whitlock (RHP), BOS

3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Eloy Jimenez, CWS | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Reese Olson (RHP), DET

3B/OF Zach McKinstry, DET | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

OF Michael Conforto, SF | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

1B/OF Alex Kirilloff, MIN | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CLE

3B/SS Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CLE

OF Jose Siri, TB | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Garrett Whitlock (RHP), BOS

1B/OF Brendan Donovan, STL | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Roansy Contreras (RHP), PIT

2B Michael Massey, KC | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), COL

SS Tucupita Marcano, PIT | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), STL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Zach McKinstry MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Alec Burleson LESS than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!