Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Check out LineStar's free 2023 MLB DFS Strategy Guide 

• Sign-up for PrizePicks using Promo Code "BETFULLY" to get 2-months free of LineStar Premium.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I hope all of the dads out there had an excellent Father’s Day! It’s now time to hop back in the saddle for a fresh week of MLB action! Mondays aren’t usually going to be overly hectic on the MLB schedule, and today is no different with a mid-sized seven-game main slate on the board. In general, this slate looks fairly balanced at first glance, though I could envision a lower-scoring slate of games given the number of solid arms that are taking the mound today. Let’s get after it! Best of luck!

Quickly, I do want to note that today’s MLB newsletter is being written much earlier than usual. As a result, there will be some information that I won’t be privy to while putting today’s recommended plays and stacks together. E.g., I have no clue who the White Sox plan on starting at pitcher at this current time. I’ll also be doing some extra guesswork on what the eventual confirmed lineups will look like. Nonetheless, I’ll do my best to highlight some favorable pieces to the puzzle today!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

CHC @ PIT (7:05 ET): Chance for a rain-induced delay, but it’s more likely they play without issue.

COL @ CIN (7:10 ET): This will be the primary game to monitor today. At the time of this writing (which, again, is earlier than usual), there looks to be a large batch of rain heading toward Cincy. So, plenty of rain is expected in the area throughout the day and may continue into the evening. It’s tough to tell just how problematic those rainstorms are going to be this far out from the first pitch, but there will be some definite PPD concerns. I won’t be ruling out any players from this game just yet, but a pre-game forecast check will be needed (if they don’t announce a postponement ahead of game time).

BOS @ MIN (7:40 ET): Winds IN from right/center close to 10 mph.

TEX @ CWS (8:10 ET): 5-10 mph winds OUT to right.

SD @ SF (9:45 ET): Hefty 20 mph winds blowing OUT to center but, as a reminder, Oracle Park is designed to mitigate wind impacts.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.5k | @ MIL

This slate features a great corps of starting pitchers, particularly for mid-sized slate standards. We’ll begin by placing the spotlight on Merrill Kelly, who is posting career numbers in his age-34 season. Kelly has been particularly effective dating back to late August. Spanning his last nine starts (56.2 IP), Kelly has impressed with a 2.86 ERA, 3.15 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, and 28.7% kRate. For DFS purposes, Kelly has shown a solid floor and a tremendous ceiling across the entirety of this recent nine-game stretch.

We’ll have no choice but to love the match-up in front of Merrill Kelly today. Over the last two weeks against RHPs (327 PA), the Brewers have posted a .216 AVG (ranks 26th), .649 OPS (27th), .288 wOBA (27th), 79 wRC+ (27th), and a massive 30.0% kRate (highest in MLB). Kelly faced this Milwaukee team back in early April and it was a bit of a strange outing. He pitched six one-hit innings, but that one hit was a solo home run and he went on to give up two more runs due to some untimely walks. He did rack up seven Ks and put up 17.9 DKFP/34 FDFP in that game. That sort of fantasy score seems to be around his floor lately and there is a ton of K upside to be had against the strikeout-happy Brewers today.

James Paxton (LHP), BOS | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.2k | @ MIN

Paxton, who is similarly priced to the aforementioned Merrill Kelly, will be a popular target for today’s main slate action. Paxton has started six games this season and has scored at least 21.3 DKFP/36 FDFP in five of them. Sure, he has not faced the stiffest of competition, but those sorts of results will draw attention from DFS players… and rightfully so. Overall, across his 32.0 IP in 2023, Paxton has put up a steady 3.09 ERA, 3.10 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, and a slate-best 33.1% kRate to go along with an excellent 14.9% SwStr%.

Paxton has thrown either a 4-seamer, a curveball, or a cutter on 94.1% of his pitches this season. Against that pitch mix (from LHPs), the Twins have a .312 xwOBA (2nd lowest in MLB) and a 26.4% kRate (3rd highest in MLB). The Twins have simply struggled against lefties throughout the season in general, ranking bottom-five in most primary offensive categories (AVG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+) to go along with the second-highest kRate of 27.9%. The outlook is quite strong for Paxton today so we should anticipate that he’ll continue to excel now that he appears to be fully healthy again.

Brandon Williamson (LHP), CIN | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7k | vs. COL

Note: Keep in mind that there’s a realistic chance of this game getting postponed due to some wet weather.

Assuming this game plays without issue, Williamson might be worth a dart throw as an SP2 punt play in DraftKings GPPs. It’s been far from a steady rookie campaign for Williamson, who has posted a poor 5.40 ERA, 5.51 xFIP, 1.42 WHIP, and 15.9% kRate through six MLB starts. However, his best outing came in his MLB debut, which just so happened to be against the Rockies… in Coors Field! Williamson put up 5.2 IP of two-hit, one-run ball while securing six strikeouts and posting 20.4 DKFP/32 FDFP.

Great American Ballpark is still an unfavorable pitcher’s park but it’s worth noting how bad the Rockies have been versus lefty pitchers on the road where they have a .221 AVG (27th), .597 OPS (29th), .265 wOBA (29th), 63 wRC+ (29th), and 26.8% kRate (4th highest). The Rockies are also without three of their best hitters (C. Blackmon, CJ Cron, and K. Bryant) who are all on the IL with various injuries. SS Ezequiel Tovar may also be going on the paternity list and be unavailable to play today. This is far from a high-confidence play… and this game may not even play due to weather, but there’s reason to believe that Williamson could work out in more aggressive (DraftKings) GPP builds.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $10.2k, FD: $9.8k | vs. NYM

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.6k | vs. BOS

Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9k | @ HOU

Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.8k | @ CWS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Chicago Cubs vs. Osvaldo Bido (RHP), PIT

+ Cubs: 4.8 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ Bido, who made his MLB debut last Wednesday, will be facing the Cubs in back-to-back starts which is a situation that can often favor the offense.

+ This is a very small sample size, but in Bido’s debut last week, which spanned 4.0 innings (91 pitches), he allowed a huge 70% HardHit% and 94.4 mph average exit velocity.

+ Bido put up some lackluster results in 55.1 IP in Triple-A this year: 4.55 ERA, 5.27 xFIP, 1.30 WHIP, 10.9% BB%.

+ Bido threw a heavy sinker/slider mix in his debut -- the Cubs rank 3rd with a .343 xwOBA versus those pitch types this season.

+ The Cubs have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs over the last week.

+ Pirates bullpen has been dreadful lately, posting an MLB-worst 8.41 ERA, 5.56 xFIP, and 2.02 WHIP over the last two weeks.

- PNC Park is not a great hitter’s park (ranks 18th in adjusted park factor) and the Cubs are averaging just 4.12 runs/gm on the road this season.

Favorite CHC Bats: Nico Hoerner, Christopher Morel, Ian Happ

Bargain Bat: Mike Tauchman

Cincinnati Reds vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Note: Keep an eye on the forecast for this game (potential PPD candidate).

+ Reds: 5.4 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Even with keeping the disadvantage of pitching in Coors Field for over half of his starts in mind, Gomber has simply been a poor starter this season: 7.29 ERA, 5.11 xFIP, 1.70 WHIP, 45.5% HardHit%, .404 opp wOBA, 20% HR/FB Rate.

+ Reds have been excellent versus LHPs over the last month: .293 AVG (ranks 4th), .847 OPS (2nd), .365 wOBA (2nd), .194 ISO (6th), and 123 wRC+ (5th).

+ Plenty of affordable bats in this Reds lineup.

+ Rockies bullpen L2Weeks: 5.24 ERA, 5.20 xFIP, 1.62 WHIP.

- Assuming they’re able to play this game, the majority of CIN bats project for 20+% ownership.

Favorite CIN Bats: Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer

Bargain Bat: Kevin Newman

Also Consider:

Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox (Starter TBA)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM

+ 8-of-9 hitters in the projected Astros lineup have a 10% pOwn% or lower.

+ Scherzer has been inconsistent and has posted some poor road splits this season: 35.1 IP, 5.35 ERA, 4.30 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, .359 opp wOBA, 2.04 HR/9 Rate.

+ Scherzer has some very poor reverse splits this year -- vs. RHBs: .330 AVG, .421 wOBA, .318 ISO, 2.33 HR/9 Rate.

+ Scherzer is allowing a high 22.1% LineDrive% over the last 30 days.

+ Based on their 4.45 xFIP, the Mets have had the 8th worst bullpen this season.

-/+ Astros have been a fairly average offense vs. RHPs.

- He’s been out for about a week and a half, but Yordan Alvarez (oblique/IL) will not be available today which is a big blow to the Astros’ offensive upside.

Favorite HOU Bats: Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman

Bargain Bat: Yainer Diaz

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Ryan Walker (RHP), SF

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. CWS (Starter TBA)

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Osvaldo Bido (RHP), PIT

2B Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM

2B/SS Matt McLain, CIN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Brandon Williamson (LHP), CIN

OF Joc Pederson, SF | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), SD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Eloy Jimenez, CWS | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

1B/3B Kevin Newman, CIN | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Leody Taveras, TEX | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. CWS (Starter TBA)

1B Carlos Santana, PIT | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

OF/SS Ezequiel Duran, TEX | DK: $3k, FD: $3k | vs. CWS (Starter TBA)

1B/OF Yainer Diaz, HOU | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM

1B Donovan Solano, MIN | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Osvaldo Bido (RHP), PIT

C Henry Davis, PIT | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s HR Call:

OF Christopher Morel, CHC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Osvaldo Bido (RHP), PIT

Make sure you’re following the @LineStarApp on Twitter so you can catch the HRCotD tweet later today!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Christopher Morel MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Luis Matos LESS than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!