Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Plenty of teams are enjoying an off day or traveling for their respective upcoming weekend series but we’ve still got a solid seven-game set on the main slate ticket! We’ll have some decent pitching and stack options to sift through today but it’s far from the most straightforward of slates. It feels like a day where we can comfortably go against the grain in a lot of spots in search of the unexpected. Here’s to cracking the code! Best of luck to everyone (except that one guy in chat from yesterday)!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

DET @ MIN (7:10 ET): Winds blowing IN from left at 10 mph.

COL @ ATL (7:20 ET): The main weather-related game to keep an eye on today. There’s a moderately high chance of rain in the ATL forecast and the timing could create some less-than-ideal scenarios. There’s also a decent chance that there will be no issues at all. It’s a little too early to assume anything at the time of this writing so we’ll just have to see how things are shaping up closer to first pitch. Right now, I’d say the bats are fine but the starting pitchers will carry some risk.

PIT @ CHC (8:05 ET): Cooler temps around 60 degrees with winds around 15 mph blowing IN from left at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field. Tough to find better pitching conditions this time of year.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11k | vs. LAA

With Jacob deGrom on the shelf once again with a long-term injury, Nathan Eovaldi has emerged as the staff ace for the 42-25 Rangers. He has really only had one truly poor outing in 13 starts this season which has led to a 2.49 ERA, 3.37 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, and 24.9% kRate. Eovaldi hit a major stride in late April and going back across his last eight starts (59.0 IP), he has turned in an astounding 1.22 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and .168 opp AVG.

One concern I’d have with Eovaldi today is his primary pitch types and how well the Angels match up against them. Eovaldi has relied upon 4-seamers, split fingers, and cutters on 84.2% of his thrown pitches this season. It just so happens that the Angels have an MLB-best .371 xwOBA against those pitches this season. However, Eovaldi is a more talented starter than most guys throwing those same pitch types and he had no issues against the Angels when he faced them back on May 6th, throwing eight scoreless innings on 107 pitches, allowing five hits, two walks, and reeling in five Ks plus the win/quality start -- good for 27.8 DKFP/49 FDFP. The Angels are hitting RHPs well (121 wRC+ L2Wks) and Shohei Ohtani, who has been smashing everything lately, is also on the mound for L.A. tonight. So while we can’t roll Eovaldi out with unbridled confidence, he has shown enough consistency this season to make for a worthy spend-up DFS play.

Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.5k | vs. PIT

From one consistent starter to another. Stroman has been Mr. Quality Start, capturing a QS in 12-of-14 games this season. Stroman has been particularly sharp at home where, across seven starts (46.0 IP), he has come away with a 2.15 ERA, 3.36 xFIP, 0.83 WHIP, .159 opp AVG, and 24.4% kRate while forcing a 63.5% Ground Ball Rate. And, not that Stroman necessarily needs the benefit of the weather given the number of ground balls he forces, but Wrigley Field will provide excellent pitching conditions this evening with cool temps and ~15 mph winds blowing in from left field.

The Pirates are a tricky offense to decipher as they can lay down two runs or less just as easily as they could pop off for 10 runs or more. The weather conditions at Wrigley will make a huge game, for either offense, an unlikely outcome. Stroman does also specialize in primarily throwing breaking balls which the Pirates have a high 29.7% kRate and subpar .288 wOBA against this season. All in all, we should anticipate another quality outing from Stroman today.

AJ Smith-Shawver (RHP), ATL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $8k | vs. COL

Note: Keep an eye on the weather for this game to ensure any mid-game delay would be unlikely.

Due to pricing discrepancies, Smith-Shawver will be best suited as an SP2 option over on DraftKings given his bottom-of-the-barrel $5,500 tag. We don’t have much MLB data to go off of, since this will be just his second career MLB start and third overall appearance. However, in 7.2 big league innings, he has yet to surrender an earned run and has posted a 0.78 WHIP while allowing a low 20.0% HardHit%. His strikeout prowess has yet to be put on display at the MLB level (17.9% kRate, 6.4% SwStr%) but, again, small sample size and he has also gone up against two very low strikeout offenses in the Nationals (19.2% kRate vs. RHPs, 3rd lowest) and D-Backs (19.1% kRate vs. RHPs, 2nd lowest). Across 33.0 IP in the minor leagues this season, Smith-Shawver racked up 45 strikeouts (12.3 K/9) and came away with a minuscule 1.09 ERA.

Drawing the Rockies away from Coors Field is obviously the preferred way to face this team. Against RHPs on the road, the Rockies rank 24th in OPS, 24th in wOBA, 27th in ISO, and 25th in wRC+ while striking out 24.2% of the time (11th highest). As long as the weather doesn’t cause any mid-game interruptions, AJSS will be in a strong spot to cover five or six innings and position himself for a win (ATL: -260 ML odds are the heaviest on the slate).

Other Pitchers to Consider

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $10.7k, FD: $10.7k | @ TEX

Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.1k | vs. DET

Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.3k | @ CHC

Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7k | @ MIN

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

+ Braves: 5.4 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Freeland tends to actually pitch worse when away from Coors Field -- in away games this season: 33.1 IP, 4.81 ERA, 5.29 xFIP, .343 opp wOBA, 2.14 HR/9, and 9.5% kRate.

+ Braves have been dominant against LHPs this season, even more so at home where they have a .315 AVG, .922 OPS, .388 wOBA, .244 ISO, 142 wRC+, and 44.0% HardContact%.

+ Braves have an MLB-best .384 xwOBA versus Freeland’s primary pitches (sinker, slider, curveball).

+ Based on their 4.57 xFIP, the Rockies have had the 4th worst bullpen this season.

- Braves will likely be the highest-owned stack of the day.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies

Bargain Bat: Kevin Pillar

Houston Astros vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

+ Astros: 4.5 implied runs (ranks 5th on the slate).

+ There are a lot of red figures (good for HOU) in Gore’s statcast data over the last month: 45.5% HardContact%, 192.1 ft. average distance (bottom 20th percentile), and 11 barreled balls (bottom 5th percentile).

+ Astros have been a top-five offense vs. LHPs over the last month: .823 OPS (4th), .352 wOBA (5th), .208 wOBA (4th), and 126 wRC+ (4th).

+ In a smaller, but more recent, sample size, the Astros have been arguably the best team against LHPs over the last two weeks (130 PA): .342 AVG (1st), .946 OPS (2nd), .407 wOBA (1st), 163 wRC+ (1st), and 16.9% kRate (6th lowest).

+ Based on their 4.74 xFIP, the Nationals have had the 3rd worst bullpen this season.

+ The WAS bullpen has been particularly bad in the last two weeks: 6.61 ERA, 5.29 xFIP, 1.84 WHIP, .314 opp AVG, 16.0% kRate, and 1.93 HR/9.

- Gore has performed better on the road where he has a respectable 3.92 ERA, 2.99 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, and 32.3% kRate.

- Not having Yordan Alvarez (oblique/IL) in the lineup is a significant blow to Houston’s lineup upside.

Favorite HOU Bats: Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Mauricio Dubon

Bargain Bat: Jose Abreu

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA

+ 7-of-9 hitters in the projected TEX lineup have a <5% pOwn%.

+ Ohtani is Ohtani but he has struggled in his last two pitching starts (@ HOU, vs. SEA) allowing 8 ER, 12 H (3 HR), and 6 BB across 11.0 IP.

+ In four pitching starts at Globe Life Field, Ohtani has come away with a lackluster 5.66 ERA.

+ Globe Life Field has rated as the #4 hitter’s park this season (#1 HR park) and the Rangers continue to own an MLB-best 6.61 runs/gm average at home.

+ Rangers vs. RHPs L2Wks: .279 AVG (3rd), .852 OPS (2nd), .367 wOBA (2nd), .216 ISO (1st), and 136 wRC+ (2nd).

+ Rangers: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-3rd on the slate).

-/+ The Angels bullpen has posted an impressive 2.03 ERA L2WKs but their 5.05 xFIP in that span signifies some considerable regression is due.

- It would also surprise no one if Ohtani completely shut down a hot Rangers offense for 6+ innings.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe

Bargain Bat: Leody Taveras

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. AJ Smith-Shawver (RHP), ATL

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), SD

OF Eloy Jimenez, CWS | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Carlos Correa, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

2B/SS Mauricio Dubon, HOU | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

SS Orlando Arcia, ATL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

C Gary Sanchez, SD | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

1B Jose Abreu, HOU | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

OF Andrew Benintendi, CWS | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Michael Grove (RHP), LAD

OF David Peralta, LAD | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT

OF Kevin Pillar, ATL | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

1B Donovan Solano, MIN | DK: $2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Shohei Ohtani MORE than 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (Discounted prop)

Kevin Pillar MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!