Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Another busy day of baseball lands on the midweek schedule with a dozen games residing on today’s main slate. This slate will present some quality balance between offense and pitching so we’ll have plenty of ways to go about constructing lineups today. Let’s try to avoid those pitching landmines (looking at you, Scherzer) and hit on the right bats and stacks! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

TOR @ BAL (7:05 ET): Winds around 10 mph blowing OUT to right at times, mostly left to right.

COL @ BOS (7:10 ET): Some rain will be around during the scheduled game time so some sort of delay looks like a real possibility. We also can’t 100% rule out a PPD, but that doesn’t seem like the most likely outcome. 5-10 mph winds OUT to left.

NYY @ NYM (7:10 ET): Rain will be clearing around first pitch so there is a chance of a late start but no issues beyond that. Winds blowing OUT to right around 15 mph, so a nice little boost to bats in what is typically a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.1k | vs. CWS

Kershaw battled through a bit of a funk in May, but he is back to looking like vintage Kershaw more recently. In his last two starts (vs. NYY and @ CIN) Kershaw allowed two combined earned runs while covering seven innings and racking up nine strikeouts in both games to go along with a pair of wins. He has typically fared better at home (+38.7% more FPPG) and that has certainly been the case this season. In 31.0 IP at home, Kershaw is boasting a 1.45 ERA, 1.92 xFIP, 0.71 WHIP, and a massive 37.7% kRate.

Kershaw will draw a favorable match-up against a White Sox offense that has ranked 21st in OPS, 22nd in wOBA, and 21st in wRC+ against LHPs over the last month. The White Sox also check in at 21st in xwOBA against Kershaw’s two primary pitches, 4-seamers and sliders, which he has thrown on 81.7% of pitches this season. The Dodgers own huge -270 ML odds to win tonight so, on top of excellent strikeout upside, Kershaw is one of the most favorable pitchers on the slate to earn that coveted win bonus.

Eury Perez (RHP), MIA | DK: $9k, FD: $9.2k | @ SEA

I’m making a bit of a pivot here by going away from RHP Tyler Glasnow (DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.1k), who is setting up like a very chalky SP target tonight against Oakland. The immensely talented Glasnow has looked solid through three starts against some quality offenses but I’ll speak more on that further down in today’s newsletter.

Eury Perez is poised to make his seventh career MLB start this evening. He currently ranks as the top overall pitching prospect by both FanGraphs and MLB.com, and the #3 and #6 ranked prospect, respectively, regardless of position. By all means, Perez has pitched very well through his first six MLB starts (29.0 IP), procuring an impressive 2.17 ERA to go along with a 1.21 WHIP, 24.8% kRate, and 13.1% SwStr%. As long as Perez maintains, or even increases, that 13.1% SwStr%, his big league kRate should continue to rise and he boasted a huge 35.9% kRate in six minor league starts this year. Perez’s lackluster 4.69 xFIP does indicate that some regression is due on his ERA, but we’ll see whether or not that comes to fruition any time soon.

The Mariners' offense has fared well in the first two games of this series against Miami, scoring eight runs on Monday and nine runs last night. It’s still worth pointing out that they’ve been struggling against RHPs lately. Over the last two weeks (vs. RHPs), Seattle is hitting just .199 with a .669 OPS, .297 wOBA, and 93 wRC+ while striking out 25.5% of the time. We haven’t seen Perez put up a massive fantasy score just yet but his only game where he scored less than 16.9 DKFP/29 FDFP came at Coors Field. He also hasn’t thrown more than 88 pitches in an MLB game. If Miami lifts those light pitch restrictions on him, Perez could feasibly post his best DFS score to date this evening while checking in at <10% ownership.

Ben Lively (RHP), CIN | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.8k | @ KC

There are some decent pitchers in the value tier on this slate, but no one, in particular, stands out as a guy we can feel confident in. Ben Lively will set up as a fairly favorable option and carries some low projected ownership. Lively was outstanding in his first three official starts this season, posting DKFP scores of 23.0, 25.3, and 25.2. He has not been as successful in his two recent starts, allowing 12 combined ER to the Brewers and Cardinals. However, he was able to offset some of that run damage by providing quality strikeout numbers and pitching deep into those games (7.0 IP vs. MIL and 6.2 IP vs. STL). Lively’s 4.21 ERA and 3.94 xFIP are nothing to write home about, but he has put up a very respectable 1.13 WHIP paired with a 24.8% kRate and a low walk rate.

With the Oakland A’s on a tear, the 18-49 Kansas City Royals now own the worst record in baseball. While they’re not the worst offense in the MLB, they’re still struggling at the plate in general. Against RHPs in the last two weeks, they’re accounting for a .208 AVG, .614 OPS, .276 wOBA, .112 ISO, and 70 wRC+. Lively will need to cut down on the barreled balls allowed (11 barrels in the past 30 days, bottom 5th percentile) but he will have a decent pathway to success tonight. Consider him to be a risk/reward option after showing off 25 DKFP/45 FDFP upside this season.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.8k | vs. MIA

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), TB | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.1k | @ OAK

Michael Wacha (RHP), SD | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.9k | vs. CLE

Justin Verlander (RHP), NYM | DK: $8k, FD: $8.8k | vs. NYY

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Boston Red Sox vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Note: Keep an eye on the forecast closer to first pitch as there is some rain expected in Boston.

+ Red Sox: 5.8 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate, by a decent margin).

+ Gomber’s overall numbers suffer from the Coors Field effect, but his results in away games have been nothing special: 23.1 IP, 4.63 ERA, 5.48 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, .360 opp wOBA.

+ The Red Sox have been excellent versus LHPs at home this season: .307 AVG, .869 OPS, .378 wOBA, 133 wRC+.

+ Fenway Park has ranked as the #2 hitter’s park this season and Boston is averaging 5.66 runs/gm at home.

+ Based on their 4.55 xFIP, the Rockies have had the 4th worst bullpen this season.

+ The Rockies also used six relievers in yesterday’s game so they could be a bit overtaxed today.

- Gomber is allowing a low 23.0% HardContact% on the road this season.

- High ownership is expected on BOS bats today with 8-of-9 hitters carrying a 14%+ pOwn%.

- No Rafael Devers in the lineup today, who has been hot at the plate lately.

Favorite BOS Bats: Justin Turner, Adam Duvall, Christian Arroyo

Bargain Bat: Rob Refsnyder

Texas Rangers vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

+ Rangers: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ Detmers has averaged -29.0% less FPPG on the road.

+ Detmers has some quality strikeout stuff (27.2% kRate) but he has surrendered a ton of hard hit balls -- 44.2% HardHit% & 91.0 mph average exit velo.

+ Rangers vs. LHPs at home this season: .298 AVG, .843 OPS, .365 wOBA, and 134 wRC+.

+ Globe Life Field has been the #5 hitter’s park (#1 home run park) and the Rangers average an MLB-best 6.63 runs/gm at home.

+ Every TEX bat has a <10% pOwn% today.

-/+ The Angels bullpen has put up an excellent 1.95 ERA over the last two weeks, however, their 5.01 xFIP in that span is the 5th worst suggesting some regression is due.

- Detmers allowing a low 2.8% Barrel% this season.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Josh Jung, Jonah Heim

Bargain Bat: Ezequiel Duran

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland A’s vs. Tyler Glasnow (RHP), TB

+ It’s only a 15.2 IP sample size for this season, but Glasnow has been getting hit hard: 54.1% HardHit%, 12.5% Barrel%, 92.5 mph average exit velo.

+ There is something to be said about momentum in baseball and since their seven-game win streak began on June 6th, the Oakland A’s have been incredible versus RHPs: .299 AVG (ranks 5th), .883 OPS (4th), .385 wOBA (2nd), 152 wRC+ (2nd), with an 18.2% kRate (5th lowest).

+ With the exception of Esteury Ruiz (7% pOwn%), the remaining projected A’s hitters have a <3% pOwn%.

+ Glasnow projects as one of the highest-owned pitchers on the slate -- likely 30+% ownership on both sites tonight.

+ The Rays bullpen really hasn’t been great this season -- their 4.79 xFIP is the second-worst mark in the MLB.

- A’s: 3.6 implied runs (T-3rd fewest on the slate).

- A’s offensive production could fall back down to earth and they did struggle to eke out two runs last night.

- Glasnow has allowed a .101 wOBA vs. RHBs this season (but only 27 total RHBs faced).

Favorite OAK Bats: Ryan Noda, Brent Rooker, Seth Brown

Bargain Bat: Jace Peterson

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CLE

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

SS Wander Franco, TB | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

C Salvador Perez, KC | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Ben Lively (RHP), CIN

OF Adam Duvall, BOS | DK: $5.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

3B/SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

OF George Springer, TOR | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Osvaldo Bido (RHP), PIT

2B Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

OF Austin Hays, BAL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Justin Turner, BOS | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

3B/SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

1B/OF Luke Raley, TB | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Luis Medina (RHP), OAK

OF/SS Ezequiel Duran, TEX | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

2B/SS Christian Arroyo, BOS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn, BAL | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

1B Ryan Noda, OAK | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tyler Glasnow (RHP), TB

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Osvaldo Bido (RHP), PIT

OF Rob Refsnyder, BOS | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

C Alejandro Kirk, TOR | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Justin Turner MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

Tyler Glasnow LESS than 43.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!