Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A new week of MLB action is here and Monday will set us up with a mid-sized seven-game main slate to dive into! It’s not the most attractive of slates but, in general, it does set up with a nice balance between viable pitching options and worthy offensive stacks. Let’s get right into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Not much to worry about today!

COL @ BOS (7:10 ET): Low-end chance of some light rain.

PHI @ ARI (9:40 ET): The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be open tonight.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.5k | @ SEA

Luzardo was one of the better lefty starters in the MLB a season ago and, following a very so-so start to 2023, he’s been rounding back into form as of late. Over his last five starts, Luzardo has put up an impressive 0.99 WHIP paired with a huge 34.5% kRate. He’ll be pitching on the road tonight, where he has been a bit more unreliable, but T-Mobile Park is a great environment for pitchers and ranks as the 2nd most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season.

The Mariners have had some issues against lefty pitching this season. Versus LHPs, they rank 23rd in AVG, 26th in OPS, 25th in wOBA, 21st in ISO, and 21st in wRC+. They’re also striking out 26.7% of the time against LHPs, which is the 3rd highest mark in the MLB. Now, it is worth noting that they’ve been much improved against lefties in recent weeks and they’ve posted a 115 wRC+ over the last month (ranks 10th). However, they’re still offering up plenty of strikeouts (26.5% kRate vs. LHPs L30Days). This game is setting up as a bit of a pitcher’s duel given its slate-low 7.5-run over/under and, while there are certainly some scenarios where the Mariners beat Luzardo up a bit, it’s more likely that he continues his recent trends and posts a solid outing.

James Paxton (LHP), BOS | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.8k | vs. COL

These two lefties that are being spotlighted (Paxton & Luzardo) are poised to be the most popular DFS options on today’s slate. High ownership isn’t enough to scare me away from using them but if I were forced to pick just one of these guys, I’d likely side with Paxton over Luzardo. Outside of a poor showing on the road against the Angels, Paxton has been excellent in his four remaining starts this season. In those four starts, Paxton has posted a 2.35 ERA, 3.22 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, and 33.3% kRate. His 14.6% SwStr% is also the best mark among today’s starting pitchers.

Facing off with the Rockies when they’re playing away from Coors Field is typically going to be one of the better match-ups a pitcher could ask for. Fenway Park has been the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season, so it’s not like it’s a massive downgrade from Coors Field, but the point remains. Against LHPs on the road this season, the Rockies have posted a meager .222 AVG, .601 OPS, .267 wOBA, .103 ISO, 64 wRC+, and a lofty 27.9% kRate. The Rockies are also averaging just 3.69 runs/gm on the road as opposed to 5.14 runs/gm at home. The Red Sox (-250 ML) are very heavy favorites today and we should feel great about rolling Paxton out in lineups on this slate.

Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.7k | vs. LAA

There is not a great selection of value pitchers today but if there is one guy we could “somewhat” trust, it’s likely going to be Dane Dunning. He began this season out of the bullpen but has made his last six appearances as a traditional starter, which he has typically been in his MLB career. Across 53.2 IP this season, Dunning has maintained a sharp 2.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and .270 opp wOBA. Unfortunately, there is some “bad” to speak of -- he hasn’t been a huge strikeout guy (15.0% kRate), his 4.61 xFIP indicates some sizable regression is due, and he has allowed 10 barreled balls over the last 30 days (bottom 5th percentile). However, despite the high barrel rate, Dunning has managed to keep those hard hits in the field of play and he’s only surrendered three home runs this season -- good for a 0.50 HR/9 Rate and slate-best 5.5% HR/FB Rate.

The Angels' offense comes in swinging some hot bats. Against RHPs over the last two weeks, they rank 1st in the MLB with a .225 ISO and 2nd with a 124 wRC+. Their 25.3% kRate in that span is the 6th highest so perhaps they can provide Dunning with a moderate boost to his K numbers. The Rangers are also fairly heavy -160 ML favorites so if Dunning can work through five or six frames while avoiding a blowup inning, he has a decent chance to pay off his modest DFS price tags tonight. His first start of the season did come against this Angels team back on May 5th and he pitched five scoreless innings, allowing two hits, one walk, and three strikeouts on 72 pitches. Dunning has reached pitch counts in the high-90s over his last three starts so if he can replicate that same sort of success against the Angels, he’ll work out just fine tonight.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Zach Eflin (RHP), TB | DK: $11k, FD: $10.8k | @ OAK

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.6k | @ STL

Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.1k | @ KC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

+ Rays: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 5th on the slate).

+ Kaprielian is arguably the lowest quality starter on this slate and he ranks dead last with each of the following metrics: 7.21 ERA, 6.19 xFIP, 1.76 WHIP, 50.4% Fly Ball%, and .379 opp wOBA.

+ Versus RHPs this season, the Rays rank 1st in OPS, 1st in wOBA, 2nd in ISO, and 1st in wRC+.

+ Based on their 5.39 xFIP, the A’s have had the worst bullpen in the MLB.

+ In three previous match-ups against the A’s this season, the Rays are averaging 10.3 runs/gm to go along with a .300 AVG, .467 wOBA, .380 ISO, 1.115 OPS, 211 wRC+, and 11.3% kRate.

- The Oakland Coliseum has been the #10 least hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

- The Rays' magic has subsided lately -- over the last two weeks, they’re batting .220 with a .290 wOBA and 88 wRC+ -- all below average results.

- Don’t look now but the A’s are playing with some momentum and their five-game winning streak is tied for the best in the MLB right now.

Favorite TB Bats: Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe

Bargain Bat: Luke Raley

Texas Rangers vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

+ Rangers: 5.2 implied runs (ranks 4th on the slate).

+ Anderson has had a few decent outings across his 11 starts this season but, overall, he’s been a low-quality pitcher: 5.62 ERA, 5.98 xFIP, 1.60 WHIP, and .363 opp wOBA.

+ The Rangers have been excellent versus LHPs at home: .300 AVG, .853 OPS, .369 wOBA, and 137 wRC+.

+ Globe Life Field has been the 5th most hitter-friendly ballpark this season and ranks 1st in adjusted home run factor.

+ The Rangers are averaging an MLB-best 6.77 runs/gm at home.

+ Based on their 4.99 xFIP, the Angels have had the 4th worst bullpen over the last two weeks.

- The core TEX bats are pricey and this is likely going to be one of the higher-owned stacks on the slate.

Favorite TEX Bats: Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Josh Jung

Bargain Bat: Ezequiel Duran

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

+ All projected Giants hitters have a 6% pOwn% or lower.

+ In 49.2 IP in the MLB, between 2022 and 2023, Liberatore has come away with a poor 5.98 ERA, 5.07 xFIP, 1.69 WHIP, and 16.8% kRate.

+ The Giants have been a top-10 offense vs. LHPs over the last month: .305 AVG (1st), .803 OPS (9th), .347 wOBA (9th), and 120 wRC+ (9th).

+ Based on adjusted park factor, Busch Stadium has been the #3 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

+ The Giants have been much better on the road where they have averaged 5.17 runs/gm (4.20 runs/gm at home).

-/+ Giants: 4.3 implied runs (ranks 9th on the slate).

- Based on their 3.93 xFIP, the Cardinals have had the 7th best bullpen this season.

Favorite SF Bats: Thairo Estrada, JD Davis, Casey Schmidt

Bargain Bat: Austin Slater

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Connor Seabold (RHP), COL

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Matt Strahm (LHP), PHI

SS Wander Franco, TB | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

C Salvador Perez, KC | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

2B Thairo Estrada, SF | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Tommy Hendry (LHP), ARI

OF Jorge Soler, MIA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

3B Josh Jung, TEX | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

3B/SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B/OF Luke Raley, TB | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

1B Justin Turner, BOS | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Connor Seabold (RHP), COL

1B/3B Emmanuel Rivera, ARI | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Matt Strahm (LHP), PHI

2B/SS Casey Schmidt, SF | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

OF/SS Ezequiel Duran, TEX | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

OF Taylor Ward, LAA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

1B/OF Nick Pratto, KC | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

OF Edward Olivares, KC | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Luke Weaver (RHP), CIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Home Run Calls have returned! Retweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Corbin Carroll MORE than 0.5 Runs

Luke Raley MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!