Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s time to lock and load for another big MLB Tuesday as 10 games land on the main slate menu! There is a lot to like about this slate, but it’s still going to be a tough nut to crack. There is a good deal of pitching talent on the mound today, but you can build a case for and against just about every SP option on the board. The same can be said about most offenses/stack options. So let’s dig in and see if we can have success solving today’s MLB DFS puzzle! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Two games to keep an eye on today: CWS @ KC and SD @ MIN.

BOS @ ATL (7:20 ET): Low-80s temps at first pitch with ~10 mph winds blowing OUT to left. Low-end chance of a stray pop-up storm hitting the ballpark.

CWS @ KC (7:40 ET): A pretty intense and slow-moving storm system is heading toward KC late this afternoon, and it’ll be a situation worth monitoring. If those storms linger a little too long, a delay or even a PPD could be on the table. For now, we’ll predict this game plays but check on this forecast closer to first pitch before locking anyone in. Winds blowing IN from right at 10 mph.

SD @ MIN (7:40 ET): A scattered storm system makes its way toward MIN in the late afternoon hours into the early evening. Some sort of delay feels pretty likely but the hope is that they’ll be able to get this game in afterwards. There will still be some level of PPD risk here so this is another game we’ll need to check on closer to first pitch.

HOU @ LAA (9:38 ET): Winds blowing OUT to left/center around 10-15 mph.

MIA @ ARI (9:40 ET): The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be open tonight.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $11.6k, FD: $11.6k | vs. HOU

When Ohtani is on the mound, he’s usually one of those pitchers who needs no introduction or persuasion as a DFS option, so I typically won’t spotlight him in this section. Though, I do get the feeling that some folks may avoid him due to the Astros match-up, which we’ll get into momentarily. Outside of a start against Boston that was cut short to just two innings and 31 pitches, he’s done typical Ohtani things. Thanks to his elite strikeout potential, he’s even been able to salvage a 5 ER performance against the A’s (6.0 IP, 8 Ks) and a 4 ER outing in his last pitching start against the Cardinals (5.0 IP, 13 Ks). To no one’s surprise, Ohtani leads all pitchers today with his 38.6% kRate and 15.2% SwStr%. He’ll be taking the mound at home tonight where he tends to excel. In 17 home starts (109.0 IP) since the start of last season, Ohtani has boasted a 1.90 ERA, 2.52 xFIP, 0.87 WHIP, .183 opp AVG, and a 34.4% kRate.

The reigning world champion Astros come to town to take on Ohtani tonight, but that shouldn’t necessarily sway anyone from sliding him into your DFS lineups. The Astros have been a bottom-10 offense versus RHPs this season and arguably THE worst offense lately. In the last two weeks versus RHPs (285 PA), the Astros rank dead last in the MLB with a .192 AVG, .238 wOBA, and 47 wRC+. Their 23.5% kRate is also the 11th-highest in that span. Houston is certainly underperforming with the bats and could snap back into being a fairly potent offense at any point, but it doesn’t seem likely to happen against Ohtani. The $11,600 price tag on both sites is a large chunk of salary to devote to one player but, at the same time, Ohtani is still very likely to land in the optimal lineup by night’s end.

Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.1k | @ SEA

Heaney is a volatile starter who I don’t often look to target but perhaps there will be an exception made today. In his six 2023 starts, he has two poor outings, three solid games, and one outstanding performance -- which is very on-brand for Heaney. There is nothing remarkable about his 5.52 ERA and 5.02 xFIP through six starts this season but, at his best, he does offer double-digit strikeout potential. Something worth noting is Heaney’s tendency to pitch better on the road. He averages +48.8% more FPPG in road games and he’ll take the mound at the #5 most pitcher-friendly ballpark at T-Mobile Park this evening. In nine road starts since the start of 2022, Heaney has rocked a stellar 2.08 ERA, 2.81 xFIP, and 35.5% kRate -- compare that to his 4.86 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, and 30.3% kRate in 13 home games in that span.

The big draw for Heaney today will be his match-up with the Mariners, who have been a bottom-five offense versus LHPs this season. Against southpaws, Seattle is batting just .197 with a .272 wOBA, 74 wRC+, and a huge 27.7% kRate (4th highest). Their kRate vs. LHPs has risen to 30.5% in the last two weeks, which is the highest mark in the MLB. Heaney’s 24.4% kRate this season is a only bit above average, but there is some sneaky double-digit strikeout upside to be had with him tonight and I could envision him flying a little under the radar on this slate.

Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.8k | vs. MIA

If you’re looking to completely punt at SP, Pfaadt may be worth a look in GPPs today -- though, primarily as an SP2 option on DraftKings. Pfaadt made his MLB debut last Wednesday and proceeded to get rocked by the Rangers -- 4.2 IP (82 PC), 9 H, 4 HR, 1 BB, 7 ER, 3 K. He was sort of thrown into the fire against a powerful Rangers offense that has averaged an MLB-best 6.67 runs/gm at home this season. However, Pfaadt has shown some strong strikeout potential in the minor leagues; outside of a six-start stretch at the Double-A level in 2021, Pfaadt has carded at least a 28.6% kRate and 10.4 K/9 rate in every other level of his MiLB progression.

Pfaadt will draw a much more favorable match-up in his second MLB start, and home MLB debut. The Marlins rank bottom-five versus RHPs in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ alongside a high 24.4% kRate (8th highest). There are really only three batters in this Miami lineup that could cause Pfaadt some major issues: Jazz Chisholm Jr. -- a dangerous lefty batter but is currently in the midst of a major slump and strikes out a ton (38.0% kRate vs. RHP), Yuli Gurrield -- just a solid all-around hitter who rarely strikes out (12.5% kRate vs. RHPs), and Luis Arraez -- the MLB’s current leader in batting average and OBP, but 40 of his 48 hits have been singles. Jesus Sanchez is a big bat as well, but he owns a high 32.3% kRate vs. RHPs alongside a good, but not elite, .344 wOBA and .158 ISO. Even against a bad offense, Pfaadt could show his inexperience and have another poor outing, but his bottom-of-the-barrel DFS salaries make him a worthy risk/reward option tonight in GPPs.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.5k | vs. WAS

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.9k | vs. TEX

Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.3k | @ KC (Keep an eye on the forecast)

Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY | DK: $6k, FD: $8.2k | vs. OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Drew Rucinski (RHP), OAK

+ Yankees: 5.2 implied runs (T-1st on the slate).

+ Rucinski has not impressed through two starts (and his first MLB action since 2018): 7.71 ERA, 6.46 xFIP, 2.25 WHIP, .453 opp wOBA.

+ OAK bullpen has been the worst in baseball: 6.70 ERA, 6.08 xFIP, 1.74 WHIP, 16.8% kRate.

+ There are plenty of affordable bats in this Yankees lineup.

+ NYY offers solid stolen base upside (29 SBs, ranks 8th).

-/+ NYY has been a bottom-five offense vs. RHPs L2Wks (79 wRC+, ranks 27th), but they are expected to have Aaron Judge (hip) back in the lineup today and they notched seven runs against OAK last night.

- NYY could be an uncomfortably chalky stack and they’ve been notorious for bombing in strong spots this season.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres | Bargain Bat: Harrison Bader

Chicago White Sox vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

Note: Keep an eye on the forecast in KC. There is some delay/PPD risk.

+ White Sox: 4.9 implied runs (ranks T-4th on the slate).

+ In a fairly sizable 35.0 IP sample size this season, Jordan Lyles has returned a poor 6.69 ERA, 6.00 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, and a high 58.3% Fly Ball Rate.

+ Lyles ranks in the bottom 5th percentile in the last 30 days with 12 barreled balls allowed and an average distance of 207.3 feet.

+ KC has had a bottom-10 bullpen this season.

+ Kauffman Stadium is the #6 most hitter-friendly ballpark.

+ Plenty of affordable bats in this CWS lineup.

- CWS has been a bottom-10 offense vs. RHPs this season.

Favorite CWS Bats: Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets | Bargain Bat: Hanser Alberto

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Boston Red Sox vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

+ Morton has held a respectable 3.38 ERA this season, but his 4.66 xFIP signifies some regression is due.

+ Morton has been poor vs. LHBs this season: 5.33 xFIP, 1.74 WHIP, .387 wOBA, .224 ISO, 1.88 HR/9 -- BOS has seven LHBs in their confirmed lineup today.

+ BOS has been a top-three offense vs. RHPs this season: .278 AVG (1st), .352 wOBA (2nd), .814 OPS (2nd), 118 wRC+ (3rd), 18.5% kRate (lowest in MLB).

+ BOS has been even hotter against RHPs in the last two weeks: .318 AVG, .382 wOBA, .884 OPS, 139 wRC+, 16.8% kRate.

+ Solid hitting conditions in ATL -- 80+ degrees at first pitch with ~10 mph winds blowing out to left.

+ Every BOS bat has a <10% pOwn%.

+/- BOS averaging 5.25 runs/gm on the road, but that is nearly a full run less per game than at home (6.20 runs/gm).

- ATL has a top-10 bullpen that leads the MLB with a 1.12 WHIP and is fresh off of an off day.

- Morton averages +62.3% more FPPG at home.

Favorite BOS Bats: Masatake Yoshida, Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers | Bargain Bat: Emmanuel Valdez

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Drew Rucinski (RHP), OAK

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Louie Varland (RHP), MIN

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), SD

2B/SS Thairo Estrada, SF | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF/SS Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), LAD

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

C Salvador Perez, KC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Max Kepler, MIN | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), SD

OF Michael Harris II, ATL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Mitch Haniger, SF | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Harrison Bader, NYY | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Drew Rucinski (RHP), OAK

1B Andrew Vaughn, CWS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

1B Ryan Noda, OAK | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

OF Jesus Sanchez, MIA | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

2B Emmanuel Valdez, BOS | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

OF JJ Bleday, OAK | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

OF Gavin Sheets, CWS | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), KC

OF Eddie Rosario, ATL | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

1B Yuli Gurriel, MIA | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Masatake Yoshida MORE than 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Anthony Rizzo MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!