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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

As usual, another Wednesday brings forth an all-day baseball affair with action going from noon (ET) ‘til night. Our focus will land on the seven-game main slate which will get underway a bit earlier than usual, by main slate standards, at 6:40 ET. While we’re still not seeing consistently strong offensive numbers across the MLB, this slate does seem to favor a higher-scoring atmosphere. The overall starting pitcher pool is a tad underwhelming, seven teams possess an implied run total of at least 4.8 runs, four games own at least a 9.0 over/under, and Coors Field is in play once again. On the surface, this looks like a fun mid-sized slate and only one game will have notable weather concerns -- more on that below. Let’s get down to business and best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ARI @ CIN (6:40 ET): This will be the primary game to monitor. Some storms look to arrive at, or shortly after, the scheduled first pitch and they don’t appear to be the kind that can be comfortably played through, especially if there is any nearby lightning involved. So, a lengthy delay is a strong possibility and a postponement is certainly on the table as well. Tomorrow’s series finale is scheduled for 1:10 ET so they may look to postpone tonight and squeeze in a Thursday doubleheader. We’ll 100% need to see how the forecast is shaping up closer to first pitch before comfortably rostering any players from this game -- fortunately, it is the opening game on the slate so we should have an idea of the teams’ intentions before lock.

• HOU @ NYY (7:05 ET): 80 degrees at first pitch with 10-15 mph winds blowing OUT to center. Quality hitting conditions.

• BOS @ ATL (7:20 ET): Low-end chance of a stray pop-up, mostly later in the evening, but not a major concern. Temps near 90 degrees at first pitch with 10 mph winds blowing a bit IN from right, a bit right-to-left.

• SEA @ MIN (7:40 ET): Low-end chance for some light, spotty showers but it would likely be nothing that would be severe enough to stop play.

• SF @ COL (8:40 ET): They’ll avoid some nearby wet weather. Temps in the mid-50s with light winds blowing IN from left/center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.5k | vs. BOS

Sale will lead the way in pitcher pricing on both sites today and he’s pretty deserving of these current salaries. While his 3.44 ERA is good but not spectacular, Sale’s 2.73 xFIP shows us that he is pitching better than his ERA would indicate. He has also turned in a sub-1.00 WHIP to go along with a sharp 29.0% kRate and an outstanding 15.4% SwStr%. Sale has allowed just an 82.6 mph average exit velocity over the last month, placing him in the 95th percentile of pitchers, and he has surrendered a low 19.4% HardContact% in that time as well. Finally, he has supplied at least six strikeouts in all six of his starts this season and he notched a season-high nine Ks in his most recent start last Wednesday.

I won’t be pushing any sort of “revenge” narrative as Sale takes on his former Red Sox team since there is no ill will between the two parties that I’m aware of. It does set up as an intriguing match-up, however. The usual lefty-heavy Red Sox lineup has done well, overall, against left-handed pitching and they have some RHB platoon hitters that they tend to sub in against LHP starters. Boston’s 109 wRC+ vs. LHPs this season is good for 11th in the MLB. The good news, for Sale anyhow, is that Boston strikes out a ton against LHPs with an MLB-high 29.5% kRate. If we dig deeper, we’ll see that Sale leans heavily on two pitch types -- the slider (44.6% of his pitches) and the four-seam fastball (38.4%). Against that pitch mix (from LHPs), the Red Sox have produced a meager .179 AVG (ranks 29th) to go along with a massive 38.5% kRate (highest in MLB). Sale has also shown favorable reverse splits -- .253 wOBA, .081 ISO, and 30.5% kRate vs. RHBs / .267 wOBA, .250 ISO, 22.2% kRate vs. LHBs -- so it won’t be a major concern if the Red Sox end up starting six or seven righties in their lineup. To wrap things up with the Vegas info, the Braves are heavy -208 ML favorites tonight and the Red Sox are tied for a slate-low 3.7 implied run total. It won’t surprise me in the least if Boston strings together a few hits and two or three runs on Sale, but the strikeouts should be abundant and he easily has the best chance to end the night as the highest-scoring pitcher on the slate.

Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.2k | @ WAS

Bradish made his season debut last Thursday after beginning the year on the IL due to a partially torn UCL. He didn’t pitch deep into the game, covering just 4.2 innings on 84 pitches, but he looked good against a quality Yankees opponent, holding them to one run on four hits and two walks while striking out five. Bradish’s four-seamer and sinker both sat around 95 mph in his start last week, which is directly in line with his 2023 average velocity, so it would seem that the elbow injury isn’t having any lingering effects. Bradish posted a breakout 2023 campaign where, across 30 starts (168.2 IP), he procured a 2.83 ERA, 3.53 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, .213 opp AVG, 0.75 HR/9 Rate, and 25.0% kRate. Bradish had a few rehab starts in the minor leagues, and while he will continue to be monitored closely from a workload standpoint, it was nice to see him hit a mid-80s pitch count to begin his season.

With their 3-0 victory over the Orioles yesterday, the 18-17 Nationals got over the .500 hump for the first time since July 1st, 2021. They are a scrappy team that I don’t necessarily go out of my way to target with pitching. However, they’ve got a ways to go before being anything close to an elite team, and, over their last two weeks against RHPs, they’ve posted a lackluster .210 AVG, .275 wOBA, .100 ISO, 76 wRC+, and 22.1% kRate. They’re not an overly strikeout-prone offense, but the kRate against righties has been creeping up lately. All things considered, if Bradish comes closer to a 90 or so pitch count, I could see him coming away with a quality start and five-to-seven strikeouts. The O’s are also strong -180 ML favorites so Bradish will have favorable odds to be in line for the win bonus as well.

Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.8k | vs. SEA

By my guesstimations, which are also supported by LineStar’s pOwn%, Chris Paddack and RHP Jordan Hicks (DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.3k) will set up as the two most popular value pitching targets on this slate. Despite taking the mound in Coors Field, Hicks does deserve a long look today against a bumbling Rockies lineup, but Paddack will snag the spotlighted segment today.

Paddack is not having a great season overall, by any means, but his 3.90 xFIP is nearly a run lower than his 4.78 ERA, and he’s done a nice job at limited free passes with a low 4.8% BB%. It’s not a large sample size to go off of, but Paddack has pitched much, much better at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of Target Field (#6 most pitcher-friendly ballpark in 2024). Here’s a quick look at his home/road splits from the early goings of 2024:

Home: 3 Starts, 17.2 IP, 1.02 ERA, 2.47 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, .209 opp AVG, and 30.0% kRate.

Road: 3 Starts, 14.1 IP, 9.42 ERA, 5.70 xFIP, 2.09 WHIP, .394 opp AVG, and 8.3% kRate.

Surely, as the season progresses, those splits will even out a bit but those are some stark results thus far. Of course, most people know the real reason why Paddack is getting some recognition today. The Mariners continue to strike out at an extremely high clip -- they own a 29.0% kRate vs. RHPs this season (highest in MLB), which has climbed slightly to a 30.7% kRate L2Weeks. As a team, they’re hitting just .202 vs. RHPs L2Weeks next to a lackluster .283 wOBA and 87 wRC+. Paddack is far from an elite arm, and his early-season home/road splits may be a bit of a mirage at the moment, but it’s worth taking a shot on him versus the most strikeout-prone offense in the MLB.

Other Pitchers to Consider

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $9k, FD: $9.5k | @ MIN

Aaron Civale (RHP), TB | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CWS

Jordan Hicks (RHP), SF | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.3k | @ COL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Francisco Giants vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), SF

Non-Coors Stacks

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

+ Rays: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ After a slow start offensively, the Rays’ offense has been heating up -- over the last week, they’re posting a .278 AVG (2nd), .801 OPS (4th), .359 wOBA (3rd), 137 wRC+ (3rd), and 17.7% kRate (4th lowest).

+ Flexen owns a slate-worst 5.32 xFIP this season, a high 46.9% FlyBall Rate, and an average batted ball distance of 192.6 feet L30Days (bottom 10th percentile).

+ Flexen’s 9.6% Walk Rate is not far off from his lowly 13.6% kRate -- the Rays own an MLB-best 15.4% Walk Rate vs. RHPs over the last week.

+ The Rays have a lofty 158 wRC+ vs. RHPs at home L2Weeks (172 plate appearances).

+ The White Sox bullpen has struggled: 4.65 ERA, 4.59 xFIP, and 1.51 WHIP (L2Weeks).

+ Tropicana Field has ranked as the #6 home run park this season.

- The Rays faced Flexen two weeks ago and did minimal damage -- Flexen’s final line vs. TB on 4/26: 5.0 IP (72 pitches), 2 H, 3 BB, 0 ER, 2 K.

- Flexen throws the four-seamer and cutter on over 60% of his pitches -- the Rays rank 18th in xwOBA against that pitch mix.

Favorite TB Bats: Isaac Paredes, Randy Arozarena, Amed Rosario

Bargain Bat: Jonny DeLuca

Houston Astros vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

+ The Astros have been a top 10 offense vs. LHPs: .270 AVG (6th), .777 OPS (6th), .343 wOBA (6th), .169 ISO (7th), 123 wRC+ (6th), and 16.2% kRate (lowest in MLB).

+ Rodon has an ‘okay’ 3.68 ERA through seven starts but his 4.59 xFIP suggests some regression is due.

+ Rodon has allowed a high 48.6% FlyBall Rate and 43.8% HardHit%.

+ Great hitting conditions at Yankee Stadium today with warm temps around 80 degrees and 10-15 mph winds blowing out to center field.

-/+ The Yankees’ bullpen has put up an MLB-best 2.22 ERA and .193 opp AVG, however, their 4.23 xFIP checks in at 19th in the MLB so they’ve benefited from a great deal of luck.

-/+ In his first start of the season, Rodon did hold this Astros lineup to just one run across his 4.1 IP, though, Houston still had a fair amount of traffic on the bases with five hits and three walks against him.

- The Astros have been less effective on the road, averaging 4.00 runs/gm (vs. 5.13 runs/gm at home).

Favorite HOU Bats: Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Jeremy Pena

Bargain Bat: Jon Singleton

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago White Sox vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), TB

+ Every hitter in the projected White Sox lineup has a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Civale had a strong start to the season but he comes into tonight’s game in some rough form -- over his last three starts, he has come away with an 11.85 ERA, 2.05 WHIP, .349 opp AVG, and .398 opp wOBA.

+ The White Sox offense has been somewhat improved lately -- over the last two weeks, their .653 OPS and 84 wRC+ vs. RHPs ranks 18th and 20th in the MLB, respectively… a sizable jump from their season-long .601 OPS (ranks last) and 72 wRC+ (29th).

+ The White Sox have scored at least five runs in seven of their last 12 games -- their 53 total runs and 13 HRs in that span rank 16th in the MLB.

+ The Rays bullpen has had its fair share of struggles this season and their 5.01 xFIP L2Weeks ranks last in the MLB.

+ The entire CWS lineup is affordable.

A big negative here… it’s still the White Sox and they’re capable of being shut out on any given night.

- Civale’s 11.85 ERA over his last three starts is backed up by a much stronger 4.08 xFIP, so he was the victim of some extremely poor luck during that recent stretch.

Favorite CWS Bats: Tommy Pham, Eloy Jimenez, Gavin Sheets

Bargain Bat: Andrew Benintendi

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), ARI (Monitor weather)

SS CJ Abrams, WAS | DK: $6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

2B Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), SF

C Adley Rutschman, BAL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN (Monitor weather)

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

3B Isaac Paredes, TB | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

OF Max Kepler, MIN | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

2B Thairo Estrada, SF | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), COL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B LaMonte Wade Jr., SF | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), COL

OF Trevor Larnach, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

OF Tommy Pham, CWS | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), TB

3B Josh Rojas, SEA | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

2B Jonathan India, CIN | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), ARI (Monitor weather)

OF Alex Verdugo, NYY | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

2B Luis Garcia Jr., WAS | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

OF Hunter Goodman, COL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), SF

2B Brendan Rodgers, COL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP), SF

OF Jonny DeLuca, TB | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

2B Jorge Mateo, BAL | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

OF Jarred Kelenic, ATL | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

1B Jon Singleton, HOU | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Adley Rutschman MORE than 7.0 Hitter Fantasy Score

Isaac Paredes MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!