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- Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 5/8 | Previewing Monday's Well-Rounded Eight-Game Slate!
Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 5/8 | Previewing Monday's Well-Rounded Eight-Game Slate!
Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.
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Main Slate Rundown 🏟
I hope everyone had a great weekend! A nice eight-game MLB main slate will kick us off this week. We’ve got some decent starting pitchers on the board today along with several solid, but no outright “obvious,” stack options. Let’s jump into it! Best of luck!
Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:
Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️
Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.
OAK @ NYY (7:05 ET): Winds mostly OUT to right, a bit left to right, at 10+ mph.
STL @ CHC (7:40 ET): Some afternoon rain begins to clear out around first pitch. As long as the field isn’t soaked, there should be no problems here -- but perhaps a bit of a late start may be needed for field maintenance. Stiff cross winds blowing left to right at 15-20 mph.
MIA @ ARI (9:40 ET): The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be open. Slight bump to bats.
Pitchers to Consider ⚾
Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.3k | vs. MIA
Gallen sets up as the clear spend-up option on this slate. His hot streak came to an end against a great Rangers offense last Tuesday, but he’s still been dominant over his previous five starts that have resulted in a 0.84 ERA, 1.30 xFIP, 0.59 WHIP, .167 opp wOBA, and 41.6% kRate. In those five starts that spanned 32.0 IP, Gallen issued just a single walk and of the 18 base hits he allowed, 14 were singles with zero home runs. The guy is just locked in right now and showing excellent command of the strike zone. He has also dominated in all three home starts this season, posting performances of 39.9 DKFP/65 FDFP, 40.6 DKFP/64 FDFP, and 39.4 DKFP/64 DKFP.
Gallen draws a plus match-up today against a Marlins team that owns a 24.4% kRate (8th highest) and 76 wRC+ (ranks 26th) versus RHPs this season. Miami’s effectiveness against righties has dwindled even further when facing RHPs on the road in the last two weeks (203 plate appearances): .179 AVG, .228 wOBA, 39 wRC+, and 26.1% kRate. In 57 PA against the current Marlins roster, Gallen has also held them to a meager .125 AVG, .153 wOBA, and 31.6% kRate. Gallen will be poised for another stud performance this evening and he’s well worth those five-figure DFS price tags.
Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10k | vs. LAD
Bit of a riskier pick here, but if you wanna pivot away from the likely Gallen chalk, Peralta makes sense in GPPs. Peralta has been strong across four home starts this season, putting up a 2.66 ERA, 3.91 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, .255 opp wOBA, and 27.1% kRate. Peralta also leads all SPs on this slate with a 14.1% SwStr% and he’s coming off of an impressive Coors Field start where he pitched six innings, allowing two runs while striking out 10 batters.
The risk factor with Peralta will stem from his match-up with the Dodgers. However, after playing the Padres in Sunday Night Baseball last night, they come in off of a short travel day to Milwaukee. The Dodgers' offense has also been nearly non-existent when facing RHPs on the road in the last two weeks (178 PA): .181 AVG, .247 wOBA, 50 wRC+, and they’ve had a lofty 25.8% kRate in that sample size. Peralta has some strong BvP history against the current Dodgers lineup as well -- in 69 PA, he’s held them to a .133 AVG, .235 wOBA, and 24.6% kRate. Peralta could easily finish the night as a top one or two scoring SPs while checking in at <10% ownership. I’m not sure I would roll him out in a cash lineup but for GPPs? Absolutely.
Anthony DeSclafani (RHP), SF | DK: $8.1k, FD: $10.2k | vs. WAS
DeSclafani doesn’t come in at a discount on FanDuel, where he is the second-most expensive SP this evening. However, his $8,100 tag on DraftKings (8th most expensive SP) makes him one of the more appealing SP2 options on the slate. Outside of a lackluster start against the Mets on April 21st, DeSclafani has held his other five opponents to two earned runs or fewer. He checks in with a slate-best 2.13 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. He has also allowed just three walks across 38.0 IP this season, equating to a slate-low 2.1% BB%. While it wasn’t a flashy strikeout-heavy outing, DeSclafani pitched an absolute gem in his last start in Houston where he covered eight shutout innings, allowing just three hits. He did throw 109 pitches in that game, but he’s also coming into tonight’s game on six days rest so fatigue shouldn’t be a major concern.
By now we know a couple of things about this Nationals offense; while they may not strike out very often (19.9% kRate vs. RHPs, 3rd lowest), they also don’t hit righties well, nor with much power. Their 79 wRC+ vs. RHPs ranks them 26th and they own an MLB-low .099 ISO this season. The Giants (-220 ML) check in as the heaviest favorites on today’s slate and DeSclafani, who has covered at least six full innings in five of six starts this season, can offset the lack of major strikeout upside with his ability to pitch deep into games.
Other Pitchers to Consider:
Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.3k | vs. OAK
Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9k, FD: $9.5k | vs. TEX
Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.8k | vs. STL
Team Stacks to Target 🎯
Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA
+ D-Backs: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).
+ Garrett enters with a slate-worst 5.81 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, .399 wOBA, and 91.4 mph average exit velocity.
+ ARI is averaging 5.53 runs/gm at home.
+ ARI ranks 6th with a 33.7% HardContact% vs. LHPs.
+ MIA has had a bottom-10 bullpen that has posted a 4.47 ERA, 4.51 xFIP, and 1.51 HR/9 Rate.
+ The roof being open at Chase Field provides a slight bump to bats.
-/+ ARI has been a very average offense vs. LHPs this season: .321 wOBA (ranks 17th) and 99 wRC+ (ranks 19th).
- Garrett’s high ERA is backed up by a not-so-terrible 4.00 xFIP and he was performing well as a starter prior to his last start where he got blown up by the Braves (4.1 IP, 14 H, 4 HR, 2 BB, 11 ER).
Favorite ARI Bats: Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | Bargain Bat: Geraldo Perdomo
San Francisco Giants vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS
+ Giants: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).
+ Jake Irvin will be making just his second career MLB start and the first road start.
+ Irvin held the Cubs to one run on two hits in his debut, but he struggled to command the zone, issuing four walks across his 4.1 IP.
+ Irvin had some poor results across his 22.1 IP in Triple-A this year: 5.64 ERA, 5.35 xFIP, and 1.52 WHIP.
+ SF is arguably a top-five offense vs. RHPs: .346 wOBA (ranks 4th), .214 ISO (3rd), and 118 wRC+ (5th).
+ WAS has had a bottom-10 bullpen this season.
- SF has been much worse offensively at home where they have averaged 3.82 runs/gm (5.19 runs/gm on the road).
- SF has an MLB-high 26.1% kRate vs. RHPs.
Favorite SF Bats: Thairo Estrada, JD Davis, LaMonte Wade Jr. | Bargain Bat: Blake Sabol
Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔
Kansas City Royals vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS
+ Cease in his last four starts (19.0 IP): 7.11 ERA, 5.59 xFIP, .321 opp AVG, .406 opp wOBA.
+ KC’s offense has been heating up; over the last week, they own a .399 wOBA, .368 ISO, and 154 wRC+.
+ CWS has had one of the worst bullpens in the MLB: 6.15 ERA, 4.47 xFIP, 1.64 WHIP, 1.65 HR/9 Rate.
+ Kauffman Stadium is the #6 most hitter-friendly ballpark.
+ KC ranks 5th in the MLB with a 34.3% HardContact%.
-/+ On the season, KC has been one of the worst offenses vs. RHPs (75 wRC+, ranks 29th), however, in the last two weeks, their 108 wRC+ vs. RHPs ranks 11th.
- Cease is a high-caliber starter who could snap back into “ace-level form” at any moment.
- Cease averaged +27.2% more FPPG on the road and has a 2.92 ERA, 3.13 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP, and 31.3% kRate in three road starts this season.
Favorite KC Bats: Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Bobby Witt Jr. | Bargain Bat: Nick Pratto
One-Off Bats ☝️
A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.
OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU
OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA
1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC
2B/SS Thairo Estrada, SF | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS
OF Jarred Kelenic, SEA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX
C Salvador Perez, KC | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS
1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA
1B Nathaniel Lowe, TEX | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA
OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC
Bargain Batters 💸
Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.
Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings
OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY
1B/3B DJ LeMahieu, NYY | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK
3B JD Davis, SF | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS
OF Harrison Bader, NYY | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK
1B/OF LaMonte Wade Jr., SF | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS
C/OF Blake Sabol, SF | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS
OF Andrew Benintendi, CWS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC
SS Ezequiel Duran, TEX | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA
C Carlos Perez, OAK | DK: $2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY
Home Run Calls of the Day 💣
⚾️ Home Run Calls ⚾️
@ShannonOnSports- Harrison Bader
@flattyler83- Jared Kelenic
@Ryan_Humphries - Christian Walker
Retweet, and if your expert's player hits a home run, you could win $25 or a 1-month subscription! We'll match each expert's call with 3 lucky retweeters.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…— 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗥 𝗗𝗙𝗦 & 𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗣𝗦 (@LineStarApp)
6:58 PM • May 8, 2023
Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Harrison Bader MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Anthony DeSclafani MORE than 30.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score
🆕 Props AI 🆕
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.
Best of luck out there today, everyone!
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