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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ve got ourselves a solid eight-game MLB main slate to dive into! Last night’s slate had a bit of a slow start on the offensive side but I believe this one will begin with a few more fireworks at the plate. Pitching is still fairly solid overall today, but there are several volatile arms taking the mound, and we’ll also have Coors Field back in play. On the weather front, a few games will have to dodge a bit of rain, but no games are currently in any danger of being postponed. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• BOS @ ATL (7:20 ET): One of the warmest weather games to date this season with temps in the mid-80s to begin the game. Winds will be blowing IN from right around 10 mph, but we still may see some well-struck fly balls travel a little farther, given the warm air temps.

• MIL @ KC (7:40 ET): Light winds near 10 mph mostly blowing OUT to left.

• SD @ CHC (7:40 ET): Winds OUT to center at 10+ mph at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field. Slight bump to bats. There will be potential for a late start as some rain may be clearing around first pitch but, once they get going, there should be no further issues.

• SEA @ MIN (7:40 ET): Another spot where a late start could be a possibility as rain clears around first pitch, but the game should play fine once it gets going. Light winds OUT to center.

• NYM @ STL (7:45 ET): 10 mph winds OUT to center. Slight bump to bats.

• SF @ COL (8:40 ET): Hitters will have to cut through some noticeable crosswinds that will be blowing left-to-right around 15-20 mph. Cool temps around 50 degrees as well. It’s still Coors Field, but not the best hitting conditions this evening.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.2k | vs. MIA

While I’m not overly thrilled with the five-figure DFS salaries, the two budding Japanese star pitchers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga (DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.6k), are deserving of the top pitcher salaries on this slate. We’ll place the spotlight on Yamamoto as he takes on the soft-hitting Marlins at home while being backed up by an elite offense. If we throw out his first official outing back on March 21st in the Seoul Series, in which Yamamoto pitched just one inning after giving up five runs, we’ll find that he has since gone on to post a stellar 1.64 ERA, 2.62 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, and 30.5% kRate spanning his previous six starts. The one hangup with Yamamoto is that he does allow a fair amount of barreled balls, and has allowed six over the last 30 days (bottom 20th percentile).

Fortunately, he’s up against a Marlins offense that owns the fifth-lowest barrel rate this season at just 6.1%. Miami also heads in with a lowly .293 wOBA and 88 wRC+ vs. RHPs this season. Their kRate against RHPs only sits at 20.6%, the eighth-lowest in the MLB, but there are some strikeouts to be had throughout this lineup -- Jazz Chisholm Jr., Bryan De La Cruz, and Tim Anderson all have kRates of at least 26% against righties this season. It also doesn’t hurt Yamamoto’s K upside that arguably the peskiest at-bat in baseball, Luis Arraez (3.1% kRate vs. RHPs this season), is now playing for the San Diego Padres. The Dodgers will step in as absurdly heavy -305 ML favorites and Yamamoto is in a strong spot to extend his quality start streak to four consecutive games.

Luis Gil (RHP), NYY | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.7k | vs. HOU

Gil has been an intriguing pitcher to follow this season and he heads into tonight’s action with a slate-best 2.28 xERA alongside an excellent 30.8% kRate. He also continues to lead all MLB starters (min. 20 IP) with a 26.1% HardHit% allowed. Walks have plagued him at times this season, and his Walk Rate is still over 15%, but the good news is that he has limited his opponents to only six walks across his last three starts.

The match-up is a tricky one. While it isn’t reflected in their 12-22 record, the Astros still boast a very capable offense that also happens to have the lowest kRate (17.1%) versus RHPs this season. Gil also throws only a three-pitch mix which features a four-seamer (59.3% of pitches), changeup (23.6%), and slider (17.1%). Against that pitch mix (from RHPs), the Astros rank 3rd in the MLB with a .280 AVG, 4th with a .357 wOBA, and a league-low 16.6% kRate. That said, Gil did shut down one of the hottest offenses in baseball, the Baltimore Orioles, in his last outing, throwing 6.1 shutout innings, giving up just two hits and a walk, and he came away with 26.5 DKFP/44 FDFP. If folks are going to shy away from Gil due to the less-than-ideal match-up, I believe he’ll be worth some shares from a leverage standpoint.

Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. SEA

After a disastrous opening start to his 2024 season where he gave up eight earned runs to the Royals across just 1.1 IP, Bailey Ober has since been a steady performer. Over his previous five starts, Ober has procured a 2.37 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, 0.76 WHIP, .163 opp AVG, and 24.3% kRate. He’ll also draw a home start at the pitcher-friendly Target Field where he has averaged +30.3% more FPPG.

As you might expect, this play is much more enticing due to the match-up. The Mariners continue to strike out at an absurdly high rate -- their 29.1% kRate vs. RHPs on the season is the highest in the MLB and that has bumped up to a 30.9% kRate over the last two weeks to go along with a .192 AVG and 85 wRC+. Ober has cleared at least 6.0 IP in four consecutive starts and the Twins head in as solid -149 ML favorites. I expect Ober will draw high ownership, especially after RHP Simeon Woods Richardson put up 8 Ks and 28.3 DKFP/46 FDFP against Seattle last night, but it’s some chalk I’d be willing to eat. Under the right circumstances, Ober could realistically emerge as the highest-scoring pitcher on this evening’s slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.4k | vs. BOS

Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9k | @ ATL

Seth Lugo (RHP), KC | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9.7k | vs. MIL (DK Preferred)

Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF | DK: $6.4k, FD: $8.6k | @ COL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Francisco Giants vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

Non-Coors Stacks

Chicago Cubs vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

+ Cubs: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 2nd among non-Coors teams).

+ Vasquez has just two starts this season, one being a Coors Field game, so his 2024 numbers do not account for a great sample size. However, in 45.1 IP at the MLB level since the start of 2023, he has posted some lackluster results: 3.38 ERA, 5.26 xFIP, 1.37 WHIP, 18.7% kRate, and 39.6% HardHit%.

+ The Cubs have been almost night and day better at home this season where they’re averaging an MLB-best 5.85 runs/gm (versus 4.21 runs/gm on the road). Wrigley Field will also have some nice hitting conditions this evening with 10+ mph winds blowing out to center.

+ Cubs vs. RHPs at home this season: .256 AVG (5th), .766 OPS (2nd), .341 wOBA (2nd), .164 ISO (7th), and 122 wRC+ (2nd).

-/+ The Padres bullpen has been middle-of-the-road: 4.05 ERA, 4.08 xFIP, and 1.26 WHIP.

- A Cubs stack is likely going to be a little chalky with six hitters in the projected lineup having at least a 10% pOwn%.

- Again, small sample size with just two 2024 starts, but Vasquez has allowed just one barreled ball across his 7.2 IP this season.

Favorite CHC Bats: Christopher Morel, Nico Hoerner, Michael Busch

Bargain Bat: Mike Tauchman

Kansas City Royals vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

+ Royals: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 1st among non-Coors teams).

+ The Royals are another offense that has excelled at home where they’re averaging 5.18 runs/gm (vs. 4.00 runs/gm away).

+ Colin Rea has managed to pull off a strong 2.67 ERA through his six starts, however, he’s been quite lucky to maintain that low of an ERA based on his slate-worst 5.74 xERA alongside a subpar 4.58 xFIP.

+ Rea: 10 barreled balls allowed L30Days (bottom 5th percentile).

+ Royals have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs at home this season: .260 AVG (4th), .757 OPS (6th), .335 wOBA (7th), .167 ISO (6th), 110 wRC+ (9th), and 16.9% kRate (lowest in MLB).

+ Kauffman Stadium: #3 most hitter-friendly ballpark in 2024.

-/+ The Brewers have a middle-of-the-road bullpen: 3.81 ERA, 3.95 xFIP, and 1.28 WHIP.

- The Royals bats have cooled off in recent weeks -- they have posted a 91 wRC+ (ranks 18th) L2Weeks vs. RHPs.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino

Bargain Bat: Michael Massey

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

New York Yankees vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU

+ Every hitter in the confirmed Yankees lineup has a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Verlander has maintained a 2.08 ERA through his three starts this season, but his poor 4.70 xFIP suggests some considerable regression is due.

+ Verlander has not generated many strikeouts our swing-and-miss pitches with a 19.1% kRate and so-so 10.0% SwStr%.

+ The Yankees have been a top-five offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .267 AVG (5th), .819 OPS (3rd), .360 wOBA (3rd), .209 ISO (2nd), and 137 wRC+ (3rd).

+ The Astros have had a borderline bottom-10 bullpen: 4.44 ERA, 4.14 xFIP, and 1.38 WHIP.

-/+ Yankees: 4.5 implied runs (ranks 8th among non-Coors teams).

- The Yankees have been much less effective at home (3.92 runs/gm) versus on the road (5.15 runs/gm).

- Verlander has allowed a low 85.9 mph average exit velo (top 85th percentile).

Favorite NYY Bats: Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Alex Verdugo

Bargain Bat: Jon Berti

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

OF Juan Soto, NYY | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

OF Kyle Tucker, HOU | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Luis Gil (RHP), NYY

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

C Willson Contreras, STL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jose Butto (RHP), NYM

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.1k, FD:  $3.6k| vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), ALD

C Ryan Jeffers, MIN | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

3B Manny Machado, SD | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Shota Imanaga (RHP), CHC

3B Christopher Morel, CHC | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

2B Thairo Estrada, SF | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Trevor Larnach, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

1B LaMonte Wade Jr., SF | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), COL

OF Mike Tauchman, CHC | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

OF Jurickson Profar, SD | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Shota Imanaga (RHP), CHC

OF/SS Willi Castro, MIN | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

2B Brendan Rodgers, COL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

OF Alex Verdugo, NYY | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU

C Jacob Stallings, COL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

3B Josh Rojas, SEA | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

OF Sean Bouchard, COL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

2B Michael Massey, KC | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

3B/SS Jon Berti, NYY | DK: $3k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU

2B Vaughn Grissom, BOS | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Bobby Witt Jr. MORE than 9.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

Reynaldo Lopez MORE than 15.5 Pitching Outs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!